Anybody who has run a Kickstarter is familiar with the U-shaped curve--a big number of pledges at first, a long slow flat middle, and then a spike at the end again. And yes, if you've run a Kickstarter, you'll know that that long slow flat bit which is over 3 weeks of your month-long campaign is a killer slog, made especially tough by the euphoria of all that front-loaded launch energy.
These days we can predict one of our Kickstarters' funding totals not just from the first day but from the first 3 HOURS!
In recent years the U-shape has become closer to a reverse J than a U--though that bottom bit of the J is looooong. Kickstarters are so front-loaded now that the tail spike is much, much smaller than the final burst of pledges. It used to be that Kickstarter's '48-hour warning' email as the last couple of days of a campaign were reached was a big factor in the funding. Nowadays, it's more a gentle bump at the end than a massive flurry of last-minute backers.
The data below reflects EN Publishing's own 50+ Kickstarter campaigns, which have raised over $3M, and we've found it holds generally true. Other creators may have different experiences; I can't speak to that. But we hope an insight into our own experiences might be interesting to those thinking of running their first Kickstarter.
Generally, we'll make one-third of our funding total in the first day. When running a Kickstarter, after one day, we look at the current funding and multiply it by 3--that's our projected total. Assuming, of course, we don't have some kind of gamebreaking promotion planned partway through; if Oprah is going to promote our campaign on day 15, then all bets are off. But for most Kickstarters, this holds true. And Oprah has never promoted our campaigns.
Now, just HOW front loaded is it? Let's look at our current Kickstarter, Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes. Kicktraq show you the traditional shape, as expected:
No surprise there. Pretty typical for a Kickstarter campaign. The first day is big, the second is under half that, the third half again, then you're into the endless Sunday teatime of the 'middle bit'.
BUT, Kickstarter now offers a more granular view of these stats. Instead of daily, you can see them by HOUR. And that shows us just how front-loaded these things are. The big spike isn't just the first day... it's the first couple of HOURS. This is the first 7 days of Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes. Each of these bars is an hour, not a day:
Look how much of that funding happened literally in the first couple of hours. The first day is busy overall, sure, but it's the first couple of hours where the big spike is.
The old maxim -- first day times 3 -- still hold true. But we can also say that the first 3 hours x 5 is a strong guide of what a campaign will do. In the first day, MoMe2 did £38K. Three times that is a projected £114K total. That's the region we're projecting it to end in, and that tends to be fairly accurate over our 50 campaigns. Yes, we keep a spreadsheet which includes every campaign we've run, it's funding totals at various points, pre-launch followers, all sorts of stuff, and that lets us make some fancy little algorithms to predict our Kickstarters pretty accurately. We're nerds like that. It's a BIG spreadsheet.
But let's look at those first 3 hours. £14,797 + £5,501 + £3,102 = £23,400 in the first 3 hours.
Our projected total is £114K, so dividing that by £23.4K we get 4.8. Close enough that we could guess that the funding total will be 5 times the 3-hour total. Now, this isn't down to the exact dollar--it's not magic!--but it puts us in the right ballpark.
Anyway, I don't know if this is useful to anybody. But it's a glimpse into what we've learned about our own Kickstarters.
Also, please back Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes!
These days we can predict one of our Kickstarters' funding totals not just from the first day but from the first 3 HOURS!
In recent years the U-shape has become closer to a reverse J than a U--though that bottom bit of the J is looooong. Kickstarters are so front-loaded now that the tail spike is much, much smaller than the final burst of pledges. It used to be that Kickstarter's '48-hour warning' email as the last couple of days of a campaign were reached was a big factor in the funding. Nowadays, it's more a gentle bump at the end than a massive flurry of last-minute backers.
The data below reflects EN Publishing's own 50+ Kickstarter campaigns, which have raised over $3M, and we've found it holds generally true. Other creators may have different experiences; I can't speak to that. But we hope an insight into our own experiences might be interesting to those thinking of running their first Kickstarter.
Generally, we'll make one-third of our funding total in the first day. When running a Kickstarter, after one day, we look at the current funding and multiply it by 3--that's our projected total. Assuming, of course, we don't have some kind of gamebreaking promotion planned partway through; if Oprah is going to promote our campaign on day 15, then all bets are off. But for most Kickstarters, this holds true. And Oprah has never promoted our campaigns.
Now, just HOW front loaded is it? Let's look at our current Kickstarter, Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes. Kicktraq show you the traditional shape, as expected:
No surprise there. Pretty typical for a Kickstarter campaign. The first day is big, the second is under half that, the third half again, then you're into the endless Sunday teatime of the 'middle bit'.
BUT, Kickstarter now offers a more granular view of these stats. Instead of daily, you can see them by HOUR. And that shows us just how front-loaded these things are. The big spike isn't just the first day... it's the first couple of HOURS. This is the first 7 days of Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes. Each of these bars is an hour, not a day:
Look how much of that funding happened literally in the first couple of hours. The first day is busy overall, sure, but it's the first couple of hours where the big spike is.
The old maxim -- first day times 3 -- still hold true. But we can also say that the first 3 hours x 5 is a strong guide of what a campaign will do. In the first day, MoMe2 did £38K. Three times that is a projected £114K total. That's the region we're projecting it to end in, and that tends to be fairly accurate over our 50 campaigns. Yes, we keep a spreadsheet which includes every campaign we've run, it's funding totals at various points, pre-launch followers, all sorts of stuff, and that lets us make some fancy little algorithms to predict our Kickstarters pretty accurately. We're nerds like that. It's a BIG spreadsheet.
But let's look at those first 3 hours. £14,797 + £5,501 + £3,102 = £23,400 in the first 3 hours.
Our projected total is £114K, so dividing that by £23.4K we get 4.8. Close enough that we could guess that the funding total will be 5 times the 3-hour total. Now, this isn't down to the exact dollar--it's not magic!--but it puts us in the right ballpark.
- 5 x the 3-hour total.
- 3 x the day-1 total.
Anyway, I don't know if this is useful to anybody. But it's a glimpse into what we've learned about our own Kickstarters.
Also, please back Monstrous Menagerie II: Hordes & Heroes!
) represents typical participation patterns. There is an initial burst of enthusiasm from people already interested in the product/producer, or people looking for something new. At the end of the campaign you get the "I will wait and see if this project actually gets funded before committing" people or "I will wait and see all the achieved stretch goals before committing" people. For campaigns with stretch goals, you get a bump from people adding to their pledges near the end to reach a certain stretch goal. Lastly, there is the FOMO effect toward the end.
