D&D 5E (2024) Is There A New Sheriff in Town?

[Theory of Games]

An exciting time much like the late 70's when Runequest and Chivalry and Sorcery and Tunnels and Trolls all made a splash ... and the 80's where the mighty Avalon Hill released Powers & Perils, plus GURPS was new and Fantasy Hero was new ... and the 90's where FASA - FASA! - put out an actual fantasy RPG called Earthdawn ... and the 2010-ish era where we saw Pathfinder and 13th Age and Shadow of the Demon Lord and Dungeon Crawl Classics and others who were capitalizing on the perceived lack of enthusiasm around 4E D&D, not to mention the OSR thing snowballing right along.

I know not everyone was around for the entire history of RPGs but all of these things were thought of as big deals at the time and many of them went on to at least moderate success and many have some version in print today. None of them "de-throned" D&D and it is extremely unlikely that any of this new wave of OSR-Fallout games will either. It's also very premature to start speculating weeks and months after their release. There's nothing wrong with being excited about new games - there are new ones every year, especially Fantasy games - but the hyperbole is strong with the OP.

No time better than the present. This way, when it does happen and everyone's looking around in shock, I can be the guy that says "Told ya so!"

 

[Micah Sweet]

I do know that over on the Critical Role subreddit there are people saying that if their Campaign 4 were to use Daggerheart instead of D&D that they would not be interested in following it. Campaign 3 also lost a good bit of viewers and momentum versus how well-received the first two were, so CR isn't exactly in the safest position to make a gamble on switching to their own in-house system versus if they had done it earlier.

On the other hand, if they don't it's hard not to see that as a lack of faith in their own bespoke system.

 

[payn]

No time better than the present. This way, when it does happen and everyone's looking around in shock, I can be the guy that says "Told ya so!"

 

[Sacrosanct]

Will Daggerheart beat D&D? I don't think so. Even with CR audience. Kesley's got a much smaller audience than CR and Shadowdark seems to be much more popular than Daggerheart is, or will be. Yeah, it's an offshoot of D&D, but it's not called D&D and not owned by WotC or Hasbro. And yet, from every convention I've been to, it's #2 behind 5e. 3rd place is far behind it.


So we shouldn't even be asking if DH will beat D&D. It's doubtful it will even beat SD.

 

[Mecheon]

No time better than the present. This way, when it does happen and everyone's looking around in shock, I can be the guy that says "Told ya so!"

I respect your optimism, but given I have heard exactly nothing about Daggerheart outside of this forum, I fear it may be misplaced.

Don't forget that even Pathfinder, the competitor with the strongest base to it, couldn't outdo 4E. D&D is far more of a behemoth now than it was in those days, to say nothing of the sheer powerhouse of Baldurs Gate 3 acting as a beacon

 

[Theory of Games]

Don't forget that even Pathfinder, the competitor with the strongest base to it, couldn't outdo 4E. D&D is far more of a behemoth now than it was in those days, to say nothing of the sheer powerhouse of Baldurs Gate 3 acting as a beacon

Why do you guys keep posting this nonsense? Pathfinder outsold 4e multiple times. That, and PF1e was the most-played ttrpg on Roll20 for a period. Add to that that TSR, the company that originally produced D&D, went bankrupt.

D&D isn't some invincible overlord that can't be dethroned. I'm not talking about chance or base opinion - I'm talking about market forces and the fluidity of brand recognition. No one stays on top forever

 

[Morrus]

Why do you guys keep posting this nonsense? Pathfinder outsold 4e multiple times.

Calm down. The issues with basing such a claim on ICv2’s rankings have been pointed out before. Pathfinder did not outsell D&D.

 

[soviet]

The lesson isn't 'D&D can be dethroned, look TSR went bankrupt'.

The lesson is 'D&D is such a powerful brand that it took TSR nearly 30 years of terrible business decisions to go bankrupt'.

(I know they didn't actually go bankrupt)

 

[soviet]

D&D has always been the best-selling RPG. It will almost certainly stay that way. This has little to do with its game design. At best what we can say is that it has always been 'good enough' to not jeapordise its market position.

1. The rules of D&D has changed significantly between editions. The 'TSR era' is very different to the 'WotC era'. 4e is seen as very different from 3e. 5e is sort of a mix of 3e and 4e, the best bits or the worst bits depending on what you value. The game has variously been sold as two simple little books in a red box and three giant hardcovers full of maths. None of this has ever really mattered. Even in the 4e era where it had a very close competitor, that close competitor was selling a version of the previous D&D with the serial numbers filed off, and had a pre-existing direct relationship with the D&D fanbase.

2. D&D is the 'gateway drug'. It's what the vast majority of new players start with. It's what people who don't play RPGs think of when they hear about RPGs. It's what's shown in the movies and the TV shows. It has massive brand recognition and network effects. You can't tell me this is because of a critical analysis of the game rules currently in print, and that if 6e was a rubbish design, or too focused on one style of play, these externalities would suddenly dry up and go away.

I think the only way anyone could ever even hope to dethrone D&D is if you had i) a game based on an extremely hot licensed property that is a craze with the general public (I'm thinking Star Wars and Harry Potter at the height of their popularity), ii) a large publisher that had extremely deep pockets for mainstream distribution, marketing, and outreach to the non-playing public and general media, iii) a very permissive licence (or just embedded within the property owners) so that all the normal difficulties of licensed properties don't interfere, and iv) D&D happened to be at a low point anyway and wasn't able to rescue itself.

 

[Corinnguard]

that close competitor was selling a version of the previous D&D with the serial numbers filed off, and had a pre-existing direct relationship with the D&D fanbase.

I am not sure Pathfinder 1st edition was successful at filing off the serial numbers that connected it to 3e/3.5e. If Paizo had been successful at filing off the serial numbers, it wouldn't have been called by some players, 3.75e D&D.