D&D seems to go through this cycle periodically. They drift too far from the core audience, start hemorrhaging fans, and then return to classic tropes mingled with a bit of new stuff to reel them back in. Most recently with the launch of 5e a number of years ago, but it seems about time for the cycle to repeat. Especially after the last couple of years worth of relatively (relatively, mind. I'm not suggesting that these were all flops) poorly received products and PR gaffes.
That doesn't seem to follow to me.
The site I was looking through divided things into categories, but I think this still speaks pretty strongly.
Adventures: The most recent stuff set somewhere new was Journey's through the Radiant Citadel, in July 2022, two years ago. Since then we've had Stormwrack set in FR (2022), Dragonlance (2022), Reprint of Tyranny of Dragons (2023), Keys from the Golden Vault, mostly set in FR (2023), Shattered Obelisk set in FR (2023) and coming up we have Vecna and the Infnite Staircase, both of which are classics.
Settings: If you don't count Radiant Citadel or Dragonlance since they were mainly adventure books, the most recent was Strixhavem in December 2021, since then we had both Spelljammer (2022) and Planescape (2023)
Supplements: We haven't had a non-traditional supplement book. Since 2021 we have had Fizban's (2021), Mordenkainen Presents (2022), Bigby (2023) and the book focused on the Deck of Many things (2024)
So... if your theory is correct, this pendulum swing started TWO YEARS ago. Which, incidentally, is also when they announced plans for the 50th anniversary, which might be a better explanation for why the sudden increase in classic material.
But, even IF, even IF the pendulum swing theory holds water... I'm not sure it accounts for the disparity of looking at the whole of the product list.
- There are 8 books in the supplement category, all focus on Classic DnD
- There are 10 adventure setting books. In order they are Sword Coast (FR), Ravnica, Acquisitions Inc (FR), Eberron, Wildemount (Critical Role), Theros, Ravenloft, Strixhaven, Spelljammer, Planescape. You could throw Radiant Citadel inbetween Strixhaven and Spelljammer and Dragonlance between Spelljammer and PLacescape if you wanted.
The same pattern kind of extends to the adventures. There were 27 adventure books put out. Only four or five of them are not classic DnD. In fact, 17 of them are set in the Forgotten Realms.
In total, out of 48 books released in the last 10 years, I'd argue that only about Eight books were not classical DnD books. Ravnica, Theros, Strixhaven, Radiant Citadel, Stranger Things adventure, Rick & Morty Adventure, and the two Critical Role books which are VERY VERY close to classical DnD.
It seems much more like the new material was sort of slotted in where they could get it, while the majority of their releases whent with classic tie-ins to classical DnD. So this idea that they've bled fans by putting out too much that is not classical DnD seems to hold no water. It is barely one-fifth of their releases over 10 years.