Hello, I am lawyer with a PSA: almost everyone is wrong about the OGL and SRD. Clearing up confusion.

[ThorinTeague]

I was actually about to cancel my Adobe sub last year because I only really use InDesign, and really don't do any layout work for anyone anymore, so it wasn't really anything more than a monthly expense to write off against profit when I do my taxes. Being able to use Photoshop was nice, but not really worth the full subscription fee. Then when I went to cancel they gave me the option of a discount and I caved...

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affinity.serif.com

Might be worth looking at.

If you're like me, you're pretty skeptical of people coming at you with Adobe alternatives. I don't know how many times I've been told a product is a perfect photoshop replacement or clone by people who have only a superficial understanding of photoshop. I have never seen anything that replaces adobe creative software exactly, but this suite looks promising. You didn't say anything about video or animation, but I have suggestions for that too if you want it.

 

[ThorinTeague]

so the big thing is... how big of an exodus will we see from D&D?

Yeah the bottom line of $$$ is the real rub, which we won't know for a long time. I think this will rival the New Coke disaster of 1985 if not surpass it. (about $85 million, adjusted for 2023 dollars, in losses).
If anyone doesn't know, New Coke was rolled out in 1985 while removing original coke from the market, and its failure is the stuff of advertising legend. Like the entire polar opposite of Got Milk. It's considered the worst PR disaster in history and its cautionary tale went into the history books as the poster child of what happens when you fxck up on your PR campaign.

I don't doubt that we're watching history being made right here--this is unquestionably [in my mind] one for the books. I can't wait to see if WoTC surpasses that number and takes New Coke's place as the industry's poster child for PR disasters (there's a long long way to go before any of that will be determined).

 

[S'mon]

Yeah the bottom line of $$$ is the real rub, which we won't know for a long time. I think this will rival the New Coke disaster of 1985 if not surpass it. (about $85 million, adjusted for 2023 dollars, in losses).
If anyone doesn't know, New Coke was rolled out in 1985 while removing original coke from the market, and its failure is the stuff of advertising legend. Like the entire polar opposite of Got Milk. It's considered the worst PR disaster in history and its cautionary tale went into the history books as the poster child of what happens when you fxck up on your PR campaign.

I don't doubt that we're watching history being made right here--this is unquestionably [in my mind] one for the books. I can't wait to see if WoTC surpasses that number and takes New Coke's place as the industry's poster child for PR disasters (there's a long long way to go before any of that will be determined).

My guess would be that WoTC's actions have already cost them more than $85 million in future revenue, by tainting their brand and alienating their customers. Especially because they don't seem to realise that this will have long term impact.

I have seen it suggested elsewhere that WoTC are actively trying to alienate their current customer base (along with eliminating the 3PPs) Games Workshop style, to get rid of them, bring in a new fresh customer base, and create a true walled garden akin to WH40K, completely separate from the RPG community - "the D&D hobby" instead of "the RPG hobby". The D&D VTT would then be akin to GW's game stores as a controlled place to play (I mistyped that as 'pay'). If that worked it would negate the financial impact of the current damage. I don't think it will work though.

Edit: I've been pointed to this thread on brand damage

 

[Hussar]

Honestly I think people vastly overestimate the impact of the ogl. But then again I’m hardly batting a thousand in accuracy lately so what do I know?

 

[jgbrowning]

Honestly I think people vastly overestimate the impact of the ogl. But then again I’m hardly batting a thousand in accuracy lately so what do I know?

I'd tend to think the reverse. I don't think most people understand that so many products out there exist only because of the safe harbor that the OGL was providing, and this is not only for WotC OGC (which is the obvious one) but for many other open systems that use the OGL as well.

More importantly, IMO, is the paradigmn shift that has occurred among ttrpgs because of the OGL in which the very idea of 'lets share and make cool stuff by setting some easy-to-understand ground rules!" has taken full root. Prior to the OGL, the idea was absent in the industry, IMO - all "sharing" was combative instead of cooperative.

I think it's the most important single thing to have happened to ttrpgs since their creation, and I think it more likely that people underestimate it than over.

joe b.

