How Long Before the Digital Dam Breaks?

The recent crash in pricing for digital comics provides a data point for the future of electronic versions of tabletop books, 3D-printed miniatures, and terrain. How long can retailers keep their price points for physical product before the dam breaks? The Line is 99 Cents Many businesses are being upended by the move to online sales, as products transform from physical to a digital format...

The recent crash in pricing for digital comics provides a data point for the future of electronic versions of tabletop books, 3D-printed miniatures, and terrain. How long can retailers keep their price points for physical product before the dam breaks?

The Line is 99 Cents

Many businesses are being upended by the move to online sales, as products transform from physical to a digital format. Chris Anderson at Wired explains why Web content continues to get cheaper and cheaper:
It's now clear that practically everything Web technology touches starts down the path to gratis, at least as far as we consumers are concerned. Storage now joins bandwidth (YouTube: free) and processing power (Google: free) in the race to the bottom. Basic economics tells us that in a competitive market, price falls to the marginal cost. There's never been a more competitive market than the Internet, and every day the marginal cost of digital information comes closer to nothing.
This is the challenge facing the comics industry today. Comics in digital format is not new, but as the market has matured some patterns are emerging. For one, the massive back catalog of comics are plentiful, such that anyone seeking to jump into comics no longer has to worry about the significant barrier to entry of hunting for a comic. One side effect of the availability of these digital comics -- and the desire to bring fans up to speed quickly on hot properties as they are launched in films and TV series -- was deep discounting. According to ICv2 columnist Rob Salkowitz, this has had the unintended effect of normalizing consumers' perceptions of what a comic should cost:
It’s also fulfilled the prophesy that programs like Humble Bundle, which led the way in dumping piles of digital issues on the market for ridiculous prices, would eventually erode the perception of value for non-current material, permanently lowering the ceiling for profit margins on publisher back catalog in exchange for the sugar-high of short term revenue.
Role-playing games have also been sold in Humble Bundles. Salkowitz points out that there are benefits to this kind of deep discounts:
It’s a huge plus for consumers to be able to catch up on storylines or track down old favorites in digital format without breaking the bank. It’s good for publishers, who can use promotional sales to generate attention for characters poised for a big moment on screen or in a featured upcoming series. It’s good for creators, who can expose new (and old) fans to their previous work without driving them to the back issue bins.
The concern is that consumers will not buy new products at full price. After all, today's comic book is tomorrow's deep-discounted back issue. Will fans stop buying?

Digital and Tabletop RPGs

PDFs of tabletop role-playing game rules and adventures share a lot of similarities with comics. They have a finite lifespan but are still accessible later, and as future editions of RPGs are released, the back catalog loses its appeal at brick-and-mortar outlets, often ending up deep discounted to clear shelf space. The digital space is where a back catalog can thrive.

It's also where a lot of innovation takes place, unrestrained by production and distribution barriers that would normally prohibit a creator from launching a product. OneBookShelf's (OBS) consolidation of digital gaming products (DriveThruRPG absorbed its rival, RPGNow, back in 2006 and now manages DM's Guild) draws a parallel with the dominance Amazon's Comixology in digital comics. So far, DriveThruRPG has resisted deep discounting on the scale of Comixology, perhaps because the price point is set by the creator, not by OBS.

OBS' management of its channels provides a path forward for companies like Wizards of the Coast, who shifted from removing all of its PDFs online in 2009 to partnering with OBS to create a DM's Guild in which creators can leverage WOTC's own content to create new products. This shift was likely influenced by the decline of bookstores, a major channel for RPG distributors.

By all accounts, the digital market for comics (and books in general) has stabilized. Reference books in particular lend themselves to digital distribution. Given that tabletop gaming books are often purchased for reference during play, they can be even more useful in electronic format when indexed and searchable. The same can't be said for 3D models however.

Digital and Miniatures

Miniatures have slowly fallen out of favor among companies like WOTC, who once offered pre-painted randomized miniatures, only to abandon the product after the Great Recession in 2008 made the price of production and shipping unfeasible. WizKids picked up the slack, acting as a consolidator for multiple companies' plastic miniature lines, WOTC included.

WOTC has paid careful attention to 3D products on sites like Shapeways, a platform WOTC's parent company Hasbro has an existing agreement with. With a few exceptions, most D&D models are free to download and print. Games Workshop, on the other hand, went after a creator on Thingiverse for creating a Warhammer-style figure back in 2012.

