Hit Probability is a Slippery Slope

[TK Lafours]

Is there something I'm missing, or are PC's doomed to meet ever more difficult foes, as they level (which might not be a bad thing...)?

I haven't played past heroic yet, but hopefully a player's access to a large variety of powers helps to compensate. Almost every slot could have a magic item that gives you a power by the time you get to epic right?

 

[amnuxoll]

Unless I'm missing something, your hit ratio will actually drop throughout the game.

I was afraid this might be true as well. It turns out that if you keep up with ability increases and weapon/implement enhancements that it comes out exactly even...almost as if it were designed that way. Hrm.

I'm embarassed to admit I have the spreadsheet that shows this.

:AMN:

 

[brendan candries]

People have been talking confidently about how Cha-based paladins are
superior to Str-based. This example illustrates why they really are
about equally good: opportunity attacks. A high level, Cha-based
paladin is unlikely to hit with OAs. This not only reduces their
overall damage output but, more importantly, it removes their ability
to play the role of Defender. A canny DM will simple take the OA
knowing that it's likely to miss. And the baddies will walk right up
to the squishy bits of your party. Sure, they _may_ get a -2 to the
attack and some damage due to the Divine Challenge, but that's not a
bad price to pay for cutting down your party's controller in round 2.

:AMN:

Heavy Blade Opportunity

 

[Victim]

Heavy Blade Opportunity

Which requires STR and DEX.

 

[ryryguy]

Is there something I'm missing, or are PC's doomed to meet ever more difficult foes, as they level (which might not be a bad thing...)?

Others have noted this "advancement gap" as well.

I think the answer is that yes. there are some things you're missing. A higher level PC is going to have more feat and power bonuses to his attacks and defenses. These aren't figured into those calculations of "base" attacks and defenses. Some of the feat and power bonuses are also going to be situational/untyped, and thus will actually stack with everything else in the situations where they do come into play.

Sure, your powers improve too, but those of the monsters do as well, and compensating for a permanent +4 gap is not that easy.

This isn't strictly true, or at least, although monsters' powers do improve, they don't tend to improve in ways that directly improve their attack and defense scores. I'm sure there are exceptions, but for the most part, what you see is what you get when it comes to monster AC and + to hit.

PCs will have access to more "wildcard" abilities too, like rerolls.

Overall, while there are too many variables to draw a hard and fast conclusion, I think there are enough other ways for the higher level PC's to improve their scores to make up that +4 gap in most situations. At least, I think that is the design intention behind the gap.

 

[eamon]

I haven't played past heroic yet, but hopefully a player's access to a large variety of powers helps to compensate. Almost every slot could have a magic item that gives you a power by the time you get to epic right?

Maybe. However, monsters also get better powers (and hit points etc etc). Almost no powers grant permanent bonuses, and it's difficult to compete with those. If you're surprised, that fancy power which boosts your defenses isn't nearly as useful as a permanent improvement...

 

[brendan candries]

Which requires STR and DEX.

Which doesn't make you sacrifice CHA.

 

[Malicea]

It really isn't particularly hard to grasp. You need to keep your attack stat and enhancement bonus up to par at every opportunity. The stat boost system IS set up to allow the advancement of two attack stats if you choose, so classes with two attack stats are only at a minor disadvantage. It's not at all a slippery slope, as it doesn't get harder to catch up once you fall behind. You stay behind at exactly the same amount if you start to put points into the other attack stat again. It's more of a Red Queen situation - you have to run as fast as you can, just to stay where you are.

 

[ryryguy]

Maybe. However, monsters also get better powers (and hit points etc etc). Almost no powers grant permanent bonuses, and it's difficult to compete with those. If you're surprised, that fancy power which boosts your defenses isn't nearly as useful as a permanent improvement...

Again, monsters' powers tend not to directly boost their attacks and defenses... doesn't the explanation of the monster stat table in the DMG say that these values are supposed to incorporate feats, equipment, etc.? We are considering the PC's equipment in our base comparison here, but not so much "feats" and "etc.".

All that being said, it's quite possible that the gap could make things a bit swingier for higher level PCs, as whether or not they bring their fancy power and feat bonuses to bear makes a larger difference. If so, I'm not sure that's necessarily a bug, as it could make things more interesting tactically. As long as it doesn't make things too swingy - and if the gap is at worse a +4 in the monsters' favor, it seems like the degree of swinginess is limited.

Once again the PC's are going to have more "wildcard" powers (rerolls, interrupts, more uses of magic items per day, magic item always-on properties...). It gets increasingly difficult to make direct comparisons, but all in all I strongly suspect the PC's would become too dominant if there wasn't a bit of a gap in the base number progression.

PS - My 4e play experience is very limited so far and includes no high level play at all... so my comments are admittedly speculative and theoretical. I think we'll really have to get some time at the table at the higher levels to know for sure. Hopefully they did more high level playtesting than was apparently done for 3e.

 

[Regicide]

It works the other way too. If the party is a level or two higher than the module is intended for they'll be hitting more often and being hit less often and it will be a drastically different game.

Since, in the eyes of WotC, DMs aren't capable of looking up a chart by comparing monster level to PC level, there is no XP penalty for fighting lower level monsters than what you "should" be, and no real incentive to fight monsters of levels beyond what you should. "Smart" characters would simply kill large numbers of weaker monsters instead of fight normal level monsters. The swing in DPS both in and out is dramatic.