Yaarel
🇮🇱 🇺🇦 He-Mage
Speculation time.
1. I believe it's in the same demographic space. It's style is the same, it's expressing the same values.
2. It seems (have not played it, read the SRD, read the threads here) to be much more intentional in it's design. It knows what it is, and what it wants to be. I don't believe D&D has this.
3. It's community is coherent. I don't believe D&D has this.
That said?
4. It's a drop in the bucket compared to the monolith that is D&D.
In 5 to 10 years could it supplant D&D? Sure.
I think D&D and Daggerheart lack conflict. As far as I can tell, anything D&D innovates, Daggerheart can also incorporate, and viceversa.
Mechanically, they both look like normal D&D. Daggerheart could easily be a new edition of D&D core rules. It makes the "personality" section more central, emphasizing the narrative aspects of roleplay. 2014 experimented lightly with personality, including quirk, ideal, flaw, and bond. 2025 seems to shy away from formalizing the personality section. But all of this narrative stuff is within the scope of D&D. Whatever Daggerheart does that succeeds, D&D can learn from it. Regards the six abilities, D&D can benefit from disambiguating and balancing them. They are ripe for revision, and Daggerheart looks an interesting way forward.
D&D and Daggerheart dont conflict economically. I assume Darrington Press will continue to publish for both the Daggerheart system and for the D&D 5e system. In the context of 5e, these products are likely to continue to be a distinctive "setting". Note, D&D at large lacks a cohesive community, but each D&D setting such as Forgotten Realms, Eberron, Dark Sun, and so on, tends to have its cohesive community.
D&D players will continue to buy Darrington products. No doubt DnDBeyond will continue to sell and profit from Darrington products. Meanwhile, D&D will continue to incorporate inspirations from any successful experiments from Darrington, and viceversa.
There are reasons why D&D and Darrington have been friendly, especially among the creatives, and will continue to be.