Cool Mini or Not (CMON) has adopted a Minimum Advertised Pricing Policy (MAPP) for advertising of its games:
CMON believes that by unilaterally imposing restrictions on the minimum prices advertised by our distribution and retail partners, we can reduce counterfeiting and enhance our customer’s perceived value of the CMON brand, and that serves the best interests of our consumers, retailers, and distributors.
CMON's MAPP focuses primarily on advertising vs. the actual price of the product (in CMON's case, products cannot be advertised lower than 15% of the standard retail price). A MAPP's attempt to "reduce counterfeiting" may not be comprehensive enough. Six years later, any concerns about keeping counterfeit and copycat products off digital shelves are quickly dispelled by browsing Thingiverse.

There are miniatures for just about every game imaginable on Thingiverse and Shapeways. Warhammer-compatible models are ubiquitous on Thingiverse (over 1,700 models). Don't like the Robotech miniatures from Palladium's recent Kickstarter? You can print them yourself. Missing a ship for X-Wing? Print it yourself. Fans who have a 3D printer can even make their own terrain with OpenLock, a rival to DwavenForge's terrain.

The hobby market will likely shift its strategy from providing printed products to providing high-quality digital files (indexed PDFs, high-quality 3D models) that can't be purchased for free online. One thing's for sure: if Thingiverse's catalog is any indication, the price of digital products in the 3D space have already been socialized well below digital comics' $0.99.
 

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Michael Tresca

Michael Tresca

tomBitonti

Adventurer
This paragraph is highly disputable:

It's now clear that practically everything Web technology touches starts down the path to gratis, at least as far as we consumers are concerned. Storage now joins bandwidth (YouTube: free) and processing power (Google: free) in the race to the bottom. Basic economics tells us that in a competitive market, price falls to the marginal cost. There's never been a more competitive market than the Internet, and every day the marginal cost of digital information comes closer to nothing.

Neither YouTube nor Google are "free": Both collect valuable user data, with no direct return to the user. (The user is losing the opportunity value of information about their use preferences.)

That price should fall to the marginal cost is not the tendency of pricing schemes: With accurate data, sellers are tending to individual pricing strategies, in which the price is set per user, to a value that is set to the highest that the particular user will bear. This is made more effective because of collected user data (see my preceding paragraph).

Thx!
TomB
 

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Cergorach

The Laughing One
What people also seem to forget is that us consumers don't have infinite space, I currently have a 30 year collection of books, board/card games and miniatures in a room that has more storage space then a lot of people's entire apartments... Especially books and comics, unless it's something truly special, I often just get the pdf. And even then, I'm more picky on what to get because there's so much available these days that I don't have time for everything.

As for 3D printers... That's so much misinformation!

Making a 3D print is not like making a printout of a page or even a book. Most affordable printers also require skill to use that people who haven't used one before don't really understand. This is not a Star Trek matter assembler!

A 3D print requires:
- A 3D printer
- A 3D file
- Material
- Power
- TIME

A 3D printer rangers from the $100 to the $1,000,000+, then there are different types of printing that have pros/cons and purposes.

The 'cheapest' are FDM printers, those have a printhead and deposit material like some sort of inkjet printer. There's a limit on how fine the details are and you're often stuck with visible layer lines. These might be appropriate for some types of terrain, but not human sized 25-35mm models. Still, you get what you pay for, a $100 model often won't perform as well as a highend $3500 model. Personally I'm buying am Original Prusa I3 MK3, that's a $749 kit (plus shipping), a kit that requires assembly. Assembled that printer costs $999. This is one of the most silent and advanced models of it's class (hobbyist), you can buy professional models at $30.000 that are far more user friendly, but wholly outside of the hobbyist purview.

If you want to print 25-35mm human sized models, you'll be looking at SLA printers (like the Form 2, a $3500 printer) that use lasers. Or DLP printer (like the AnyCubic Photon, a $499 printer that uses a projector. SLA printers give sharper details, DLP a little softer details. Both use UV cured resins (which are very tocix btw.) and can be quite messy in operation. Also, the resin isn't cheap. What people forget is that a 32mm model might easily take 5 hours to print on the AnyCubic Photon and no guarantee that the print wil lbe perfect after that. During those 5 hours you need to ventilate the room quite well due to the uv resin fumes. After that it's cleaning the print with alcohol and curing it with UV light. And even then it's still not as strong and durable as PVC or HIPS plastic.

