Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

Truename said:
Mengu suggested comparing a Guardian Fighter to the Greatweapon Fighter we've been using:

I had some time to work on the sim today, so I coded it up. The results impressed me. The Guardian Fighter and Greatweapon Fighter are nearly perfectly balanced against each other. My sim showed the Greatweapon fighter surviving 60.2% of the fights. The Guardian fighter survived 58.5%. The results were so close, I had to run them again at 10x the resolution (100,000 simulations rather than 10,000), even though that takes over ten minutes each to run.

The final results: Greatweapon, 60.3%; Guardian, 58.0%.

I'm impressed. Although they use a lot of the same powers, the two builds are pretty different. The Greatweapon fighter averages 33 damage in the first round when he hits and has an action point. This often allows him to mop up the soldier before he gets a hit in. I see it all the time when I look at the combat examples. The Guardian fighter, on the other hand, averages 25 damage under the same circumstances. I just don't see the rapid mop-up with the Guardian.

If you look at the example combats, the two builds play out very differently... but their survivability is practically the same. Bravo WoTC.
Click to expand...

A few points:
1) Both fighters select Reaping Strike. It's a much better power for two-handed wielders; this probably accounts for the amount the Great Weapon fighter does better in the simulation. Guardian fighters probably wouldn't take it in the first place; however, the simulation is (quite reasonably) not set up to allow Cleave or Tide of Iron, for example, to have any effect beyond a basic attack.

2) In general, Toughness is going to be worse than for this character, since +5 HP increases HS value by 2 (27 - 32 HP) here, but 1 most of the time.

3) Of course, Dwarven Weapon Training is much better than most offensive feats that non-Dwarf races could take at level 1.
 

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Splat.

I've run the simulation for the full range of DMG-recommended encounters (lvl+0 to lvl+5) and um... well, splat. Survivability drops off quick in these one-on-one fights. I imagine a full party would help a lot.

Note that I've run this sim at very low resolution (1,000 days) due to the number of scenarios involved. There's probably a good +/-5% margin of error on the survival rates. I also turned off the sample combats--the output with combats included was 684KB, which I doubt Morrus would appreciate.

Despite the low resolution, the balance that we saw between the Greatweapon and Guardian fighters at level 1 seems pretty consistent. The Guardian fighter lags behind just a bit, possibly due to the poor build choices Elric mentioned.

Oh, there's one other fix in the system now--while adding the Soldier's leveling code, I discovered that I forgot to include Soldier's innate +2 initiative bonus. I was only including his dexterity modifier before. I'm not sure if the new initiative bonuses are correct (they're 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 8 going from level 1 to 6), but that's my best interpretation of DMG p.184.

The new initiative bonus cut down the dwarves' survivability a bit, which is why it's lower even in the fight against the level 1 soldier.

[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter vs. Level 1 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter:
  Stats: HP 27; AC 17; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Mordencrad:
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 6 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 1 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 29; AC 17; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +3
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 2.3
  1 (36.5%): ===================================================================
  2 (62.5%): ===============================================
  3 (81.8%): ===================================
  4 (93.0%): ====================
  5 (97.7%): ========
  6 (99.4%): ===

Avg fights survived: 3.9
  0  (2.1%): ==
  1 (11.9%): ===========
  2 (18.6%): ========
  3 (33.4%): =================
  4 (44.2%): ============
  5(100.0%): ===================================================================

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): 1.9 of 10
  0 (42.8%): ===================================================================
  1 (56.3%): =====================
  2 (68.6%): ===================
  3 (76.5%): ============
  4 (83.2%): ==========
  5 (88.9%): ========
  6 (95.0%): =========
  7 (98.2%): =====
  8 (99.6%): ==

Survival rate: 55.8%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter vs. Level 1 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter:
  Stats: HP 32; AC 19; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Warhammer:
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 1 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 29; AC 17; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +3
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 4.0
  1  (7.0%): ======================
  2 (22.4%): ================================================
  3 (43.4%): ===================================================================
  4 (64.0%): =================================================================
  5 (80.5%): ====================================================
  6 (90.5%): ===============================
  7 (96.2%): ==================
  8 (98.5%): =======
  9 (99.5%): ==

Avg fights survived: 3.8
  0  (4.3%): =====
  1 (13.8%): ===========
  2 (20.2%): ========
  3 (32.7%): ===============
  4 (46.4%): =================
  5(100.0%): ===================================================================

