Different levels of ability doing a thing based on investment of resources. Same, same.
To say the ridiculously open-ended list of NWPs is
Uh...except they just standardized the BAB. Everyone has the same basic attack bonus, 1/2 level.
As opposed to
Right. In 4E everyone got to use their relevant stat as a mod to attack and damage for their assumed attacks. They don't in 5E.
In many cases they do. You do not e.g. get to use Int on basic attacks as a swordmage without a feat. And there are more than a few powers. Meanwhile you get to use your spellcasting stat for spell attacks in 5e. Sorry, but this doesn't hold.
Interesting selective quotation. Note the first word in your quoted sentence. "Alternately"...as in optionally. As in that's not the default assumption. The bit you didn't quote is where is says you roll your hit dice every time you gain a level. And alternately, optionally, you can take the average. It's core in the same way that flanking, feats, and multiclassing are. They're presented in the core books, but they're optional rules.
OK. Now this is just flat out wrong. "Alternatively" in the PHB means that the player has the choice. Nowhere is it called out as an optional rule - it's simply a choice the player gets to make in the same way they can pick different races. Meanwhile Feats say "Using this optional rule" on p165 of the PHB and Flanking is under "Optional Rule: Flanking" on p251 of the DMG. Feats and flanking are both explicitly presented as optional rules and explicitly use the words "Optional Rule". Using flat hit points is presented as a player chosen alternative, not as an optional rule.
Ah, irony.
1st-level party. Assuming 18 +4 in relevant stats.
OK. So you are ignoring the standard array and normal stat spread in 5e; 16 would be normal. And mysteriously you're using a different example to mine where I presented some typical CR2 monsters and instead cherry-picking 1st level. Rather of course than doing it by the official formula in DMG p274 which claims that 71-85hp would be normal for a CR1 monster. (No, it makes no sense to me either but that's what the DMG says).
So a 1st-level party of four vs one CR1 creature (the assumed default of 5E), the fight ends once the group lands four average hits. If you use two CR1/2 creatures instead...the fight ends once the group lands...four average hits. If you use four CR1/4 creatures instead...the fight ends...wait for it...once the group lands...four average hits. Spooky. It's almost like there's math involved.
Indeed. And if you're going to cherry pick level 1 when characters are front loaded you get answers that are outliers.
Now let's take level
4 adventurers and assume feats are an optional rule and not in use. What's changed about their damage from your example? The cantrips are still doing exactly the same amount of damage. The fighter is doing a single point more damage - but that only brings them up to the mark you set as using the standard array they have only now hit Str 18. And the rogue is only doing 1d6 more points of damage (and has a Dex of 18).
So with almost unchanged damage output assuming they aren't blowing much in the way of limited use resources (because this is not intended to be a hard fight) the damage that could work on a CR1 creature doesn't go that far against a CR4 one. (I'm also not counting the martial classes getting multiple attacks at level 5 and above as multiple attacks as it's one action).
Spooky. It's almost as if there are extreme damage spikes at various levels rather than a smooth progression and you cherry picked an example that is an outlier. Level 4 is of course
also an outlier as it's the level before level 5 which comes with a massive damage spike.
As for there being math involved, it's a pity the DMG monster creation rules appear to have been created by an entirely different group to those that created the MM (the MM did a better job).
And note none of this involves expending resources. This is all at-wills/cantrips and basically infinite use weapon attacks.
Agreed. That said short rest resources are
much easier to recover in 4e
Now let's compare the above to the same from 4E.
1st-level party. Assuming 18 +4 in relevant stats.
Which is normal thanks to the point buy allowed going up to 18 rather than 15. I've seen a lot of 20s in 4e and no 18s in 5e at first level.
Fighter: heavy flail or maul for 2d6+4, averages 11 hp per. Cleric: lance of faith for 1d8+4, averages 8.5 per. Wizard: magic missile for 2d4+4, averages 9. Rogue: sneak attack on any 1d6 weapon for 3d6+4, averages 14.5. Adding that up...11+8.5+9+14.5=43. And that ignores all the riders along with the rogue using a more damaging weapon. So in four average hits the classic D&D party deals 43 damage. The actual range is 24-62 damage from four hits.
So you've no relevant feats there. Your magic missile is massively pre-errata and I've literally never seen a wizard take that. That said it does more damage than some of the things they do take - but most of those are multi-target. Oh, and you're using basic attacks for the fighter and rogue? Rather than e.g. Sly Flourish for the Rogue and Cleave or Reaping Strike for the fighter?
For comparison I'd expect an actual play PHB-only 4e rogue to take the Backstabber feat at first level, and be a charismatic rather than brawny rogue (the lower damage archetype) but have Cha 14 and Sly Flourish for an at will damage of 1d6+2d8+4+2 = 18.5 average. This isn't razor-optimisation, merely what I'd expect from a random walk-in player based on experience. But low level rogues are at the high end of the 4e damage curve even for strikers so it's a bit of a special case; it's not only 5e that front-loads.
I don't need to list various creatures from 4E because the devs were nice enough to give us the math.
The average is 8+Con+(levelx8). So assuming a 16 Con, a 1st-level standard monster averages 32 hp. (Weird. That's almost exactly what a CR1 5E monster has. Hmm.) So the average party of four can down one standard monster in 3-4 hits. But...in 4E the encounter design was balanced around 1 standard monster per 1 PC. So our four heroes would face off against four standard monsters (or their equivalents, i.e. 1 elite for 2 standard, 1 solo for 4 standard, 4 minions for 1 standard, and/or traps, skill challenges, etc). So if it will take four average hits to down one standard monster and the party is facing four standard monsters...it will take about 16 hits to end the fight. Roughly four times as long as a 5E fight. Give or take
OK. Using your own math. If it's 32 hit points per monster and 4 hits do 43 then on average you'll take a monster down in 3 hits if you're using the same death margins you were in 5e for your 1st level characters.
And note none of that involves even using encounter powers, the assumed resources you're meant to spend. On average they simply do double damage vs at-wills...2[W] instead of 1[W] or 2d10 instead of 1d10. So using encounter powers would halve the number of hits. So the four encounter hits would be 2 each, and the at-wills would be 1 each. So you're talking about 12 average hits including encounter powers.
There's a lot more to it than that - including that the wizard should be using AoE at wills like Scorching Burst or Freezing Burst (or even two target at will attacks like Arc Lightning), the amount of damage added by feats, and more (including that [2W] is not twice [1W] but good encounter powers do do twice baseline damage). And given that we start with three hits not four so 12 average hits to start with we're down to 8. Which is still longer than 5e - but nothing like four times as long.