Ten years IS the short term.
ok, so when is the long term then, and also who is to say how it does in another 10 or 20 years based on whatever iteration they make in the meantime
Have you not noticed the negative responses to 5.5e? Have you not seen how things are splintering, folks are re-evaluating their commitments, sales aren't being crowed about from the rooftops, etc., etc.?
A new version always has some people not liking it, that is nothing new (and yes, I do nit like 2024 myself).
As to sales, all I have heard is that it was the fastest selling edition and that pretty much right now both starter sets are sold out. Not exactly a sign of low sales.
For someone like me, who credits a lot of the success of 5th Edition to a combination of luck and timing, it's really quite clear the honeymoon is over and folks aren't satisfied anymore. 5.5e will last a while, because a (first) re-release always does that.
I guess you are basing this more on your general dislike of 5e and cherry-picking than anything objective.
The honeymoon phase has been over for years, I have heard people saying it went downhill with Tasha’s, and yet D&D kept growing.
That being said, nothing grows forever, so and end of growth for a while is not the end of evergreen for me. For that it would have ti really tank.
"It succeeded so it will always succeed forever and everything after this should imitate it as closely as possible" is a really bad policy.
it is also contradicted by thousands of years ago f human history. I am not expecting that from literally anything, so if that is your requirement for something to be evergreen, then yeah, nothing ever will be
"5e was a success" isn't an argument that's going to get a lot of traction with me, more or less. Sure, what's past is prologue, but things change. If you think those changes don't matter, you're gonna have to actually bring evidence to the table.
how about you bring yours first for simple being the death of sales in the long run… I am not expecting 5e to last forever, I do not think its ‘simplicity’ will have anything to do with that however
I am very much of the opinion that the buying public has, over time, decided that 5e was simplification taken too far.
care to back that up with anything given your previous ‘you gotta bring evidence’?
Most of the successful / other TTRPGs are actually simpler than 5e, so the market seems to think 5e is at best to complex, but certainly not complex enough
Again in my own personal experience, the thing I hear from tons of people, across a wide gulf of interest, personal history, and rules-preferences, is that D&D 5th Edition does not give them enough personal expression in how they build their characters.
Assuming this were true for the general public, they would need more variety, that is not the same as wanting a more complex game
People are specifically talking about making every class more simple than it already is. That's the essence of "all simple all the time".
yes, I believe the whole game should be slightly simpler. Creating your character is part of that, as is having simple subclasses. That does nit mean that all of them have to be simple, ie your ‘all the time’ part.
I also see no evidence that 5e is losing any sales due to it being too low in complexity. Can it lack complexity for someone who has been playing for 7-10 years, sure, they might have seen it all by then, but again, it is evergreen if it keeps on bringing in new people all the time, not when it hangs on to the same 500k players forever.
People do not play D&D for 10 years, with very few exceptions, so designing a game that tries to do that over being easy for new people to pick up, will fail in a few years. See 3e