Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

[Truename]

I also would like to see Str 18, Con 16 as the baseline for these tests. A lot of survival/damage knobs and dials we can play with are going to rely on a high Con.

Sure. Why don't you give me the whole set of attributes and I'll put them in. (Is that for both dwarves or just the guardian?) Pre-racial would be best.

The increase in survival from Toughness is good to see, though not surprising at first level. I think Longsword + Toughness may yield marginally better survival numbers than Warhammer + Toughness. A few more things I'd like to see for the dwarf if any of them are easy to do.

1. Expertise instead of DWT or Toughness
2. Plate Armor instead of DWT or Toughness
3. Durable instead of DWT or Toughness
4. Bravo instead of DWT or Toughness
5. Brash Strike instead of Reaping Strike (+2 attack, +3 damage, -2 defenses)

I could do these now, but I want the sim to do more of the calculations for me so it's less error-prone. Still, it's not hard. I might be able to do it today.

And last but not least, I'd be curious to see how well a battlerager dwarf with chain, shield, warhammer, Crushing Surge, and Toughness fairs.

There's no concept of temporary hit points in the sim yet, so that would be a good next step. Same ability scores for this one?

After this, I think the next thing to do is a different race, preferably one whose racial power doesn't involve movement or multiple enemies.

 

[keterys]

Half-Orc and Goliath are probably good picks for a relevant racial. Tiefling would be another good possibility (+1 vs bloodied and 1/enc extra damage)

You'll see a lot of contention on the stats, especially at the moment where the only relevant stats are Str and Con. A pretty normal pre-racial array for a fighter is actually something like 16 Str, 14 Con, 13 Dex, 14 Wis.

 

[Mengu]

Pre-racial, pick one:

1. Str 18, Con 14, Dex 10, Int 8, Wis 11, Cha 10
2. Str 16, Con 16, Dex 11, Int 8, Wis 13, Cha 10
3. Str 16, Con 14, Dex 13, Int 8, Wis 14, Cha 10

All 3 have merit. I'd go with the first one (for all builds) because it's essentially the most min-maxed for this exercise, and a degree of optimization is good so we can compare apples to apples when we start altering parameters. I think #2 is a more "run of the mill" option, and #3 is the more "forward thinker" option.

I think the Half-orc will be a good second test candidate for the fighter (once temp HP's are implemented), Furious Assault and Half-orc Resilience will both be interesting boosts to survival. Also will be curious to see how something like Thirst for Battle influences outcomes.

Longtooth Shifter (regeneration and +2 damage with shifting), Dragonborn (+1 attack while bloodied, higher surge value, minor action attack), Drow (combat advantage for 2 rounds, and -5 attack to enemy), Goliath (resistance, greatweapon prowess), and Githzerai (initiative boost, blade master, per encounter defense boost) might be some other interesting options. Warforged might be interesting too, but it won't be that different than Goliath.

 

[Truename]

A few more things I'd like to see for the dwarf if any of them are easy to do.

1. Expertise instead of DWT or Toughness
2. Plate Armor instead of DWT or Toughness
3. Durable instead of DWT or Toughness
4. Bravo instead of DWT or Toughness
5. Brash Strike instead of Reaping Strike (+2 attack, +3 damage, -2 defenses)

I've changed the builds to use the first array Mengu suggested (except where otherwise stated) and I ran the Expertise, Plate Armor, and Durable sims. I've also improved the fidelity of the model a lot, as you can see if you look at the character sheets. This shouldn't change the results, but it makes it easier for me to try alternate builds and it lays the groundwork for more enhancements in the future.

A couple of interesting things about these results. First, feats seem to be an important part of the balance of the game. I think they're the "nudge" button WoTC pushes to get everything closely balanced. That theory's supported by the way WoTC releases feats--they seem to use them to patch holes in particular race/class/build/playstyle combinations, which explains some of the highly-specific feats out there.

The problem with this approach is that it seems like it makes it easier to create a sub-par character: to patch the holes, you have to figure out which feats (out of over 1500!) are designed for your build and playstyle. The Character Builder helps, but does it help enough?

One thing that surprised me was that the imbalance shown in the baseline builds (with no feats) goes away even if both characters select the same feat. Compare the baseline runs to the Expertise and Plate Armor runs.

(It's possible I made a mistake somewhere. It'd be good to double-check the character sheets.)

The exception to this is the Durable feat. It's just not that useful in the one-on-one scenario we're testing. Survivability is pretty much the same with or without that feat. I don't think it's necessarily the feat that's the problem, though--our scenario is limited in how it triggers healing surges, and the dwarves just don't run out that easily.

