trancejeremy said:
Sony is taking more of a long view - they aim for a console lifespan of about 8-10 years. Since they were the "winner" of the last generation, any new console would be competing with themselves. And indeed, the PS2 has continued to sell extremely well even after the launches of all 3 consoles. It's only just now that the Wii has gone ahead of the PS2 in monthly sales, and the 360 doesn't even do that.
While I don't disagree that may be part of their strategy, I don't think it's a strategy that works.
For one, they're competing against themselves - if the PS2 is selling so well, that's (theoretically) cutting into the PS3 market. With the PS3, they're cutting into the well-selling PS2 market. In essence, for all the casual gamers, they're dividing that market and hurting both, which is generally seen as a bad thing to do to yourself. Through supporting the PS2, they're encouraging people not to buy the PS3. Sure, there's a side-effect of encouraging a few people not to buy
any current-gen console - but I think those people are a rarity.
That's not the big problem though. The big problem is that the lifespan of the PS2 and PS3 might be 8-10 years, or more - but that's not the cycle that console development has. Irregardless of what Sony plans, Nintendo and Microsoft will push the next-gen on them in five years, or sooner. Sony will have no choice but to match that cycle, and the reason for
that is because of the hardcore gamers, who want to have the latest and greatest. So, focusing on that 2-4+ years for the PS3 after they're forced to put out the PS4 doesn't really help them in the long run. While it's certainly possible that the PS3 may repeat the PS2's late-game success, I don't feel that's likely to happen.
So, as I said, I do agree with you that this is part of their strategy, and I do agree with several other points you made. However, I don't think that calling this a long-term strategy makes it become a winning strategy. Contrast that with the Blu-ray player, which definitely has potential to be a winning strategy. The lifespan strategy has little to almost no potential, in my opinion.