Is the RPG Industry on Life Support? (Merged w/"Nothing Dies")

[Thorntangle]

A doubling of the amount of D&D players in that period of time? It would be fantastic if that turns out to be true. That would be very exciting. However I am only cautiously optimistic about these numbers. I'd like to see this confirmed by some independent verification <---- not likely.

From what Charles said, it sounds like D&D and WotC enjoyed success on some quantitative scale (if not comprehensively defined) - so congratulations! And best wishes for an even better year in fy05!

 

[Henry]

If you read this Charles, I'd "give my right eyetooth" for survey data newer than Ryan Dancey's 1999 report, even if it's two or three years old. As great of a job as you are doing, one thing that I always liked about Ryan Dancey's tenure was his openness with information on the state of the industry, and as you say, Hasbro is the ONLY one doing comprehensive market research in this area.

Thank you for sharing what you have, in any event!

 

[eyebeams]

Depends - what counts as "growth of the RPG business as a whole" to you? Does not Mr. Ryan's stated growth of the number of players count?

It depends. Gygax's old book Role-Playing Mastery quotes market research of the time (late 80s) that is about three times that number (IIRC), so taking the long view it underwhelms me. And once again, I wonder at the specific criteria.

Seems to me that what Ryan has said is right in line with what I believe Mr. Cook and others have said. IIRC, in the 1999 data, D&D of some flavor accounted for about 60% of the play going on. Since that time, there have really been only two major game releases - D&D 3.x, and White Wolf's new WoD 2.0.

60% of play is not 60% of marketshare, since gamers can buy more than one RPG. Also, this again depends on how it's measured. Finally, RPGs are rather infamous for being aa hobby where there are lots of people who play but don't buy. One of the questions raised by WotC back in the late 90s was how to get those folks to buy stuff.

Now, if you've nearly doubled the number of gamers, and only one new game has been around to sell to those gamers, who do you think really has the market?

This has nothing to do with who "has" the market, since that's known no matter who's delivering their take on the subject, and obviously wasn't my point, as my specific remarks about Wizards' position should make clear.

I must admit, I stand amazed at people who believe that company representatives will tell them the truth without at least giving it a good spin. It's not their job to do otherwise. Frankly, if Charles Ryan ever said D&D was struggling, he should be reprimanded or fired , *no mattter what the truth is.* It's goes against the basic nature of his job to say anything that could be seen in a negative light and it certainly does no harm.

Don't get me wrong. He's doing his job and besides, I do see it as good news anyway, since you'll recall that I've said I want WotC to succeed (a friend of mine works there, for heaven's sake!), and the very least you can derive from what he posted is that they're in good financial shape.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

I must admit, I stand amazed at people who believe that company representatives will tell them the truth without at least giving it a good spin. It's not their job to do otherwise. Frankly, if Charles Ryan ever said D&D was struggling, he should be reprimanded or fired , *no mattter what the truth is.* It's goes against the basic nature of his job to say anything that could be seen in a negative light and it certainly does no harm.

Where his job is concerned, he has no reason whatsoever to post here at all, least of all some perceived need to propagandize one way or the other.

(Charles, thanks for stopping by-- the info is good news for gamers.)

 

[Toben the Many]

Rather than ask the questions "how can we market to thirteen year olds?"...ask "just exactly what kind of thirteen year olds do we consider our target market?"

And that -- friends is a very different question.

Thank you. I think this is what I've been trying to say all along. Many of the RPG industry's attempts to market to a younger audience has ended in failure because they forgot their own rules. They started to market to kids who wouldn't be interested in D&D anyway. And yes, I'm not just talking about the Dragonstrike game, but the large "boardgame" edition of Dungeons and Dragon relased in the '90's. And I could go on. (The Starcraft RPG and the Diablo supplements come to mind.)

I think that one thing that has been effective for WotC is to suffuse D&D into our culture. This one thing has been probably the most effective marketing tool that I've seen so far. Things like national D&D day, or the glimpse of the Player's Guide in the Whirlpool ad help encourage things like the copious referrences to D&D in shows like South Park, Reno 911, or the ads on Spike TV. All of this creates the sense of a D&D community - just like any national pastime. Baseball has its own community. Basketballs has its own community.

I think today's kids are much more open to the idea of a PnP RPG, because they've played them on the computer. They've heard them referrenced on TV. They understand the idea of stats, rolling to hit, etc. In effect, because of the growing references to these things in our culture. I think that if these things increase, there will be more younger players who ask the fundemental question of, "Hey, what is this game, anyway?" Which is where you start.

 

[Toben the Many]

A doubling of the amount of D&D players in that period of time? It would be fantastic if that turns out to be true. That would be very exciting. However I am only cautiously optimistic about these numbers. I'd like to see this confirmed by some independent verification <---- not likely.

That magic "4 million" number has popped up on a number of independant news sources from the BBC to National Public Radio. I have no reason to doubt it.

Remember that numerous players came back to the game from 1st Edition. There were alot of people who had never played 2nd Edition, who suddenly coverted to 3.0, thanks to WotC's marketing craze.

I remember that across the convention scene in the South East, we saw a flood of new people coming in from the good ol' 1st Edition.

 

[diaglo]

If you read this Charles, I'd "give my right eyetooth" for survey data newer than Ryan Dancey's 1999 report, even if it's two or three years old. As great of a job as you are doing, one thing that I always liked about Ryan Dancey's tenure was his openness with information on the state of the industry, and as you say, Hasbro is the ONLY one doing comprehensive market research in this area.

Thank you for sharing what you have, in any event!

in almost every product for D&D that Hasbeen releases. there is a customer survey card.. postage paid...

i know i've been sending them a flood.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

in almost every product for D&D that Hasbeen releases. there is a customer survey card.. postage paid...

i know i've been sending them a flood.

Great... Folks, unless you want 4e to look like 1e again, you better start sending in your cards.

 

[diaglo]

Great... Folks, unless you want 4e to look like 1e again, you better start sending in your cards.

and their website surveys too like the one MerricB mentioned. http://www.enworld.org/forums/showthread.php?t=108254

and http://www.wizards.com/dnd/article.asp?x=dnd/dx20010226c

 

[Thorntangle]

A news source quoting WotC's own numbers doesn't independently verify. Independent verification comes from research by an outside source with no vested interest in the results.

I have no doubt that the number of people who play D&D has risen. I'm just interested in a figure that doesn't come from the company that produces the product in question. And, personally, I would hope the number would be even bigger.

That magic "4 million" number has popped up on a number of independant news sources from the BBC to National Public Radio. I have no reason to doubt it.