Kickstarter's 'U' Shaped Curve Is A Reverse 'J' And More Pronounced Than You Thought!

Anybody who has run a Kickstarter is familiar with the U-shaped curve--a big number of pledges at first, a long slow flat middle, and then a spike at the end again. And yes, if you've run a Kickstarter, you'll know that that long slow flat bit which is over 3 weeks of your month-long campaign is a killer slog, made especially tough by the euphoria of all that front-loaded launch energy.

These days we can predict one of our Kickstarters' funding totals not just from the first day but from the first 3 HOURS!

In recent years the U-shape has become closer to a reverse J than a U--though that bottom bit of the J is looooong. Kickstarters are so front-loaded now that the tail spike is much, much smaller than the final burst of pledges. It used to be that Kickstarter's '48-hour warning' email as the last couple of days of a campaign were reached was a big factor in the funding. Nowadays, it's more a gentle bump at the end than a massive flurry of last-minute backers.

The data below reflects EN Publishing's own 50+ Kickstarter campaigns, which have raised over $3M, and we've found it holds generally true. Other creators may have different experiences; I can't speak to that. But we hope an insight into our own experiences might be interesting to those thinking of running their first Kickstarter.

Generally, we'll make one-third of our funding total in the first day. When running a Kickstarter, after one day, we look at the current funding and multiply it by 3--that's our projected total. Assuming, of course, we don't have some kind of gamebreaking promotion planned partway through; if Oprah is going to promote our campaign on day 15, then all bets are off. But for most Kickstarters, this holds true. And Oprah has never promoted our campaigns.

Now, just HOW front loaded is it? Let's look at our current Kickstarter, Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes. Kicktraq show you the traditional shape, as expected:

No surprise there. Pretty typical for a Kickstarter campaign. The first day is big, the second is under half that, the third half again, then you're into the endless Sunday teatime of the 'middle bit'.

BUT, Kickstarter now offers a more granular view of these stats. Instead of daily, you can see them by HOUR. And that shows us just how front-loaded these things are. The big spike isn't just the first day... it's the first couple of HOURS. This is the first 7 days of Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes. Each of these bars is an hour, not a day:

Look how much of that funding happened literally in the first couple of hours. The first day is busy overall, sure, but it's the first couple of hours where the big spike is.

The old maxim -- first day times 3 -- still hold true. But we can also say that the first 3 hours x 5 is a strong guide of what a campaign will do. In the first day, MoMe2 did £38K. Three times that is a projected £114K total. That's the region we're projecting it to end in, and that tends to be fairly accurate over our 50 campaigns. Yes, we keep a spreadsheet which includes every campaign we've run, it's funding totals at various points, pre-launch followers, all sorts of stuff, and that lets us make some fancy little algorithms to predict our Kickstarters pretty accurately. We're nerds like that. It's a BIG spreadsheet.

But let's look at those first 3 hours. £14,797 + £5,501 + £3,102 = £23,400 in the first 3 hours.

Our projected total is £114K, so dividing that by £23.4K we get 4.8. Close enough that we could guess that the funding total will be 5 times the 3-hour total. Now, this isn't down to the exact dollar--it's not magic!--but it puts us in the right ballpark.

• 5 x the 3-hour total.
• 3 x the day-1 total.

Of course this will vary a bit depending on how long your 'day 1' is. This isn't the first 24 hours, it's until midnight at Kickstarter HQ, which is Eastern Time, US. We usually launch at 4pm UK time, which is 11am ET, making 'day 1' a 13-hour period. You could run these numbers using 24-hours, or other time zones, etc., but we went with that because when we started the big spreadsheet, years ago, Kicktraq was the only platform tracking this stuff and that's the time zone it runs on.

Anyway, I don't know if this is useful to anybody. But it's a glimpse into what we've learned about our own Kickstarters.

Also, please back Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes!

 

[Staffan]

We’ve done dozens of ‘mini-quickstarters’. 10 days or so, no stretch goals, product finished before the campaign launches, fulfilled immediately it ends. It’s a model which has worked very well for us for small products.

However, that slow middle stretch might look insignificant but it is over a third of a campaign. For larger campaigns, the month does make mathematical sense, especially if you are using an offset print run which—by the laws of physics and causality—can’t be fulfilled immediately. And if you’re not fulfilling immediately, you can’t let many back up in fulfilment before Kickstarter says nope.

I would also expect that for bigger crowdfunders, a month-long period means people will be getting a paycheck during it which means their entertainment budgets refill with money that hasn't been allocated yet. It probably doesn't make that big a difference for $10-20 things, but likely does for $100 things.

 

[Morrus]

I would also expect that for bigger crowdfunders, a month-long period means people will be getting a paycheck during it which means their entertainment budgets refill with money that hasn't been allocated yet. It probably doesn't make that big a difference for $10-20 things, but likely does for $100 things.

I meant bigger as in 'highly funded campaigns' not as in 'longer campaigns'.

I don't feel that the data supports the idea that the length of the campaign particularly affects the frontloading aspect. We've run dozens of mini-quickstarters (7-14 days) and loads of longer ones (30-ish days) and the pattern is fairly consistent.

 

[Staffan]

I meant bigger as in 'highly funded campaigns' not as in 'longer campaigns'.

I don't feel that the data supports the idea that the length of the campaign particularly affects the frontloading aspect. We've run dozens of mini-quickstarters (7-14 days) and loads of longer ones (30-ish days) and the pattern is fairly consistent.

