I don't know. I suspect a lot of them are at least reasonably informed.Well, just because they aren't playing doesn't mean they are wrong and they might actually not like the game, but it would still be an interesting question how many "uneducated" opinions of 3E or 4E exist, and what did lead to their opinions. But EN World is not the best place for such a poll, because most of us are pretty well informed, and possibly even more aware about their preferences then most.
I didn't get into that in my last poll, I was more interested in seeing how people that played the game reacted, or what people that didn't play yet plan to do.
I think the real issue is, very simply, that there's often a life cycle to a geek. The geek in question can be an RPG geek, a comic book geek, any kind of geek. They start out excited and interested in their geekdom. Eventually, they play out that initial excitement and interest. Then, just as their enjoyment is starting to flag, a new edition comes out, or a new comic book restart, or something that jolts their world a little. So they blame the newness on their lack of interest in their geekdom, when really the change is internal.
With RPGs, I think you get a four stage process of disillusionment.
1. Enthusiastic munchkin. The player is new, he kills monsters, takes their stuff, and thinks its grand. He has a sense of wonder when he casts Stinking Cloud, or finds a magical hat. Chances are his games have, at best, a superficial plotline, but he's having a good time.
2. Intermediate gamer. He understands the game pretty well. He can start to recognize when material is over or under powered. He doesn't just wants to kill monsters and take their stuff, he's already done that. He wants to play unique characters with actual personalities. Chances are his game's plotlines and his characters are still a little superficial, but he's having a good time. He kind of wants more though.
3. Ennui. Ok, he's killed monsters and taken stuff. He knows everything in the books. He's played all the personalities he wants, or, his group isn't interested in interacting with his character's personalities in the way that he wants. Each new campaign seems to be kind of like the last. He may reduce the amount of the game he plays.
4. Anger. He decides that he could play the sort of D&D he wanted if it weren't for some particular boogeyman. Maybe its the munchkin newbies wrecking his game. Maybe its the way his favorite RPG company has "lost its way." Maybe its a new edition that's wrecked what once made the game worth playing, and replaced it with dross. He either quits gaming, or switches to a new system where the cycle starts again.
The problem is that over time our tastes change, and the game honestly changes very little. You can never recapture that initial feeling of obsession and wonder. You have to change what makes you happy, and find a new way to enjoy the game, or move on.
For me, what makes me enjoy the game now is DMing. Its a rush for me to be on stage, responsible for everyone having a great evening, and knowing I've succeeded. Its not what initially drew me to the game, but its what keeps me here now.
I think everyone has to find that spot, or else move on.
It could be worse, though. I know people who go through the cycle I described above, not with games, or comic books, or athletic fandom, but with wives.