Also, most of the models need 'supports' that make sure the different parts don't falloff or get warped during printing, those require cleanup. In some cases more then traditional assembly of models and moldline cleanup.

Then we have the quality of models, 99,99% on thingyverse is junk compared to the details of a high quality resin model. I've seen some high quality 3D model files available, those are either samples, illegally distributed files or paid for model files. Those often start at the $5+ range if it's of common use, but expect $30+ for 'unique' character models. Making them yourself doesn't ignore the legality issue and doesn't guarantee that it's of quality and takes a lot of time.

MAYBE it could be cheaper if you compare it to a $50+ (FW) resin model, but certainly not to a $30, which you can get online (legally) for $22.50. Not in costs and material. And certainly not when you compare it to a 72 model box of Zombicide for $99 (or $80 online)! But if you want similar quality to a FW model you'll need a $3500+ printer...

Companies like GW do need to keep in mind that there's a limit on the price they can ask for a single miniature due to 3D printing, but certainly their plastic range isn't yet in danger of that. No, a 3D printer is great for models that don't exist yet in an available

Hell, if you want cheaper miniatures and don't have any issues with legality (due to the 3d model files and protected IP), why buy an expensive printer at all? You can buy recasts (illegal!) from multiple sources, or is you don't value your time, you can always make copies yourself (illegal!)...

And while you can 3D files cheap, you get what you pay for. $2.50/model, I don't get really excited for:
http://www.illgottengames.net/products/?category=Miniatures

You want better quality, you pay for it! $19.99 for a large beholder like model:
http://www.rocketpiggames.com/store#!/Monster-Miniatures/c/23474014/offset=0&sort=normal

There are of course far better deals:
https://www.cgtrader.com/crosslances

But it's what your looking for and what the other part is asking for their work, just like in RL...
 

Cergorach

The Laughing One
The last I looked the PDF was going for $5.

I don't see how a company can survive selling their work product for so little. Not if they are going to maintain high production values. Unfortunately, that is what you see now, a proliferation of companies with pretty low production values selling all kinds of total crap. At the same time, tactics by other companies to not produce PDFs aren't exactly giving the customer what they want.

The Zweihander pdf goes for $9.99 on DTRPG. That's a fair price for a pdf. DTRPG charges 30% for it's services, so that's $7 for the publisher. What do you expect that normally a print publisher get's for it's book? They sell it for 45% (or less) of MSRP to a distributor, add to that cost of printing, storage, shipping, etc. Unless your a large player, your not getting that much for your work. Look at some of the older formula's in the forum's publishing section for what's expected.

Sure, there's a lot of garbage (but one man's garbage is another one's treasure), but so was there during the D20 glut in printed form.

Paizo's policy of asking only $9.99 for their core books in pdf is an awesome move, it's low enough that everyone is willing to pick it up at that price if they are even moderately interested in playing it. And while they might earn less per item sold, how many more pdfs will get sold then physical books?
 

Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
This paragraph is highly disputable:



Neither YouTube nor Google are "free": Both collect valuable user data, with no direct return to the user. (The user is losing the opportunity value of information about their use preferences.)

It doesn’t say they’re free. It says they’re on the path to it.

While it is a highly contentious and topical subject, an individual’s user data has very little value to a non-criminal. Like a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a cent. It’s pretty close to free! This stuff only has real value when it’s in enormous quantities.
 
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I know I save money wherever I can. I only buy rpgs at discount on Amazon, and the occasional POD product from Drivethrurpg, and I stopped getting monthly comics to instead wait for months to get the trade at a discount on amazon. Where I was spending 200 dollars a month on comics It's down to 80 because of this tactic. I don't think I'd do digital comics unless the price was super cheap and I could find a quality product to read them on at a decent price. The price for a decent tablet is too expensive for my budget right now, and there are too many things I need to buy for an upcoming move and cool stuff I "need" like an Xbox one so my brother an I can play halo together.

The more people who do this, the more impacts local game and comic stores.

If the trend continues, what do you think Amazon will do when they have eliminated their copmetions? They will raise prices.