 

[Hussar]

I'd tend to think the reverse. I don't think most people understand that so many products out there exist only because of the safe harbor that the OGL was providing, and this is not only for WotC OGC (which is the obvious one) but for many other open systems that use the OGL as well.

More importantly, IMO, is the paradigmn shift that has occurred among ttrpgs because of the OGL in which the very idea of 'lets share and make cool stuff by setting some easy-to-understand ground rules!" has taken full root. Prior to the OGL, the idea was absent in the industry, IMO - all "sharing" was combative instead of cooperative.

I think it's the most important single thing to have happened to ttrpgs since their creation, and I think it more likely that people underestimate it than over.

joe b.

You are absolutely right. I wasn’t clear.

I’m not sure that people aren’t overestimating the impact of the ogl on wotc’s bottom line.

The impact to the hobby is massive.

 

[jgbrowning]

You are absolutely right. I wasn’t clear.

I’m not sure that people aren’t overestimating the impact of the ogl on wotc’s bottom line.

The impact to the hobby is massive.

Yeah, the impact on WotC's bottom line is much harder to estimate.

joe b.

 

[Hussar]

Yeah, the impact on WotC's bottom line is much harder to estimate.

joe b.

That’s kinda the fear in the back of my head. Everyone seems to think that the ogl community is holding four aces. But what if they’re wrong?

What if the ogl community doesn’t actually have as much impact on WotC’s bottom line as people seem to think? The ogl 3pp go off with ORC and abandon DnD.

And WotC waves goodbye as they leave. They get everything they wanted - total control over DnD going forward. The 3pp fade even further into obscurity as WotC just builds a platform for DnD that doesn’t include any 3pp.

That’s my fear.

 

[jgbrowning]

That’s kinda the fear in the back of my head. Everyone seems to think that the ogl community is holding four aces. But what if they’re wrong?

What if the ogl community doesn’t actually have as much impact on WotC’s bottom line as people seem to think? The ogl 3pp go off with ORC and abandon DnD.

And WotC waves goodbye as they leave. They get everything they wanted - total control over DnD going forward. The 3pp fade even further into obscurity as WotC just builds a platform for DnD that doesn’t include any 3pp.

That’s my fear.

I think we have to look at it this way: the impact to the bottom line is considered important enough by WotC to do what they're doing regarding trying to kill the OGL. It may not be only impact right now, it could be about impact in the future (which I suspect), but regardless they consider it enough to try and stop it all from happening.

In addition, they didn't predict the customer response regarding cancellations at D&DBeyond, which indicates that the impact to their bottom line is far greater than even what they had thought, which had already been enough to initiate this whole debacle to begin with.

So while I think it is hard to estimate, I think that WotC themselves have estimated it as significant: if they hadn't, I'm not sure what they are seeing that is creating the need to take the actions they're taking.

(tl:dr: WotC is viewing it as a threat, so it's reasonable for us to do the same, IMO)

joe b.

 

[jgbrowning]

I think we have to look at it this way: the impact to the bottom line is considered important enough by WotC to do what they're doing regarding trying to kill the OGL. It may not be only impact right now, it could be about impact in the future (which I suspect), but regardless they consider it enough to try and stop it all from happening.

In addition, they didn't predict the customer response regarding cancellations at D&DBeyond, which indicates that the impact to their bottom line is far greater than even what they had thought, which had already been enough to initiate this whole debacle to begin with.

So while I think it is hard to estimate, I think that WotC themselves have estimated it as significant: if they hadn't, I'm not sure what they are seeing that is creating the need to take the actions they're taking.

(tl:dr: WotC is viewing it as a threat, so it's reasonable for us to do the same, IMO)

joe b.

And to quote myself to be scary, the fact that the impact to their bottom line is greater than even what they estimated more than likely means that it will harden their resolve to kill the OGL. The more damage they realize from their actions, the more likely they are to interpret their actions as justified. It is a negative feedback cycle.

I'm not sure how to break it. (Edit: The way to break it is to get them to understand that the OGL is actually beneficial to them, but I'm not sure how to convince them of that seeing as they appear to believe that every single $ made in the industry using WotC OGC is a $ that is being taken from them.)

joe "hate to think this way but I think it's the right way to think about it" b.