Ken Hite Re: The RPG Industry

[Felon]

Somewhere in the 1990s, comic publishers realized they weren't selling to kids with no income and a casual interest in comics; they were selling to young men who were dedicated fans, and who were willing to pay more for a higher-quality product.

I'd say that when an industry's sales have been in a steady downward spiral for a decade, it's probably time to re-evaluate the things they've "realized" to make sure they're real. The notion that comic fans are both willing and able to pay a premium for glossy paper certainly bears closer examination. Many enjoyed good stories and good illustrations, and found the low-grade of the paper and coloring to be quite acceptable as a means of keeping the medium a cheap form of entertainment.

I like softcovers with black-and-white art too, but that doesn't mean they're profitable.

Felon sighed at the jejune response. "Yes, Madsen" he said in a strained voice. It bothered him to address noncommital retorts that could just as easily have gone without being said. "But that doesn't mean they're not either, does it?"

 

[mmadsen]

I like softcovers with black-and-white art too, but that doesn't mean they're profitable.

/sigh

Why provide a response if it's going to be something utterly non-commital? :\

What was non-commital about that? If black-and-white softcovers are less profitable to produce and sell than full-cover hardcovers -- and that certainly seems to be the case, for Wizards of the Coast at least -- then I wouldn't recommend producing black-and-white softcovers, even if they match my personal tastes (and yours) just fine.

 

[Felon]

What was non-commital about that? If black-and-white softcovers are less profitable to produce and sell than full-cover hardcovers -- and that certainly seems to be the case, for Wizards of the Coast at least -- then I wouldn't recommend producing black-and-white softcovers, even if they match my personal tastes (and yours) just fine.

OK, here's the problem: when sales are going down steadily, year after year, you can't bloody well say "well, we know what works" because the way things are currently working isn't working very well, is it?

I'm suggesting small publishers re-evaluate the value of cheap production costs. And you're telling me it doesn't work, or it might not work, I really can't tell.

 

[mmadsen]

OK, here's the problem: when sales are going down steadily, year after year, you can't bloody well say "well, we know what works" because the way things are currently working isn't working very well, is it?

If full-color hardcovers earn greater profits than black-and-white softcovers -- even if the market's saturated and profits are going down -- then I think I can recommend against producing black-and-white softcovers.

I'm suggesting small publishers re-evaluate the value of cheap production costs. And you're telling me it doesn't work, or it might not work, I really can't tell.

I don't know why you think I'm being ambivalent. I'm willing to listen to an argument for black-and-white softcovers, but I haven't endorsed them as a profitable product to produce and sell.

They may make sense in combination with some other, major shift in business model, but saying "I like less expensive black-and-white softcovers just fine" is not a solid argument for going with a product that doesn't make as much money.

 

[Mistwell]

I guess it's linked to an even greater mystery. Somewhere in the 1990's it was decided in the comics industry that it was no longer viable to produce comics cheaply on low-grade paper in a four-color format. Everything now has to be published on glossy paper with 32-billion color interiors. You pay four bucks for a story that you can read in ten minutes. And not only do people in the industry bemoan the decline of sales, but nobody even contemplates going back to the old ways.

The industry has since continued to evolve. It's now moving to graphic novels. Often with cheap interior paper. And black and white graphic novels often make a lot of money now as well. The "pamphlet" comic book will eventually be a tiny percentage of the total market, and comics will be primarily sold as books.

I also don't hear people bemoaning a decline in sales. I do however hear the San Diego Comic-Con International bemoaning that no matter how fast they expand they cannot keep up with the number of people attending.

In fact, I decided to look up the actual numbers. Here are the sales estimates for comic books (including graphic novels and trade paperbacks) since 2000 as reported by the comic book buyers guide, based on Diamonds reported numbers and estimates of newsstand comics and bookstore TPB sales, and not counting Manga sales (which are also booming).

$400 Million to $450 Million in 2005
$370 Million to $420 Million in 2004
$340 Million to $380 Million in 2003
$300 Million to $330 Million in 2002
$260 Million to $285 Million in 2001
$255 Million to $275 Million in 2000

Does that sound like a decline in sales to you?

 

[Felon]

They may make sense in combination with some other, major shift in business model, but saying "I like less expensive black-and-white softcovers just fine" is not a solid argument for going with a product that doesn't make as much money.

The arguement that lowering prices appeals to customers is somewhat self-evident. Proving that arguement, is of course, something else entirely. That would require market research, or people would just have to do it and note the sales a year later.

But my point is, publishers (particuarly in the comics industry) jumped on the full-color high-grade-paper bandwagon without requiring much evidence. They just decided the premium model was the one to go with. Now, I'm all for experimental endeavors, but this seems like a path that publishers think there's no returning from.

 

[Storm Raven]

The arguement that lowering prices appeals to customers is somewhat self-evident. Proving that arguement, is of course, something else entirely. That would require market research, or people would just have to do it and note the sales a year later.

But my point is, publishers (particuarly in the comics industry) jumped on the full-color high-grade-paper bandwagon without requiring much evidence. They just decided the premium model was the one to go with. Now, I'm all for experimental endeavors, but this seems like a path that publishers think there's no returning from.

There is more at work here than just what the consumer wants. A major change between then and now was a shift in how unsold inventory is treated for tax purposes. It would take a long time to explain here, but basically, the change made it very difficult to hold on to any amount of back stock in the hope that you could sell it at a discounted price later, so publishers (of all stripes) have an incentive to keep print runs small to avoid having anything left in their warehouse (unless, of course, they have a guaranteed seller like a Harry Potter book to bring to market).

 

[Valdur]

I fear that TT will become the Apple Mac of fantasy games

Such a great comment, I have to quoute it, but maybe a little harsh on the Mac. I think TT will eventually disappear except as a curiosity piece, unless the big game companies do some heavy marketing to the younger crowd and lighten up the rule sets (thanks for the idea EGG )

Everyone I know in this hobby likes the face-to-face interaction of TT gaming (that's why many of them play) and dislike computer RPGs BUT several have left TT for computer RPGs because it's better than nothing.

People today have a lot more demands on their time and are more mobile than they were in the 70's. They also have a lot more entertainment options available to them. As computer RPGs get better, it becomes a lot harder to justify the effort of finding and keeping a group for TT.

I think heavy promotion to new gamers and simplification of rule sets is the way to go. The game can't be played without several other players and the more complex the rules, the more likely you are to turn people off or send them to a computer game that does the work for them.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Everyone I know in this hobby likes the face-to-face interaction of TT gaming (that's why many of them play) and dislike computer RPGs BUT several have left TT for computer RPGs because it's better than nothing.

Not by much- I've played computer RPGs since I had an Apple IIe, and none have captured my imagination enough to make me eschew the real thing...or even to play one all the way through (though Ultima III came close).

And yes, for you smarty pants people out there- I have tried the ones that aren't available on Mac.

 

[Steel_Wind]

The areas of tabletop games that seem to be doing well are CCG, board games, and miniatures.

It's pretty hard to pirate a CCG, board game or miniature via .pdf.

There is, however, no shortage of pirated RPG books.

It's not that gamers save money by pirating and then go and spend that money on dishwashers. They redistribute it to other aspects of their hobby they can't download.

Hence, why board game and miniatures are so strong. You think people just found hundreds of dollars out of nowhere to buy D&D minis?

That's my take.