With the GSL not being in their hands a couple of months ago, those designers are looking at possibly not having 4Ed products available in 2008 at all.
Anyone besides Paizo and Green Ronin guys?
I think you misunderstand me- I'm not saying that the designers are electing not to go with 4Ed in favor of their own thing, I'm saying that because of the delay in the GSL, they may not have enough lead time to produce quality products for 2008 release.
IOW, the delay is taking the choice out of their hands.
Furthermore, if those designers have bills to pay, they may be forced to produce products for non-4Ed games in 2008 just to stay afloat.
Do you really think M&M, True20 or Pathfindering can really compete with D&D, or even have any influence at all on 4E's success?
Yes.
As I pointed out in another thread, 4Ed runs the risk of being the RPG equivalent of New Coke (aka Coke II). Here's why:
Despite having the most powerful name in the market, the new edition has features and omissions that risk splitting the fanbase. How deep and profound a split, only time and the free market will tell.
The game its slated to replace has many ardent supporters. It also has many popular variants in existence and some more coming on line as we speak. Those variants- "substitutes" in econ-speak- are in the hands of good companies with top-flight designers on board.
One of the great strengths of 3.X was the OGL. That toolbox let a huge number of companies produce their own takes on the game...but most still required WotC's Core 3 (or a portion thereof) to work- that boosted sales. 3.X and related games were everywhere. The mis-timing of the GSL release will drive freelancers to design for products they have in hand, namely 3.X and the above-mentioned substitutes. It will also delay or even prevent other companies from doing 4Ed versions of their own products.
Another problem with the delay in the GSL is a loss of goodwill. Many of the designers in the industry know each other, especially those involved in the D20 movement. They'll have to decide whether the delay was unintentional and unavoidable, or if it was a marketing ploy (most likely under orders from higher-ups in Hasbro). If consensus is the latter, 3rd party 4Ed products could be as rare as California Condors.
To put it a different way, a videogame console depends upon what games it will actually play- consoles that only have a few games soon find themselves edged out of the market. If 3rd party publishers continue to support 3.X/True20/M&M/etcRPG, 4Ed could find itself marginalized and fighting for space on the bookshelves WotC's OGL helped fill.
Again, only time will tell. 4Ed could prove to be the baddest Mace Windu in the house...or Jar-Jar Binks.