I didn't mean that the campaign length would affect the front-loading aspect itself. What I mean is that a "quickstarter" is fine for something like "A Night in the Library" (£10 PDF or £22 for book + PDF), but you probably want a full month for something like the Level Up core rules (£60 PDFs or £120 HC+PDF). One is essentially an impulse buy, whereas the other requires some consideration of budgets. And even if people pledge for the big stuff early, that's likely because they know there'll be a paycheck coming between now and then.

 

[MNblockhead]

I find it interesting how may habits as a baker have changed. Early on, I would have been one of the folks contributing to the right side of the "U" curve. I would follow Kickstarters that looked interesting, but would usually not back until close to the deadline. Many more of the Kickstarters I backed at the time were more risky. New creators, highly niche products, etc. I was more cautious about committing and would watch how it was being run and take more time to learn more about the product to avoid impulse backing.

Now? It is mostly preorder. Guaranteeing an order for a trusted creator, for a product I already know a lot about, to ensure it gets made. By the time the project goes live, there has often been months of publicity. Foundry's Ember game is the most recent example.

 

[Thomas Shey]

I would also expect that for bigger crowdfunders, a month-long period means people will be getting a paycheck during it which means their entertainment budgets refill with money that hasn't been allocated yet. It probably doesn't make that big a difference for $10-20 things, but likely does for $100 things.

That'd be my assumption, too. I only normally back digital levels, but I'm still more likely to be casual about a $10-20 digital tier than I am something higher. After it starts breaking $40 I'm probably going to wait and think about it unless its something I have a great degree of interest in.

 

[Staffan]

That'd be my assumption, too. I only normally back digital levels, but I'm still more likely to be casual about a $10-20 digital tier than I am something higher. After it starts breaking $40 I'm probably going to wait and think about it unless its something I have a great degree of interest in.

A higher price tag doesn't necessarily mean I need to think about it more, it's more an issue of budgeting.

I get paid on the 25th each month (sometimes a day or two earlier on account of weekends/holidays). Let's say I buy a cool board game or expansion on the 1st that takes up most of my entertainment budget. Then, if a big cool crowdfunder comes along on the 5th, and it's only running for two weeks, I might have to pass because it would charge on the 19th . But if it runs for a full month, I know there's another paycheck coming, and then I just need to stay away from more stuff that month.

 

[Thomas Shey]

A higher price tag doesn't necessarily mean I need to think about it more, it's more an issue of budgeting.

I'm naturally cheap. It comes of having been raised by parents who grew up in the Great Depression. I could probably have ten times the money I do and I'd still tend to draw the line there.

I get paid on the 25th each month (sometimes a day or two earlier on account of weekends/holidays). Let's say I buy a cool board game or expansion on the 1st that takes up most of my entertainment budget. Then, if a big cool crowdfunder comes along on the 5th, and it's only running for two weeks, I might have to pass because it would charge on the 19th . But if it runs for a full month, I know there's another paycheck coming, and then I just need to stay away from more stuff that month.

Well, given I'm always paying with a credit card, that doesn't directly impact me other than the fact I'm always hesitant to pump the credit card up (another expression of my cheapness).

 

[The Grinning Frog]

I'm not going to argue about Morrus' numbers. I mean, he's done the maths and has the figures so they are correct for him. I launched fifteen Kickstarters last year, (that includes the one that is still running and ends January 7th 2025). So, from this article perspective I ran 14 in 2024. (Technically more but let's not side-track into collaborations.)

I had a definite 'U' to my funding and I think I know why. You see, whilst I'm a busy boy with running, launching, fulfilling etc where I totally fall down is I do very little pre-marketing or promotion.

At best, around a week before launching a campaign I start to tell previous backers about the new campaign. Sometimes I even remember to post on EnWorld that I've launched a campaign but typically only once the campaign is underway. (Case in point being my current one where I've only just posted in the promotions area about it, with four days to go out of 22 days.)

The Grinning Frog is a two-man band (plus retained editor and some occasional helpers) and my priority is creation and fulfilment. I suspect this is the case with many smaller outfits and this contributes to the U. I see updates as a powerful tool when running a KS and I put considerable effort into them. Example. It is my experience that I rack up quite a good volume of followers during a campaign and they come good in the final 48 hours. Hence the U.

I suspect that Morrus is a big enough name that when he does his initial advertising (which I effectively don't do) and then launches, he does so with his established buyers already primed and ready. That puts his campaign on a high enough level that people consistently then come to him during the rest of the period because a) it's him and b) the campaign is clearly doing well (people like to back successful campaigns).

I accept that my conclusions there are speculations but for the last four years I have made my living creating games and RPG content which are then sold through Kickstarter initially.

And yes, I know, marketing. I'll be actually doing some in 2025. And if I start to get bigger KS's and an L, then I'll come back and let folks know!

 

[chuckdee]

Thanks for your perspective - this is what I figured. And when I launch my own at some point in the unspecified future, I expect I'll see the same.

 

[The Grinning Frog]

Thanks for your perspective - this is what I figured. And when I launch my own at some point in the unspecified future, I expect I'll see the same.

I believe it is a more common experience than Morrus has experienced but that is conjecture. What I can confirm is that Kickstarter can work and be a viable means to bring a game product to market. Even if it is just you and your imagination.