Here are the results:

[sblock=PCs
[sblock=Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array1]

Level 1 Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array1:
  HP: 31; AC: 17; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Maul
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6+4 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6+4 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array1]

Level 1 Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array1:
  HP: 31; AC: 19; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array2]

Level 1 Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array2:
  HP: 33; AC: 17; Surges: 13; Action Points: 1
  Str: 16(+3); Con: 18(+4); Dex: 11(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 15(+2); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [16, 16, 11, 8, 13, 10] => [16, 18, 11, 8, 15, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 33 (15 class + 18 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 13 (9 class + 4 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Maul
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6+3 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6+3 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6+3 damage
      Miss: 3 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array2]

Level 1 Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array2:
  HP: 33; AC: 19; Surges: 13; Action Points: 1
  Str: 16(+3); Con: 18(+4); Dex: 11(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 15(+2); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [16, 16, 11, 8, 13, 10] => [16, 18, 11, 8, 15, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 33 (15 class + 18 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 13 (9 class + 4 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+3 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
      Miss: 1 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 8 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array3]

Level 1 Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array3:
  HP: 31; AC: 17; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 16(+3); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 13(+1); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 16(+3); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +1
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [16, 14, 13, 8, 14, 10] => [16, 16, 13, 8, 16, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Maul
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6+3 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6+3 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6+3 damage
      Miss: 3 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array3]

Level 1 Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array3:
  HP: 31; AC: 19; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 16(+3); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 13(+1); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 16(+3); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +1
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [16, 14, 13, 8, 14, 10] => [16, 16, 13, 8, 16, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+3 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+3 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+6 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+3 damage
      Miss: 1 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Greatweapon With DWT]

Level 1 Greatweapon With DWT:
  HP: 31; AC: 17; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Mordencrad is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Mordencrad
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6[brutal 1]
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
    Dwarven Weapon Training: +2 bonus to damage rolls (Mordencrad is in Hammer group).
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6[brutal 1]+6 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian With Toughness]

Level 1 Guardian With Toughness:
  HP: 36; AC: 19; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
    Toughness: Increase hp by 5.
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 9 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Greatweapon With Expertise]

Level 1 Greatweapon With Expertise:
  HP: 31; AC: 17; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Maul
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
    Weapon Expertise (Hammer): +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is in Hammer group).
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6+4 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6+4 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian With Expertise]

Level 1 Guardian With Expertise:
  HP: 31; AC: 19; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
    Weapon Expertise (Hammer): +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is in Hammer group).
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+8 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Greatweapon With Plate Armor]

Level 1 Greatweapon With Plate Armor:
  HP: 31; AC: 18; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Maul
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Plate Armor
      AC Bonus: +8
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6+4 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6+4 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian With Plate Armor]

Level 1 Guardian With Plate Armor:
  HP: 31; AC: 20; Surges: 12; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Plate Armor
      AC Bonus: +8
  Feats:
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Greatweapon With Durable]

Level 1 Greatweapon With Durable:
  HP: 31; AC: 17; Surges: 14; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    Two-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Maul is two-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Maul
      Two-handed weapon
      Damage: 2d6
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Not Applicable
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
    Durable: Increase healing surges by 2.
  Powers:
    Brute Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 6d6+4 damage
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 4d6+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d6+4 damage
      Miss: 4 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[sblock=Guardian With Durable]

Level 1 Guardian With Durable:
  HP: 31; AC: 19; Surges: 14; Action Points: 1
  Str: 18(+4); Con: 16(+3); Dex: 10(+0); Int: 8(-1); Wis: 13(+1); Cha: 10(+0)
  Initiative Bonus: +0
  Race: Dwarf
    Ability Scores: [18, 14, 10, 8, 11, 10] => [18, 16, 10, 8, 13, 10]
    Dwarven Resilience: Use Second Wind as minor action.
  Class: Fighter
    Base HP: 31 (15 class + 16 con + 6 per level gained)
    Base Surges: 12 (9 class + 3 con)
    One-Handed Weapon Talent: +1 bonus to attack rolls (Warhammer is one-handed).
  Items:
    Main hand: Warhammer
      One-handed weapon
      Damage: 1d10
      Proficient: +2
      Group(s): Hammer
    Off-hand: Heavy Shield
      AC Bonus: +2
    Armor: Scale Armor
      AC Bonus: +7
  Feats:
    Durable: Increase healing surges by 2.
  Powers:
    Comeback Strike:
      Daily * Reliable
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 
        2d10+4 damage
        Spend a healing surge
    Steel Serpent Strike:
      Encounter
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 2d10+4 damage
    Reaping Strike:
      At-Will
      Standard Action
      Attack: 1d20+7 vs. AC
      Hit: 1d10+4 damage
      Miss: 2 damage
  Combat Actions:
    Spend Action Point:
      Encounter
      Free Action
      Effect: Spend an action point and gain a standard action.
    Second Wind:
      Encounter
      Minor Action
      Effect:
        Spend a healing surge and regain 7 hit points.
        Gain a +2 defense bonus until end of next turn.

