[Forked Thread: The 3.5 renaissance!] Three Years in the future - What will WotC do?

Given the time and money they were willing to sink into first Gleemax and then the DDI, I think the success of the DDI (whatever form it ultimately takes versus the original promises) will really set the course for 4e as a whole. If it meets some internal expectation, whatever that might be, 4e will probably see a longer life. If the DDI crashes and burns a year or two from now, 4e might find itself in a difficult place if Hasbro is looking for cost cutting.


I think this is true, although it is worth noting that, if it happens at all, I don't think DDI will crash and burn, per say. At least it won't from an external perspective. I don't think that's likely at all since everyone seems happy with it. What is more plausible, I think, is that DDI may fail to meet some arbitrary profitability measure within Wizards/Hasbro. Not that it would be loosing money, just that it's not making enough to keep someone happy.

There are several factors external to Wizards that might make this more or less likely, many related to server and infrastructure costs and maintenance. A jump in electricity or bandwidth costs per kilowatt/hour or gigabyte, for instance, might push it over this imaginary line from profitable to not profitable enough.
 
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I was under the impression that 2 was their market plan, regardless of anyone's predictions on how things turn out.

Honestly though, for a good idea of how D&D can be marketed, look at Magic the Gathering. They are applying similar ideas to both products and they are both working. Therefore, I would suspect a continued product cycle of introducing new materials on a regular schedule, often outdating the old stuff with better stuff thus causing new material to be necessary purchases in order to keep up - all until it becomes unsustainable and/or they hire new, fresh people, at which point they'll start over again. I mean, why not?
 

It looks to me like 4e is going to ultimately fail, and I think Hasbro's going to just drop DND. Hopefully they sell it, but they might just let the name collect dust.




I was under the impression that 2 was their market plan, regardless of anyone's predictions on how things turn out.

Honestly though, for a good idea of how D&D can be marketed, look at Magic the Gathering. They are applying similar ideas to both products and they are both working. Therefore, I would suspect a continued product cycle of introducing new materials on a regular schedule, often outdating the old stuff with better stuff thus causing new material to be necessary purchases in order to keep up - all until it becomes unsustainable and/or they hire new, fresh people, at which point they'll start over again. I mean, why not?

That's exactly what they did with 3e. The material released towards the end of 3e was just more powerful than what was released initially. If you didn't buy the newest product, you were always behind in the power curve. As collateral damage, your beloved old characters were transformed into wimps next to the shiny new character accross the table. Say what you will about TSR, they didn't pull that crap in 2e. Maybe 1e (I'm looking at you Cavalier), but a character made with the newest 2e product was no more powerful than a character made with the original rules. Assuming the DM allowed you to take a kit when kits were introduced.
 

It looks to me like 4e is going to ultimately fail, and I think Hasbro's going to just drop DND. Hopefully they sell it, but they might just let the name collect dust.
Well, it looks to me like 4e is a success, but a little bit less than WotC hoped.

Say what you will about TSR, they didn't pull that crap in 2e.

That's rose colored glasses. Complete book of elves, player's option, there was massive power creep in 4e
 

I think whomever wrote this had very little knowledge of HASBRO's history regarding unprofitable product lines and has not taken into account any number of corner-case issues that the current economy might bring up.

1- HASBRO's response to an unprofitable product line is never to sell, immediately re-release, or continue at marginal costs. Instead, the HASBRO play-book is to take the product off the market entirely, until the point that either the market research tells them that the audience is primed for a new product, or an internal project lead shows enough promise and passion that could entail a paradigm shift. If D&D 4E is taken off the market, we are looking at up to a decade or more of no products under that brand.

2- People in the thread seem to be using a term close to "Profitable but not Profitable Enough", or lagging-sales. I can tell you that the line at which a product line is considering lagging is influenced by the economic climate: the ability of a business to invest gains, or costs, into a seperate project that would be more profitable is the question. If the economic climate is such that a 2% profit is not only competitive but preferrable to investing at high margin in a project with a risky outlook, than what we think of as an "unsuccessful" 4E product line is probably going to continue, simply because Hasbro won't risk investing into something else.
 

1) Continue as is and eek every penny we can get out of 4e and gradually plan for a 5e in 2015-18.

This one is just silly. If its 2010 and PHBIII is going nowhere, at best they'll start active work for 4.5. If asked this last year, I would have said 2009 instead, but the poor economy can be an explaination. But if they have bad sales all around for 2 straight years on a product this large, its time to prepare to restart the product. They're not going to wait for 2011 to make that decision. And they're definitely not going to wait as long as 7 years afterwards to get that product out the door. They'll have it out in 1-2 years from the date they make the decision.

Just a business prospective, not saying that 4E/Wizards is bad or anything.

2) As above, but speed up the process and focus on creating 5e as the grand consolidator, the Best Edition Ever that includes the greatest elements of previous editions, coming in 2013 or 2014.

Na. They'll do a revision. Something that makes the Wizard a better class. Tweek thing A and adjust thing B. Revisions take much less development time than new editions.

3) Drop table-top RPGs altogether and embrace virtual technologies, selling D&D to someone who doesn't mind it not being as profitable as it once was and let them deal with it.

Wouldn't be surprised if they drop TTRPG. Lease it off to someone else maybe.

4) Another option?

Release a new product line. The D&D name has major potential. Releasing a board game version of it (no, I am not saying that 4E is a board game) that builds on the basic starter set idea but is an actual board game and doesn't require a DM I could see them doing.
 

If you didn't buy the newest product, you were always behind in the power curve. As collateral damage, your beloved old characters were transformed into wimps next to the shiny new character accross the table.

That's only if your DM allowed things in blindly or will-nilly.
 

My wish would be for WOTC to either sell or license DND to Green Ronin. Then, Green Ronin with Steve Kenson as lead revises 3e beginning with incorporating elements from UA, Advanced Bestiary, Book of the Righteous, and the Master Class series while ignoring the existance of Races of [X], ToB, ToM, Moi, BoED, Psi HBs, MM3-5, Savage Species and most of both the PHB2 and Complete Handbooks.

of course this is just a wish
 
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