D&D 4E Monte Cook on licensing (and 4E in general?)

[Maggan]

Anything less is a failure for them. If even 10% of the current base does not convert and is not replaced by "new gamers" this is a failure for Hasbro even if 90% is still millions of books.

I don't believe for a minute that WotC are gambling on an above 90% retention of players through this edition shift. It won't happen, and not just because there's a new edition, but because the majority of players of D&D aren't lifetime D&D:ers.

They play it for a while, change interests, start doing other things, buy a house, get kids, or a gazillion other things, and drop out of playing D&D.

So I think that it is guaranteed that at least 10%, and in my mind closer to 25% of the current batch of D&D players will not come along to the fourth edition, mainly because they have or are about to drop gaming as a hobby anyways.

It's not a low retention that's gonna kill 4e, it's low recruitment numbers. If that happens, then WotC has a problem. Sure, a high retention number will help immensely, and they are hoping for lots and lots of players to come along. But not 90%. And certainly not on day 1. It's a gradual process.

At least that's what I think seems likely.

/M

 

[jeffhartsell]

#47 on Amazon

Not sure how many units being #47 on Amazon.com means, but for pre-sales, that seems like an impressive ranking for a fantasy RPG.

 

[Ranger REG]

I've been following the GSL thread ( http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=224083&page=9 )- it seems that the new model will prevent companies from publishing both 3.X and 4Ed materials- this could possibly be applied to 3.X/D20 derived games such as AU/AE, Midnight, Spycraft, True20 and M&M.

While this makes good business sense, I have to say that if the noncompete clause does apply to 3.X/D20 derived games, that it could lead to a net loss for gaming as a hobby.

Waiting to see how this all shakes out.

I think that would be a STOOPID business move on WotC's part if they wish to shut down non-d20-labeled OGL products.

 

[Serendipity]

Are we at the stage where we predict whether 4E will die in flames or cure cancer? Ah, cool, I like this part.

My omen: I saw FOUR pigeons fly over my car this morning as I was smoking a cigarette and getting ready for work. Only ONE pooped on it, as far as I can tell. I think that the four pigeons must represent 4th edition and the one poop bomb must represent the big mistake I see WotC as having made so far.

I just can't figure out what the Hell my car represents. If I can figure that out, I'll know more. I mean, did 4E take a crap on me, the consumer? Or is my car the COMPETITION? Did it take a crap on the competition? Or maybe my car represents MMORPGs and we're looking at some online players returning to the fold. I'm just not sure at this point.

If someone knows, though, please let me know because I really, really want to know who 4E pooped on so I can decide if I should be offended.

Thank you so much for absolutely all of that. I'd been meaning to sort through the entrails of a large blue a**ed baboon this evening but now I don't have to.

Your wit sir, it is awesome. *G*

 

[AZRogue]

Thank you so much for absolutely all of that. I'd been meaning to sort through the entrails of a large blue a**ed baboon this evening but now I don't have to.

Your wit sir, it is awesome. *G*

Thank you. I also read tea leaves, but only when you lay them out to make letters.

 

[Dedekind]

I'm not sure if I have ever seen any real numbers on D&D for the 3E release. Or, for that matter, on any D&D product ever. I haven't seen anything solid on sales at all.

The closest I ever got was that I spoke with one of the Marketing guys at GenCon. I knew he wouldn't give specific information, so I asked "What has surprised you by not selling as well as you believed it would?" His answer was the Fantastic Locations series. As a result, me and my buddy bought a few and thought they were just OK.

So, I am soliciting hard information--not speculation--about sales of D&D products for the past 10 years.

 

[Dedekind]

So, I solicited information. I thought I would contribute what I have found. From Hasbro's annual report:

In addition, North American operating profit included increased investment spending in an online initiative of the Company’s Wizards of the Coast operation.

Well... duh.

Also, I found this fact, too, from the 10-K. Revenue from the Games and Puzzles categories was $1.3 billion. (This includes WotC.) It also states in a foot note that no one division contributes more than 10% of the total revenue. So, WotC, at most, has $130 million in sales. Now, WotC includes multiple divisions, not the least of which is Magic. I imagine their video games goes under this, too? If we assume 1/4 of WotC's revenue is from D&D products, that would be about $40 million in 2007.

Now, in 2000, the revenue from the Games category was $2.1 billion. If we assume 10% and 25% again, that would put WotC's revenue at around $50 million. So, 2007 revenue was below 2000 revenue, the year 3e came out.