[/sblock]
[/sblock]

Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array1:
  Level+0: 58.8% +/- 3.1%
  Level+1: 18.6% +/- 2.4%
  Level+2: 1.3% +/- 0.7%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array1:
  Level+0: 50.6% +/- 3.1%
  Level+1: 10.6% +/- 1.9%
  Level+2: 0.6% +/- 0.5%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array2:
  Level+0: 52.3% +/- 3.1%
  Level+1: 12.7% +/- 2.1%
  Level+2: 0.9% +/- 0.6%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array2:
  Level+0: 39.8% +/- 3.0%
  Level+1: 6.5% +/- 1.5%
  Level+2: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Greatweapon Baseline-No Feat-Array3:
  Level+0: 41.8% +/- 3.1%
  Level+1: 5.9% +/- 1.5%
  Level+2: 0.2% +/- 0.3%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian Baseline-No Feat-Array3:
  Level+0: 26.9% +/- 2.7%
  Level+1: 1.3% +/- 0.7%
  Level+2: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Greatweapon With DWT:
  Level+0: 74.5% +/- 2.7%
  Level+1: 37.2% +/- 3.0%
  Level+2: 7.2% +/- 1.6%
  Level+3: 0.1% +/- 0.2%
  Level+4: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian With Toughness:
  Level+0: 77.5% +/- 2.6%
  Level+1: 30.2% +/- 2.8%
  Level+2: 3.0% +/- 1.1%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Greatweapon With Expertise:
  Level+0: 65.7% +/- 2.9%
  Level+1: 21.0% +/- 2.5%
  Level+2: 3.3% +/- 1.1%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian With Expertise:
  Level+0: 60.9% +/- 3.0%
  Level+1: 15.3% +/- 2.2%
  Level+2: 0.8% +/- 0.6%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Greatweapon With Plate Armor:
  Level+0: 67.4% +/- 2.9%
  Level+1: 25.8% +/- 2.7%
  Level+2: 3.3% +/- 1.1%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian With Plate Armor:
  Level+0: 63.6% +/- 3.0%
  Level+1: 18.4% +/- 2.4%
  Level+2: 1.2% +/- 0.7%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Greatweapon With Durable:
  Level+0: 64.3% +/- 3.0%
  Level+1: 21.5% +/- 2.5%
  Level+2: 2.4% +/- 0.9%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%
  
Guardian With Durable:
  Level+0: 56.3% +/- 3.1%
  Level+1: 16.3% +/- 2.3%
  Level+2: 0.5% +/- 0.4%
  Level+3: 0.0% +/- 0.0%

 

[eamon]

You don't seem to have tried Greatweapon with Toughness and Guardian with DWT in that last table - are these results comparable to the previous results? since those two feats had the most impact, I'd imagine it's worth a try...

In any case, I wouldn't base an opinion of DWT on these results just yet - you'd want to compare them to a different race; and certainly not just at first level (where toughness is extremely relevant).

 

[Truename]

You don't seem to have tried Greatweapon with Toughness and Guardian with DWT in that last table - are these results comparable to the previous results? since those two feats had the most impact, I'd imagine it's worth a try...

Sure--here's the results vs. a level 1 soldier. This is a 10,000 run sim, so it's more accurate than the previous results.

Greatweapon w/ Toughness instead of DWT: 80.6% +/- 0.8%
Guardian w/ DWT instead of Toughness: 81.2% +/- 0.8%

For comparison, the original builds' results:

Greatweapon w/ DWT: 74.1% +/- 0.9%
Guardian w/ Toughness: 74.8% +/- 0.9%

 

[Truename]

Let's do it.

The original purpose of this sim was to provide some insight into the balance of the 4e math. Specifically, I'm interested in whether the obvious disparity between monsters AC/to-hit and PCs' AC/to-hit at high levels makes as much difference as people think it does, and whether the much-maligned Expertise feats break or fix the game.

I think we're ready to start examining that question. Although there's still a lot missing from the sim (character movement and a full party being the biggest things), the one-on-one combats are pretty good. A trivial analysis of the math says that survivability should steadily drop as character level increases, and that adding Expertise feats would fix the problem. The counter-argument is that powers, feats, paragon paths, epic destinies, and magic items make up the difference. Our one-on-one sim is good enough to answer the question.