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): 1.2 of 10
  0 (53.4%): ===================================================================
  1 (68.5%): ==================
  2 (80.6%): ===============
  3 (88.6%): ==========
  4 (94.0%): ======
  5 (97.0%): ===
  6 (98.7%): ==

Survival rate: 53.6%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter vs. Level 2 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter:
  Stats: HP 27; AC 17; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Mordencrad:
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 6 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 2 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 37; AC 18; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +5
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+9 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+9 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 3.0
  1 (18.3%): ==============================================
  2 (44.5%): ===================================================================
  3 (67.8%): ===========================================================
  4 (82.7%): ======================================
  5 (92.6%): =========================
  6 (97.6%): ============
  7 (99.2%): ====
  8 (99.9%): =

Avg fights survived: 2.4
  0 (12.0%): =============================
  1 (39.2%): ===================================================================
  2 (53.4%): ==================================
  3 (73.8%): ==================================================
  4 (85.6%): =============================
  5(100.0%): ===================================

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): 0.6 of 10
  0 (75.0%): ===================================================================
  1 (86.1%): =========
  2 (88.9%): ==
  3 (93.1%): ===
  4 (95.8%): ==
  5 (98.6%): ==
  6(100.0%): =

Survival rate: 14.4%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter vs. Level 2 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter:
  Stats: HP 32; AC 19; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Warhammer:
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 2 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 37; AC 18; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +5
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+9 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+9 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 5.2
  1  (1.0%): ===
  2  (7.2%): ======================
  3 (21.1%): ===================================================
  4 (38.8%): =================================================================
  5 (57.0%): ===================================================================
  6 (75.1%): ==================================================================
  7 (87.2%): ============================================
  8 (94.3%): ==========================
  9 (97.5%): ===========
 10 (98.7%): ====
 11 (99.4%): ==

Avg fights survived: 2.4
  0 (13.6%): ==========================================
  1 (35.1%): ===================================================================
  2 (51.2%): ==================================================
  3 (72.5%): ==================================================================
  4 (87.3%): ==============================================
  5(100.0%): =======================================

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): 0.3 of 10
  0 (85.0%): ===================================================================
  1 (90.6%): ====
  2 (92.9%): =
  3 (98.4%): ====
  4(100.0%): =

Survival rate: 12.7%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter vs. Level 3 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter:
  Stats: HP 27; AC 17; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Mordencrad:
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 6 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 3 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 45; AC 19; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +5
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+10 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+10 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 3.4
  1 (14.9%): =============================================
  2 (34.5%): ===========================================================
  3 (56.6%): ===================================================================
  4 (75.2%): ========================================================
  5 (87.7%): =====================================
  6 (94.8%): =====================
  7 (98.3%): ==========
  8 (99.3%): ==
  9 (99.6%): =
 10(100.0%): =

Avg fights survived: 1.3
  0 (24.6%): =====================================
  1 (68.5%): ===================================================================
  2 (80.8%): ==================
  3 (93.4%): ===================
  4 (97.8%): ======
  5(100.0%): ===

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): 0.2 of 10
  0 (86.4%): ===================================================================
  1 (95.5%): =======
  2(100.0%): ===

Survival rate: 2.2%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter vs. Level 3 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter:
  Stats: HP 32; AC 19; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Warhammer:
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 3 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 45; AC 19; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +5
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+10 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+10 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 6.3
  2  (0.9%): ===
  3  (7.5%): =======================
  4 (20.6%): ===============================================
  5 (39.0%): ==================================================================
  6 (57.3%): ===================================================================
  7 (73.3%): ==========================================================
  8 (83.2%): ====================================
  9 (91.3%): =============================
 10 (95.8%): ================
 11 (98.1%): ========
 12 (99.4%): ====

Avg fights survived: 1.1
  0 (35.7%): ==================================================================
  1 (71.8%): ===================================================================
  2 (86.3%): ==========================
  3 (96.1%): ==================
  4 (99.2%): =====
  5(100.0%): =

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): 0.0 of 10
  0(100.0%): ===================================================================

Survival rate: 0.8%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter vs. Level 4 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter:
  Stats: HP 27; AC 17; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Mordencrad:
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 6 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 4 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 53; AC 20; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +6
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+11 vs. AC
      Hit: 3d8+4 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+11 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 3.4
  1 (13.1%): ======================================
  2 (34.9%): ===============================================================
  3 (57.9%): ===================================================================
  4 (76.8%): =======================================================
  5 (87.7%): ===============================
  6 (96.0%): ========================
  7 (98.0%): =====
  8 (99.1%): ===
  9 (99.4%): =
 10(100.0%): =

