FormerlyHemlock
Hero
Even assuming this kind of statistical averaging is correct, it's of little to no relevance in assessing whether a table likes or dislikes the -5/+10 mechanic. Because we dont experience the game from a statistical averaging perspective. The play experience is on a round to round basis, and players notice when some PCs are doing +10 potential maximum damage, and others arent. On a round to round basis, there is a massive difference between a PC doing d8+4 damage per hit, and 2d6+14 damage per hit. It "feels" like too much damage when the -5 is easily negated (as it typically is).
Speak for yourself. Some of us do intuitively experience the statistical averaging. In fact, I would argue that if you can't do this, you're not really equipped to play tactical D&D effectively. People are talking about average damage in this thread because that's what we do on a round-by-round basis when assessing whether to use GWM or not, or when assessing whether to burn a spell slot this round to disable the enemy or to just heal the extra damage afterward, or almost any other tactical decision. It's not an Internet-only thing, it's part of our play experience.