Sanguinemetaldawn said:
Wizards has been acting funny. Re-acquiring licenses/settings, even ones that they have no intention of supporting or using. And the rumours circulating might be just a bunch of babbling...or they may mean something, but not what everyone thinks. Its the "own it, but not use it" aspect that really sticks out to me.
But this has been true for several D&D settings. Dark Sun, Mystara, Red Steel, and most noticeably Planescape have essentially been gathering dust since 3e. Also, having no plans for new products in those lines is not the same as having no ANNOUNCED plans for new products in those lines.
Let's assume there really is a constant churning of books just to keep cash coming in. Eventually, people would get sick of it or you'd run out of ideas. That would be a darn good time to announce the triumphant return of Dark Sun or Planescape -- updated for 3.5 of course. And TSR should have easily taught us the perils of having too many irons in the fire at once.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
Now, Infogrames/Atari deal for D&D was part of the same package, along with everything else. But there is only one license out of all 17 brands in this deal that has its own specific deal: D&D.
Here are the terms for D&D: Infogrames recieves rights to D&D for "all interactive formats" for another 10 years
Notice the two major differences:
1) the deal for D&D rights is for TEN years, not seven, like everything else.
2) the deal is for "all interactive formats", not for specifically limited formats, like all the others.
Maybe they just wanted the dealines to all line up for expiration? Working in insurance, we've had clients renew lines early or push off renewals just to get everything to all renew on the same date.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
You know what that looks like to me?
It looks like Hasbro has squeezed everything they can out of D&D, and its time to get rid of it.
Right when D&D Online is about to come out? An MMORPG with exclusive IP rights, tons of crossover marketing, and about two generations worth of fairly dedicated fans to market to. You (the general you, not Sanguinemetaldawn) would have to be a blue ribbon idiot to drop that.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
It makes sense. This simplifies any future acquisition.
And it simplifies tracking copyrights. And it simplifies valuation of assets for accounting purposes. And it simplifies negotiations for future licenses. It simplifies all kinds of stuff that doesn't have to do with putting it up for sale.
It also makes investors happy. Investors like to know that you've got stable, long-term plans for properties that made you so much money in the first place.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
Do you honestly think someone is going to shell out 8 figures for the privilege of continuing a line that is deemed not worth keeping by Hasbro, just to make you happy?
No, but that's largely because I don't think someone will pay that much for an unprofitable product.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
The fact that Hasbro/Wizards isn't planning 4E D&D doesn't mean that 4E D&D won't happen. It just means Wizards isn't planning on it right now. Which could be because Hasbro thinks D&D is crap, and by extension 4E D&D is crap, and not worth producing.
All of which is based on the assumption that the line isn't performing well. There have been public statements, by Charles Ryan IIRC, that this isn't true.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
Scenario 1:
D&D is permitted support and a team as long as it makes a profit. When it no longer makes a profit, everyone is laid off, and D&D becomes a moribund property, consisting of a library of products and a brand name. I suspect this will be soon, because endless-release churn drives more and more people away.
All of which is still based on the assumption that the line isn't performing well.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
Scenario 2:
Someone comes in and buys D&D. Guess what they will do first? Maybe what Wizards did right after they bought TSR?
It's a business. Everything is for sale. And honestly, can you really look at yourself in the mirror and say 2e was a better product than 3e?
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
But I remember something else, too. I remember about seven years ago on usenet, people wondering why they weren't getting their Dungeon and Dragon subscriptions. I remember talk from Tracy Hickman that he was no longer being paid royalties. Of the events of the era, the writer's royalties is what really struck me. Things like that get you lawsuits, and potentially prison. That doesn't happen unless something is DEEPLY wrong.
Yeah, TSR was going bankrupt. Show me where Hasbro's financials are anywhere close to that. The fact that D&D is still around, but TSR isn't, demonstrates the product wasn't the problem.
Sanguinemetaldawn said:
If D&D dies again, it won't be like last time. This isn't a single business company, where the whole thing comes crashing down. Hasbro will simply liquidate an unprofitable division and move on, without blinking an eye.
But that also assumes the liquidation will mean the sale of the D&D property. Hasbro is a toy and game company. There is a ton of room for D&D across the spectrum of their products. It would be insane to just throw that name away. Books, boardgames, video games, cartoons, comic books, minis, CCGs, blah, blah, ad infinitum.
If it was really doing that poorly, the smoothest move would be to:
a) Spin Wizards back off to their own company
b) License the CCG and RPG rights to them
c) Let them fend for themselves while the rest of Hasbro makes whatever else they want
Why? Well:
a) WotC as it's own entity protects Hasbro's financial statements
b) Licensing means Hasbro still has ultimate control of the IP, as opposed to selling
c) If the rpg dies, Hasbro was right to be rid of it. Meanwhile, they still make profitable stuff.
Cross-marketing is a net bonus for the brand and it would be stupid for them not to port good rules between them.