Where I need help is with the build. I need a level 1-30 build of our dwarf. Any build is fine so long as it's consistently optimized and "real" (meaning it uses the retraining rules rather than being built from scratch at each level). Magic items should be included--let's assume the dwarf receives one level+2 magic item at each level. Also, restrict yourself to pre-Expertise material: PHB 1 and Martial Power only. (No Dragon, because I'm not sure if it's balanced as carefully as the books.) I'll enhance the sim level by level and post the results as I make progress.

A few restrictions: I'd rather make progress than code up a lot of AI or movement support, so choose tactically simple powers over complicated ones. In particular, don't choose powers or items that affect multiple enemies or apply movement-based conditions like Slow or Immobilize. (Are there enough powers to do this?) Because the benefits of those powers won't be modeled by our sim, they'll skew the results.

So, the questions we're answering: "Does survivability drop significantly from level 1 to 30 when using a pre-Expertise build?" and "If it survivability drops, does Expertise 'fix' it by making survivability rates level? If it doesn't, does Expertise 'break' it by making survivability rates increase from level 1 to 30?" For the sake of argument, my hypothesis is "no" and "no."

I'm looking forward to seeing the results. This won't be the final answer to the math balance question, since we're focusing on just one character in static melee combat, but it should be a far better answer than what we have today.

 

[Jhaelen]

The counter-argument is that powers, feats, paragon paths, epic destinies, and magic items make up the difference. Our one-on-one sim is good enough to answer the question.

Is it, though?
What if the 4e math increasingly depended on having the 4 base roles covered?

E.g. many players have reported they didn't have any problems playing in a party with a non-standard setup, like, say, four strikers and a leader. Will such a setup continue to work well at level 25 or 30?

I believe that 4e will behave similarly to 3e (although to a lesser degree) in that regard. Low-level parties can get away with things that will break them at higher levels. Prime example in 3e: A party without a (healing) cleric.

Also, how do you intend to pick an (equal-level?) opponent for your dwarf at level 1-30?
I think, the higher you go in levels, the more different opponents would have to be picked for comparison, since damage output isn't really the decisive factor for high-level encounters. It's mostly the conditions they inflict that make combat more difficult.

Anyway, I realize this is a necessary intermediate step to get somewhere, so, please continue to work on this

 

[keterys]

Quick search turned up:
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But change Quicksilver Stance to Unyielding Avalanche because of the errata made to Quicksilver (it no longer gives extra attacks per round). Hmm, and maybe a couple other things. Okay, one sec, throwing that build into a character builder and I'll say any changes as necessary...

 

[keterys]

Fighter (Battle Rager) / Iron Vanguard / Demigod

Ability Scores
STR: 16 +3
CON: 18 +4
DEX: 12 +1
INT: 8 -1
WIS: 14 +2
CHA: 10 +0

Increase Str & Con at every opportunity (4,8,etc)

Skills
Athletics, Endurance, Intimidate

Feats
1: Toughness
2: Improved Vigor
4: Dwarven Weapon Training
6: Armor Proficiency (plate)
8: Defensive Resilience
10: Improved Initiative
11: Dwarven Durability
Retrain Defensive Resilience -> Hammer Rhythm
12: Armor Specialization (plate)
Retrain Improved Initiative -> Marked Scourge
14: Blood Thirst
16: Improved Second Wind
18: Reckless Attacker
20: Defensive Resilience
21: Epic Recovery
Retrain Defensive Resilience -> Bludgeon Mastery
22: Invigorating Exploit (Anvil of Doom)
24: Martial Mastery
26: Triumphant Attack
28: Epic Resurgence
30: Rattling Exploit (Anvil of Doom)


At-Will Powers
1: Crushing Surge, Brash Strike (retrain to Tide of Iron at 16th)

Encounter Powers
1: Distracting Spate
3: Crushing Blow
7: Griffon's Wrath
11: Frontline Surge
13: Anvil of Doom [replace: Distracting Spate]
17: Crumpling Slam [replace: Griffon's Wrath]
23: Skullcrusher [replace: Crushing Blow]
27: NO CHANGE, if _must_ Adamantine Strike

Daily Powers
1: Knee Breaker
5: Rain of Steel
9: Jackal Strike
15: Unyielding Avalanche [replace: Knee Breaker]
19: Relentless Assailant [replace: Jackal Strike]
20: Indomitable Strength
25: Reaper's Stance [replace: Relentless Assailant]
29: Force the Battle [replace: Rain of Steel]

Utility Powers
2: Boundless Endurance
6: Unbreakable
10: Defensive Resurgence
12: Inexorable Shift
16: Iron Warrior
22: No Surrender
26: Divine Regeneration

Magic Items next...