[Forked Thread: The 3.5 renaissance!] Three Years in the future - What will WotC do?
That's a lot of wishing
It is even despite the triple post for which I have no explanation as to why that occurred.
ProfessorPain
First Post
This isn't a bad idea. I remember I played a quazi-D&D board game before playing D&D, and it is what really got me interested (actually I think it was the old Lord of the Rings board game from the 70s, but I remember there usd to be a game called dungeon as well). Board game is an easy concept for most people to understand; whereas Role Playing Games takes a bit more explaining. If they had a D&D board game available at Toy Stores, it could be a spring board to RPGs for kids who might otherwise not play.
I'll give you the complete book of elves, they turned elves into supermen. Then again, all the abilities gained in the complete elves would also apply to any elf characters already in existence. The kits available weren't any better than kits in previous books, and neither were any of the other options. The player's option books were a completely different rules system, and all characters would have to be rebuilt if a campaign made the switch. Both those examples are completely different than creating new races and classes that are inherently superior to the ones that came before.
Xyxox
Hero
4) Shelve it.
Under the conditions you've described, there's no compelling business reason to continue down the D&D road and no compelling business reason to sell off the IP.
The IP may be generating a profit, but not enough profit. A product line simply being profitable is not enough in business. The key is return on investment and the return under the conditions yoiu describe simply does not rise to the level of a successful product line.
The only answer is to shelve the IP.
Under the conditions you've described, there's no compelling business reason to continue down the D&D road and no compelling business reason to sell off the IP.
The IP may be generating a profit, but not enough profit. A product line simply being profitable is not enough in business. The key is return on investment and the return under the conditions yoiu describe simply does not rise to the level of a successful product line.
The only answer is to shelve the IP.
Dice4Hire
First Post
I agree that is the only sane option, Selling an IP that has brought this much money into a company, even if no longer doing so, is madness. HAsbro has tons of IPs siting in their stocks, on the off chance they might be abe to make a profit again.
But I just do not think 4E is failing as badly as most posters make it out to be. Seems like there i a lot of wishful thinking going on here.
dm4hire
Explorer
The problem with selling the IP off as far as Hasbro goes is that if it ever gets to the point it isn't worth doing the game they would bury it under a ton of consolidated debt and push it off to the side. Thus forcing whoever might be interested in picking it up to assume the whole mess. In the mean time they'd probably claim it as a tax break since they lost money on it. Most likely the game would be shelved and after a few years or decades they'd dust it off and return it, playing off the nostalgia surrounding it, hoping to at least make a brief profit before once more shelving it.
D&D would enter the Disney structure of gaming at that point. By this I mean Disney's approach with their classic movies being returned to the vault for a ten year period and then re-released to a new generation. In effect instead of continually updating it the game would just be put out as it was in the final version over and over again after whatever time gap Hasbro decided upon.
Actually that's not a bad marketing strategy if you think about it. Fine tune the game as best you can eliminating the need for errata. Print a limited number of copies. Sell until they are gone, covering say a period of two years or so. Continue making support products for another two to three years. Then re-release the core at the five year mark. You'd still be making support products, such as modules, but with the re-release you'd be gaining new players into the fold without causing a rift between existing players.
D&D would enter the Disney structure of gaming at that point. By this I mean Disney's approach with their classic movies being returned to the vault for a ten year period and then re-released to a new generation. In effect instead of continually updating it the game would just be put out as it was in the final version over and over again after whatever time gap Hasbro decided upon.
Actually that's not a bad marketing strategy if you think about it. Fine tune the game as best you can eliminating the need for errata. Print a limited number of copies. Sell until they are gone, covering say a period of two years or so. Continue making support products for another two to three years. Then re-release the core at the five year mark. You'd still be making support products, such as modules, but with the re-release you'd be gaining new players into the fold without causing a rift between existing players.
BryonD
Hero
Some grey zone of 1 and 2.
