Full Release when?

[Truename]

Problem is that the D&D business unit is currently bringing in negligible sales to Hasbro, and is investing very heavily in R&D.

I don't think you can say that with certainty. As others have said, there's a lot more to the D&D brand than game rulebooks, and DDI is the holy grail: a stable income stream.

Also, with Monte gone, I don't see them investing heavily in R&D. I see them redirecting their existing R&D to D&D.next, but if DDI is the income stream I think it is, it's not a cash investment. I suspect the real investment will come when they start buying art and marketing.

Still, I think Gencon 2013 is a reasonable bet. Mearls said 6-8 months for the playtest, which gives them 7-9 months for finalizing design & development, writing, art, layout, copyediting, indexing, printing, and shipping. Tight, but doable. And the 40th anniversary is a marketing opportunity not to be missed.

One thing we won't see when D&D.next is released? Competent digital offerings. 7-9 months is not enough time for WotC to produce software, unless they've magically gotten a lot more savvy than they used to be. I think we'll see a Compendium alternative at best, but nothing like 4e's character builder.

 

[mudbunny]

My prediction is that we will see an announcement of some sort at GenCon 2013, possibly mixed with a small release of some sort. Then, in 2014, timed to coincide with the 40th anniversary of D&D, they will open the floodgates.

 

[Jester David]

My prediction is that we will see an announcement of some sort at GenCon 2013, possibly mixed with a small release of some sort. Then, in 2014, timed to coincide with the 40th anniversary of D&D, they will open the floodgates.

2013 makes more sense from a free marketing perspective. They get all the media coverage for releasing a new edition one year and then coverage again for the 40th anniversary.
Plus that way they're guaranteed to have product in the stores in response to 40th anniversary articles, so people can get interested and go buy rather than having to wait days/weeks/months.

They can make 2014 all about the 40th anniversary and not 5e, having already hyped those books and sold them. They can do something new, something else.

 

[Stormonu]

One would wish the answer would be "when it's done."

Unfortunately, I don't think they have anything on tap that can really support the D&D line for a long gap. I don't think the novel line is strong enough (though I could be wrong) and the boardgame system seems to have rolled the last set off with the Legend of Drizzt. I have real concerns that Dungeon Command will be more than a flash in the pan.

My guess is they will go with a 3rd quarter 2013 release. Wasn't 3rd quarter when 3E and 4E were released?

No one will remember if it was late. Only if it was great.

Sadly, DDI's lateness to the game (promise at launch, feeble offering a year later) was a big factor in me never adopting it. While "it wasn't great" had some effect, by the time it got rolling I'd moved on. If they'd had it at launch, I would have signed up for it (and if the 3D Virtual Table had survived, I probably would still have it, just for that!).

If Wizards waits too long, they run the risk of people losing interest and sinking their money elsewhere. They'll have to balance that with rushing it to print and missing the target on quality. I think the trick is to have a steady playtest turnover so it at least appears that progress is being made.

 

[Yora]

13 months is still an awfully long amount of time. I can't really imagine that they plan to drag along a lame duck D&D for over one and a half year.
But then, it should be a very generous buffer if anything takes longer than expected, and they won't have to push back the release date. But I think summer 2013 will be the latest date where we see something hitting the stores.

 

[Deadly DM]

2013 makes more sense from a free marketing perspective. They get all the media coverage for releasing a new edition one year and then coverage again for the 40th anniversary.
Plus that way they're guaranteed to have product in the stores in response to 40th anniversary articles, so people can get interested and go buy rather than having to wait days/weeks/months.

They can make 2014 all about the 40th anniversary and not 5e, having already hyped those books and sold them. They can do something new, something else.

My initial guess was Gencon 2014 to coincide with the 40th anniversary, but this makes sense. I second this