At the same time, local game and comics stores have to adapt to, essentially, become community centers and even coordinators. Change or die.
 


Cheap comics have impacted my purchasing. I tend to wait for Marvel to have sales on Amazon and snag e-TPBs for a buck or two apiece.
Why read new comics when there’s so many classics I haven’t read. Working through the Claremont X-men and New Mutants at the moment.

This is impacting my gaming consumption, as cheap PDFs on DMsGuild are nice. And print-on-deman pretty much means I can get a cheap and like new copy of so many classic hard-to-find products.

As for 3D printers... That's so much misinformation!

Making a 3D print is not like making a printout of a page or even a book. Most affordable printers also require skill to use that people who haven't used one before don't really understand. This is not a Star Trek matter assembler!
The catch is 3D are still relatively new. Under a decade for cheap commercial ones.
Give it another decade, especially as the technology grows and buisness savvy people realize they can operate 3D printer marts and just rent out access to printers.

Twenty-five years from now ands 3D printers will probably be as ubiquitous as laser and inkjet printers.
 

Cergorach

The Laughing One
If the trend continues, what do you think Amazon will do when they have eliminated their copmetions? They will raise prices.
Then the competition in Europe goes to the US...

Also with higher prices, there's room for competition on the bottom end of the market. The real power of outfits like Amazon isn't their seemingly bottomless wallet, it's their efficiency in the supply chain. Those automated silos full with goods that robot pickers can pull at 24/7/365 at less space and with more accuracy then any humans could. Your small specialist internet store can't compete with that.

D&D is just another huge companies product (WotC => Hasbro). How many niche products are there on Amazon? I would rather finance the company directly with a good discount through KS for example. There are lots of options imho for the market to develop outside of Amazon.
 

Cergorach

The Laughing One
The catch is 3D are still relatively new. Under a decade for cheap commercial ones.
Give it another decade, especially as the technology grows and buisness savvy people realize they can operate 3D printer marts and just rent out access to printers.

Twenty-five years from now ands 3D printers will probably be as ubiquitous as laser and inkjet printers.

Around 24 years ago I bought a nice little cheap B/W laser printer from Texas Instruments, that thing was near indestructible! After years of fateful service the fuser was damaged and due to TI no longer producing printers, a replacement part was unfindable. At the time I went looking for a replacement printer of the same size, functionality, pricing, etc. Nothing! Even now, I'm hard pressed to find something in that price range (after inflation) and that form factor. In the last 25 years Laser print technology hasn't gotten any better and is essentially still the same.

The only reason that 3D printing has changed so much is due to the expiration of patents in 2006 and Open Source projects running wild with it and a few pioneers in the field driving hobbyist prices down. Kickstarter and Alibaba also have a huge impact. But honestly, I know how the average joe is with 2D printers (morons), that's not really going to change with 3D printers. I think that 25 years you mentioned is more like "We'll surely have flying cars and rocket packs!" and less then reality. Sure quality will improve immensely, it'll certainly become easier to 3D print well, but the market is still driven by the OS community in the hobbyist field. Large companies won't touch that because it's based on old tech (patents elapsed) and will focus on cutting edge stuff that's very expensive. Heck Formlabs is making a SLS printer (Fuse 1) for €12,099+, that's HUGE! But that's still way out of the price range of most consumers. What I expect to make huge changes is societal changes. Things like workerspaces for everyone at walking distances where such products are financed by the community that can also use it, people that operate those things teaching others how to do it, etc. This is already happening on a small scale, but it's mostly done by nerds and if people do know about them, they have no idea how to use it because they lack the knowledge and imagination...

Let's say you have four people, each with their own skills:
- One can draw/design a miniature
- One can 3D sculpt it
- One who knows how that communal Form 2 works and can use it
- One who can resin cast miniatures

Normally that would be a small company, now it could be more of a communal exchange without all the overhead...

[/dreaming]
;-)
 

Tony Vargas

Legend
Miniatures have slowly fallen out of favor among companies like WOTC, who once offered pre-painted randomized miniatures, only to abandon the product after the Great Recession in 2008 made the price of production and shipping unfeasible. WizKids picked up the slack, acting as a consolidator for multiple companies' plastic miniature lines, WOTC included.
Hm. I hadn't heard it presented in that light before.
 

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