Avg fights survived: 0.5
  0 (54.0%): ===================================================================
  1 (93.1%): ================================================
  2 (98.6%): ======
  3 (99.9%): =

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): nan of 10

Survival rate: 0.0%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter vs. Level 4 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter:
  Stats: HP 32; AC 19; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Warhammer:
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 4 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 53; AC 20; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +6
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+11 vs. AC
      Hit: 3d8+4 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+11 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 6.8
  2  (0.3%): =
  3  (4.6%): ===============
  4 (15.2%): =====================================
  5 (29.9%): ===================================================
  6 (46.8%): ===========================================================
  7 (65.8%): ===================================================================
  8 (77.6%): =========================================
  9 (89.9%): ===========================================
 10 (94.8%): =================
 11 (98.0%): ===========
 12 (99.1%): ====
 13 (99.7%): ==
 16(100.0%): =

Avg fights survived: 0.3
  0 (69.4%): ===================================================================
  1 (96.0%): =========================
  2 (99.8%): ===

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): nan of 10

Survival rate: 0.0%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter vs. Level 5 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter:
  Stats: HP 27; AC 17; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Mordencrad:
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 6 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 5 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 61; AC 21; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +6
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+12 vs. AC
      Hit: 3d8+4 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+12 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 3.4
  1 (10.5%): ============================
  2 (35.3%): ===================================================================
  3 (55.6%): ======================================================
  4 (74.8%): ===================================================
  5 (87.6%): ==================================
  6 (95.5%): =====================
  7 (98.9%): =========
  8 (99.6%): ==
  9(100.0%): =

Avg fights survived: 0.3
  0 (74.6%): ===================================================================
  1 (98.8%): =====================
  2(100.0%): =

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): nan of 10

Survival rate: 0.0%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter vs. Level 5 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter:
  Stats: HP 32; AC 19; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Warhammer:
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 5 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 61; AC 21; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +6
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+12 vs. AC
      Hit: 3d8+4 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+12 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 7.5
  3  (1.7%): ======
  4  (5.8%): ===============
  5 (20.7%): ======================================================
  6 (38.8%): ===================================================================
  7 (52.1%): ================================================
  8 (66.9%): ======================================================
  9 (79.3%): =============================================
 10 (89.3%): ====================================
 11 (95.9%): ========================
 12 (98.3%): =========
 13(100.0%): ======

Avg fights survived: 0.1
  0 (88.7%): ===================================================================
  1 (99.3%): ========

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): nan of 10

Survival rate: 0.0%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter vs. Level 6 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Greatweapon Fighter:
  Stats: HP 27; AC 17; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Mordencrad:
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 6 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 6 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 69; AC 22; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +8
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+13 vs. AC
      Hit: 3d8+4 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+13 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 3.8
  1  (1.0%): ==
  2 (18.2%): =======================================
  3 (47.5%): ===================================================================
  4 (71.7%): =======================================================
  5 (82.8%): =========================
  6 (93.9%): =========================
  7(100.0%): =============

Avg fights survived: 0.1
  0 (90.1%): ===================================================================
  1(100.0%): =======

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): nan of 10

Survival rate: 0.0%
[/sblock]
[sblock=Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter vs. Level 6 Soldier]

[sblock=Combatants]
Code: 
Level 1 Dwarf Guardian Fighter:
  Stats: HP 32; AC 19; Surges 10; Action Points 1
  Initiative Bonus: +2
  Weapons:
    Warhammer:
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
  Powers:
    Dwarven Resilience:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.

Level 6 Soldier:
  Stats: HP 69; AC 22; Surges 1; Action Points 0
  Initiative Bonus: +8
  Powers:
    Soldier Encounter Attack:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+13 vs. AC
      Hit: 3d8+4 damage
    Soldier Basic Attack:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+13 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
[/sblock]
Code: 
Days simulated: 1000

Avg rounds per fight (when survived): 7.0
  4 (10.7%): =================================
  5 (32.1%): ===================================================================
  6 (42.9%): =================================
  7 (60.7%): =======================================================
  8 (78.6%): =======================================================
  9 (85.7%): ======================
 10 (92.9%): ======================
 11 (96.4%): ===========
 13(100.0%): ===========