With the addition that there will probably be some new angle on the whole thing. Probably more presumption of computer involvement. I'm not at all saying "4E is too computer gamey and 5E will go even farther". I'm saying that the assumption of computer tools at hand will only grow and impact overall society and D&D will just be along for that ride. No specific details on my prediction, just a general expectation. (8E will involve 3D virtual reality though )
As much as I love 3E, I'm the first to admit that it has well and fully run its course economically. My negative attitude toward 4E has nothing to do with 3E neogrognardism. I was pumped about a new edition and ready to move on. It was the details of 4E itself that turned me off.
The reason I say that is to point out that as a HUGE 3E fan, I was really ready to move on when 4E was announced. 4E was announced in August 2007. That is only seven years after 3E was released.
And 3E had 3.5 helping it along. There is no question that 3.5 was a kick in the teeth to the 3PPs. But WotC was able to push a reset button and recycle a ton of product titles. It extended the economic viability of 3E for WotC themselves.
So we have around seven years of life. Some time before that WotC had decided it was time to start over, and another year after that before 4E was ready to hit shelves. So the life is in the 6 to 8 year range. Call it 8, because that is how long it takes to birth the replacement.
WotC has promised that 4.5 won't happen. Now, they could certainly see the hand writing on the wall and change their mind. And that would undermine my thinking. But for now I will assume they keep that promise. That takes the reset button out.
Also, one of the big points that 4E fans praise about it is its appeal to a wider fan base. I accept that. I just believe that is a short term plan. Since D&D first saw light, there have been gamers and non-gamers. Shades of grey certainly. But we all know that the distinctions exist. Being a non-gamer does not mean you won't play D&D. But you are not going to be somebody who buys a lot of product. 4E has tapped into a lot more of these people than any prior edition. And 4E has lost some hard core gamers as a trade off. But, probably a very solid net plus in terms of total headcount. The problem is, the non-gamers are going to move on. They are not going to wake up one morning and decide they need to flee this geek thing they find themselves enjoying. They will just find that other things will come along. It much more a fad than a hobby.
Of course there are always new gamers coming along all the time. And the current version of D&D is very likely to be the first stop for these people as well. These will be true "new gamers" that start with 4E. Many of them will be 4E gamers. But many of them will move on to something that is more gamer targeted rather than staying with the casual based 4E.
So you have 6 to 8 years, minus reset button, minus fad support factor.
To brush on edition war, I also believe that even a lot of gamer fans will find that the homogenization and simplification will result in faster burn out. That doesn't mean you are not loving it now. But ask around. A lot of people who loved 3E are done. It happens. It will happen again. I just strongly believe it will happen (is happening) faster.
The 6 to 8 year window is a very optimistic target.
But they are not going to leave D&D. Everything is for sale. And they could dump it if the right offer came along. And the right offer may be less in the near future than it is now. But D&D isn't going away.
But right now the wheel is spinning faster.
With the addition that there will probably be some new angle on the whole thing. Probably more presumption of computer involvement. I'm not at all saying "4E is too computer gamey and 5E will go even farther". I'm saying that the assumption of computer tools at hand will only grow and impact overall society and D&D will just be along for that ride. No specific details on my prediction, just a general expectation. (8E will involve 3D virtual reality though
)As much as I love 3E, I'm the first to admit that it has well and fully run its course economically. My negative attitude toward 4E has nothing to do with 3E neogrognardism. I was pumped about a new edition and ready to move on. It was the details of 4E itself that turned me off.
The reason I say that is to point out that as a HUGE 3E fan, I was really ready to move on when 4E was announced. 4E was announced in August 2007. That is only seven years after 3E was released.
And 3E had 3.5 helping it along. There is no question that 3.5 was a kick in the teeth to the 3PPs. But WotC was able to push a reset button and recycle a ton of product titles. It extended the economic viability of 3E for WotC themselves.
So we have around seven years of life. Some time before that WotC had decided it was time to start over, and another year after that before 4E was ready to hit shelves. So the life is in the 6 to 8 year range. Call it 8, because that is how long it takes to birth the replacement.
WotC has promised that 4.5 won't happen. Now, they could certainly see the hand writing on the wall and change their mind. And that would undermine my thinking. But for now I will assume they keep that promise. That takes the reset button out.
