It is always important to define the "theme" and personality of the NPCs, and then translate them to rules representation that also fit the PCs.
Basically, in my game, you may opt to gain additional points to allocate if you do something of the following:
- provide background story for the character - it works best if its sketchy but tells about all important turning points of character career. For example, you have an exceptional Wisdom score - how did you develop it? How did it change the way you live? Did it come into play significantly - if so, when and how, if not, why?
- provide names, class levels, professions and attitudes of all family members
- promise to write diary (laconic and regular entries are best - I don't need hundreds of pages, I just want detailed record of character experiences for future usage)
Something similar happens to NPCs. Their initial descriptions are sketchy (class levels and some skills). Through interactions with PCs and game world and if they gain importance, they will gain more details. Otherwise, they rely on certain standards for less important NPCs (basically, base stats, total score of 2-3 key skills and some defining notes).
I think in many cases where you don't know what the outcome of an off-screen NPC interaction is, you can just flip a coin. If you think a certain thing is more likely, you can use dice. But do you need actual statistics?
Coin flip does not acknowledge circumstances, NPC defining traits and does not contain hints as to NPCs further decisions.
For your example of the archaeological expedition or the attempt to heal the weakening brother, wouldn't you need to set both the NPCs skill values and their DCs? Doesn't this mean you actually already decided the likely results beforehand?
Digression: he is not actually weakening. He is developing aggressive separate personality, whose driving goal is to destroy the vessel. Right now, the intruder is somewhat limited to seldom acts leading to grievious body harm since intruders perception of surroundings is lacking. In game terms, think about psychological version of side effects of Clone spell, where the perceived enemy is the host's personality and host's body.
I know skills and DCs (at least for the next bout of rolls). The results will allow me to decide on both future course of actions and future DCs. These are ongoing side plots of which development is done at certain time intervals.
So, no, I haven't decided anything yet. They may or may not succeed. We'll see about that later.
Of course, sometimes NPCs might just "accidentally" stumble into a situation where they need a skill you haven't thought of yet. But a fallible DM could _really_ have forgotten that skill (it happened to me even as a player sometimes), and it would have made sense for the NPC to have it, but he doesn't! Of course, if you didn't make this mistake, will it still turn out to give you the results that will benefit the story?
Who knows? There is a good chance it will benefit the story (that's why it is being developed).
The stats are at my fingertips. There is not much chance that I will forget something.
Of course, the latter thing is probably narrative thinking. From a simulation perspective, things don't have to go according to a "story". They just happen how they would happen in a fictional world.
My complaint about that approach is that it risks too much. The chance of ending up with a less interesting story-line is not outweighed with something beneficial for me as a player or as a DM.
Usually, the most developed stories are those which are happening in PC's vicinity. The others are usually decided with a simple, less detailed roll.
The risk is acceptable to me for the following reasons:
- I have several stories, so the probability of some of them ending up usable is very high,
- new stories are often spawned by PCs actions,
- even failed stories sometimes make it to players knowledge through discovery of diaries or via witness accounts,
- sometimes, at the end of a story arc, the stories which finished off stage or those which became immaterial and are considered closed, will be related by me in a form of series of epilogues.
For example, once upon a time I ran a few campaigns in KULT. This game relies on deception and lies, so chances of players learning actual data is slim. And so, at the end of each story, there was something I call "warm afterglow" moment, where everyone was sitting comfortably, and everyone was asking questions (not just me, many players had their own stories to tell, the secret backgrounds, the side trips with GM to another room).
Since then I have been using this method to enlighten players, thus making the world more believable and PCs more involved. An example of early such event in Scarred Lands campaign:
- a Dirty-Dozen hero, Alif, took an opportunity to sell a horse (property of city of Mithril), an expensive one at that, to not-entirely-honest merchant.
- the crime was discovered by stable hands, but it would be hard for PR to announce that one of the famous Mithril Heroes has succumbed to plain greed.
- during official award giving ceremony one of the gifts presented to our heroes, the one presented to Alif, was a very well preserved (mummified) hand of a human male.
- Alif, being rather freaked out by this gift, understood the hint and never stole from the city coffers later. He also never asked questions.
- The players, of course, wanted to know what actually happened. The horse sold by Alif was worth much more than the thief thought it to be - it was groomed to become a real paladin warhorse, its just that it's owner died. And, as means of elevating the status, it was presented to the Heroes of Mithril.
The outrage at selling one was considerable. However, for political reasons, it was to be kept quiet. So, the merchant had been visited by two paladins and cleric, told explicitly about his crime and informed about three possible options - years of sentence aboard a ship or at forges, gallows or yielding his right hand (and his head if he does not behave himself). In the end, merchant being the family man, have decided to yield his hand.
The players were suitably terrified at this harsh sentence, but at the same time, they were taught an important lesson about crime and punishment in the city rule by people who feel it is their divine right to rule (and who can find out guilty parties fast). They have been also informed, that the merchant received tax exempt for one year to alleviate the stress of hiring one more scribe to write.
The story took place in the background, the merchant made his rolls (during purchase of the horse and later, during interrogation) and so the side story ended.
Regards,
Ruemere
PS. Disclaimer: Paladins of Mithril in my campaign are good and nice guys. Just don't cross them since they are not very good at forgiving.