Avg fights survived: 0.0
  0 (97.2%): ===================================================================
  1(100.0%): =

Avg surges remaining (survivors only): nan of 10

Survival rate: 0.0%
[/sblock]
 

Thinking more about this, I wonder how different roles are going to fair against the soldier. The three I'd be curious to see are:

Half-orc Two-weapon Ranger with 18 str/dex and a pair of Bastard Swords (or maybe Waraxes). The 5 THP when bloodied should be interesting since it both makes up for the dwarf's minor action second wind, and the ranger's significantly fewer healing surges. I don't know if this is quite worth the test because the reaping strike greatweapon fighter is also essentially a striker.

Goliath Battle Cleric with Str 18, Con 16, Dex 10, Int 8, Wis 14, Cha 13, Goliath Greatweapon Prowess, using Priest's Shield, Healing Strike, Moment of Glory. The three heals per encounter should make a significant difference in early day encounter survival. Moment of Glory should make one fight fairly trivial and reserve healing surges. I expect the cleric would rarely, if ever need second wind.

Human Swarm Druid with Con 16, Dex 13, Wis 18, Toughness, Hide Armor Expertise, Githzerai Swarm Druid with Con 16, Dex 15, Wis 18, Toughness, Swarming Locusts, Scattered Form, Fog of Insects (would have liked Summon Giant Toad, but that would require some very fancy AI to be effective). In this case the damage resistance might be too ideal against the soldier, but I went with Human Githzerai instead of Dwarf or Wilden, as a small resistance handicap, though the extra feat racial encount power might be covering that handicap, hard to say.
 
Last edited:

Wouldn't be surprised if hide armor expertise gets nerfed within the next two months, so I'd advise avoiding builds that use it until the others are well covered.
 

keterys said:
Wouldn't be surprised if hide armor expertise gets nerfed within the next two months, so I'd advise avoiding builds that use it until the others are well covered.
Click to expand...

True. Change the build to a Githzerai then. That will be a one point drop in all defenses (except reflex), with a racial encounter power to negate a hit within 2 of his defenses. Everything else can remain the same. (You get a +3 initiative over the human build to boot.)
 

I don't want to derail this most illuminating thread, but why will hide be nerfed? Isn't it just +1 AC leather, for all intents? Now, there may be issues with the variety of "use x instead of int or dex for AC" abilites that have come out, but I wouldn't think that's an issue with hide itself.

That said, rather than hashing that out here and taking away from all of Truename's hard work, if someone could just post a link where I might read on this issue, I would be grateful.

Thanks.
 
Last edited:

Hide Armor Expertise is a feat that allows Con to be used with hide instead of Dex or Int. It's pretty contentious because it catapults some classes that have methods of dealing with low AC (rageblood barbarian's have temp hp and agility for +1 AC per tier, swarm druids have DR, etc) into being the most survivable classes in the game. It might not get nerfed, but there's a lot of hubbub about it happening, so easier to avoid it and concentrate on other things. Like just putting in a cleric and testing that :)
 

I am impressed by the work. Keep doing it. I am also impressed by how close Guardian and Greatweapon Fighter seem to be balanced.

Watching other classes and monster roles in play should be interesting.
 

Truename said:
Note that I've run this sim at very low resolution (1,000 days) due to the number of scenarios involved. There's probably a good +/-5% margin of error on the survival rates. I also turned off the sample combats--the output with combats included was 684KB, which I doubt Morrus would appreciate.
Click to expand...

The 95% confidence margin of error is going to be at most ~ +/- 3% with 1000 days. The margin of error will be lower the farther the true probability of survival is from 50% (you can use the measured survival probability as if it were the true probability and do corresponding calculations). Increasing it to 10,000 trials decreases the (max) 95% confidence internal to just under ~ +/- 1%.

99% confidence intervals are only about a third again as large. Take away: if computing time is an issue, 10,000 trials should be more than enough, and even 1,000 has a reasonably low margin of error.
 

Elric said:
The 95% confidence margin of error is going to be at most ~ +/- 3% with 1000 days. The margin of error will be lower the farther the true probability of survival is from 50% (you can use the measured survival probability as if it were the true probability and do corresponding calculations). Increasing it to 10,000 trials decreases the (max) 95% confidence internal to just under ~ +/- 1%.
Click to expand...

I'd be very interested in programming this algorithm into the sim, if it's not too difficult for you to post it.
 

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