Also, one of the big points that 4E fans praise about it is its appeal to a wider fan base. I accept that. I just believe that is a short term plan. Since D&D first saw light, there have been gamers and non-gamers. Shades of grey certainly. But we all know that the distinctions exist. Being a non-gamer does not mean you won't play D&D. But you are not going to be somebody who buys a lot of product. 4E has tapped into a lot more of these people than any prior edition. And 4E has lost some hard core gamers as a trade off. But, probably a very solid net plus in terms of total headcount. The problem is, the non-gamers are going to move on. They are not going to wake up one morning and decide they need to flee this geek thing they find themselves enjoying. They will just find that other things will come along. It much more a fad than a hobby.
Of course there are always new gamers coming along all the time. And the current version of D&D is very likely to be the first stop for these people as well. These will be true "new gamers" that start with 4E. Many of them will be 4E gamers. But many of them will move on to something that is more gamer targeted rather than staying with the casual based 4E.
So you have 6 to 8 years, minus reset button, minus fad support factor.
To brush on edition war, I also believe that even a lot of gamer fans will find that the homogenization and simplification will result in faster burn out. That doesn't mean you are not loving it now. But ask around. A lot of people who loved 3E are done. It happens. It will happen again. I just strongly believe it will happen (is happening) faster.
The 6 to 8 year window is a very optimistic target.
But they are not going to leave D&D. Everything is for sale. And they could dump it if the right offer came along. And the right offer may be less in the near future than it is now. But D&D isn't going away.
But right now the wheel is spinning faster.
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I'm A Banana
Potassium-Rich
In this (very) hypothetical scenario, here's some of the dramatic ideas for a turn around.
1) Of course you continue to make 4e for now. However, as you're approaching the end of the edition, and the OGL/GSL problem was a nail in your coffin, you open it up with the OGL. You still produce a few years' worth of books, but you are gearing up for 5e.
2) 5e starts off and continues to be under the OGL. It is made as the "Last Edition," that is, there will be no 6e. To handle the rules updates and the like, the Internet is embraced as a compliment to the books: the web is for reference and recent knowledge, and the Wizards' website contains a a compendium of the mechanics information in all their books (perhaps still maintained via subscription fees, but entirely Open -- that is, it's OK to use this info in another contexts).
3) Table-top remains important, but it drops to a secondary importance. Primarily, you reinvent yourself as a videogame company, building on the VTT technology you developed under 4e. This probably means your rules still focus on grid-based combat, but at least, because they're Open, people can take them and modify them for easier use around the table (if they want). You're not worried about minis or dungeon tiles, instead releasing online modules and hosting "celebrity gaming tables" with the designers, and developing single-player and multi-player dungeons that you can release for an additional fee through an online streaming program. The VTT becomes the place that most people go to play D&D. The tabletop is still there, and still gets books, but at a slower pace, and they're mostly arty/fluffy books. The Third Party publishers should pick up the slack here, because they don't have the true capacity to reinvent themselves as a computer game company, and you do.
4) With this scenario, you have a 5e that maybe every 4-5 years gets "revised" PHB's, and maybe 6-9 big hardcover splatbook releases per year. You pull in most of your income from online tools -- the rules database you maintain and the main source for the game, the Virtual Table Top. You leave a place for the third parties to go, because your design is *intentionally* revolving around new things to do with the VTT, which means you're more ditigal than paper (though you still maintain a paper arm). Perhaps your paper arm goes susbcription-based, like your virtual arm.
You (a) get off the edition treadmill, (b) keep the game open for those who want to do other stuff with it, (c) build yourself a core fanbase who will buy your books AND use your online tools, and (d) do your best to reunite the editions under the aegis of the Virtual Table Top, which is edition-neutral but connected to 5e's dataset (but customizable with your own). If everyone who played 1e to 5e is using the VTT, and you're getting $20/month from them, the books become something that you keep around for the people who still can game in person, but they're not a core part of your strategy. They're and IMPORTANT part, but they're not the big part.
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