Hit Probability is a Slippery Slope

[Anthony Jackson]

It works the other way too. If the party is a level or two higher than the module is intended for they'll be hitting more often and being hit less often and it will be a drastically different game.

Since, in the eyes of WotC, DMs aren't capable of looking up a chart by comparing monster level to PC level, there is no XP penalty for fighting lower level monsters than what you "should" be, and no real incentive to fight monsters of levels beyond what you should. "Smart" characters would simply kill large numbers of weaker monsters instead of fight normal level monsters. The swing in DPS both in and out is dramatic.

This isn't actually a function of monster level, it's a function of encounter xp budget. Any encounter that's only worth 2/3 of normal XP budget will be significantly under 2/3 as difficult; any encounter that's worth 150% of normal XP budget will be over 150% as hard. If you let PCs always pick 'easy' fights, they will get experience quite quickly relative to the effort.

 

[TK Lafours]

Maybe. However, monsters also get better powers (and hit points etc etc). Almost no powers grant permanent bonuses, and it's difficult to compete with those. If you're surprised, that fancy power which boosts your defenses isn't nearly as useful as a permanent improvement...

Higher level monsters do get better powers, no question. My point was that a higher level PC has many more powers. Potentially a great many more powers. Even though each only grants a temporary bonus, the sheer number of them may, to some degree, compensate for the greater difficulty to hit.

 

[AllisterH]

Um, Blade Cascade anyone?

Blade Cascade wouldn't have been a problem if there WASN'T ways to increase your to-hit value.

Example: A 1st level ranger has no way to increase its hit chance by itself. Contrast that with a ranger with Armour Splinter.

As for earlier editions, that's not exactly true in 3E. Sure, your PRIMARY attack could hit, but you wanted that secondary et al attacks to hit as well and thus, you wanted a high to-hit value just as much.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Higher level characters have more encounter and daily powers, and thus both more chances to hit the bad guys with something encounter-changing, and more ways to help eachother land those encounter-changing powers. That should help compensate for thier basic chance to hit possibly falling behind a bit.

Some attack-roll buffs, some of them subject to casual use, like the at-wills Righteous Brand and Furious Smash, give bonuses based on an ability that's likely to go up with level, too, so could be used to compensate for it being harder to hit. If a high-level warlord furious smashes for a few rounds until he hits, then gives you a +6 (possibly more) to hit and damage, you can throw down some major power with an excellent chance of it hitting. If it's a cleric with Righteous Brand, the bonus to hit is probably +8. For that matter, a human spending an action point in the presence of a high-level Tactical Warlord could be getting a bonus of +5 or 6 (or more) that stacks with either of the above.

That may be 'ephemeral' but it doesn't make the near-certainty of catching a daily attack power any less painful for the target.

 

[Paul Strack]

"Smart" characters would simply kill large numbers of weaker monsters instead of fight normal level monsters. The swing in DPS both in and out is dramatic.

This assumes the PCs get to pick their fights. If so, why not just have a single kobold minion walk up every 5 minutes and earn 2400 XP per day?

The DM picks the players opponents and the XP budget for encounter creation does a reasonably good job at defining balanced fights.

 

[KarinsDad]

What are the odds of your 1st level fighter hitting a bad guy
(vs. AC)? Well if you consider that most monsters will be about 2-3
levels higher and then you consult the DMG at the bottom of p.184 you
can get this answer: about 50%.

Now as the fighter gains levels he is sure to increase his Strength
ability at every opportunity. He purchases magical weapons with the
largest enhancement bonus he has access to. Basically, any reasonable
opportunity to increase your normal attack bonus he does it. You play
this PC all the way to 30th level.

What are the odds of your 10th level fighter hitting a bad guy?
Answer: About 50%.

How about 20th level? ... 50%

30th level? ... 50%

This isn't a huge surprise. It's what the WotC folks have been
telling us.

Except that even this is not quite true.

Monsters increase defense by approximately +1 per level.

PCs increase to hit by: +1/2 per level, +6 magic items max, +4 (or +5 demigod) ability scores.

So, PCs increase to hit by 30th level by ~+25. Monsters increase AC by ~+29 (+27 if starting at first level vs. level 3 monsters).

PCs have to make up the difference via powers and maneuvers such as Combat Advantage.

And it gets real nasty if the monsters figure out a way to take away the PCs main weapon (implement, whatever).

 

[chaotix42]

"Smart" characters would simply kill large numbers of weaker monsters instead of fight normal level monsters. The swing in DPS both in and out is dramatic.

Is this the elusive "videogamey" I keep reading about? Sounds quite a bit like "farming" to me.

 

[Crazy_Dragon]

um extra healing surges help a little, more health allows for more misses

 

[small pumpkin man]

It works the other way too. If the party is a level or two higher than the module is intended for they'll be hitting more often and being hit less often and it will be a drastically different game.

Since, in the eyes of WotC, DMs aren't capable of looking up a chart by comparing monster level to PC level, there is no XP penalty for fighting lower level monsters than what you "should" be, and no real incentive to fight monsters of levels beyond what you should. "Smart" characters would simply kill large numbers of weaker monsters instead of fight normal level monsters. The swing in DPS both in and out is dramatic.

Really? From what I've seen fighting large amounts of weaker monsters is a lot more dangerous than Fighting the same xp worth of higher level monsters, simply because even if attack bonus goes up quite quickly, damage goes up relatively slowly.

 

[ac_noj]

Non-martial characters have it even worse. They lack the weapon
proficiency bonus to their attacks so they have to work equally hard
to maintain a lower probability.

The AC of monsters is on average 2 to 3 higher than their other defenses, especially if you're attacking the right stat for the monster type (i.e. don't attack the Fort of Brutes). This evens out weapon profeciency very nicely.