D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[mamba]

If this qualifies, I don't see why not.

what ‘sport’ is that?

 

[mamba]

Right. But I don't think you realize how utterly mind-blowing that is, to "sustain the already existing momentum".

Games have momentum like a pile of bricks. Unless it's obscure (which, among TTRPGs, D&D is by far the least qualified), the sales peak of a new game is heavily front-loaded

Covid came after what, 6 years of sustained growth? 5e never was front-loaded. That it helped in the 7th year, fine, not even sure it would otherwise have seen a dip though

Whatever sustaining of "already existing momentum" D&D saw over the past decade was staggering and unprecedented in its history, and well beyond what can be chalked up to Hasbro being a savvy company.

not really, no one has offered any better explanation at least. All the supposed reasons (CR, ST, Covid) do not stand up to data. They helped, sure, but they were just a small bump on what was already a growing trendline

 

[Oofta]

what ‘sport’ is that?

Break dancing as performed at the Olympics by an Australian.

 

[mamba]

Break dancing as performed at the Olympics by an Australian.

either they caught a bad moment, or I just live in the wrong country to qualify

 

[FrogReaver]

we only really have all books, but I consider that a measure of PHBs as well.

Can you point me to that data? I didn’t think it existed.

People do not suddenly buy a lot more adventures if there are not also a lot more players

this seems dubious. One could buy the phb once and then every adventure that comes out. That doesn’t indicate more players of itself despite totaling a lot more book sales than the phb.

that is the conclusion of the increased sales

Not a logical one of itself unless we are talking PHBs only.

how many players were there back then, how many are there now?

We don’t know.

I’d say it is at least double the player base now, and that is very conservative, of 4e, 3e and PF1 combined then vs 5e today. 4e sold maybe 10% of the PHBs 5e has sold…

How do you know this? I believe 4e sold less phbs than 5e, but I don’t think we have the data to quantify that.

Then there’s also the inflow outflow problem. People do tend to leave dnd eventually, meaning phb lifetime sales isn’t a great indicator of overall player base at any given moment in time.

 

[mamba]

Can you point me to that data? I didn’t think it existed.

we have sales, see the quarterly reports, should not have said all books as it contains digital as well and you probably assumed print

this seems dubious. One could buy the phb once and then every adventure that comes out. That doesn’t indicate more players of itself despite totaling a lot more book sales than the phb.

one could, barely anyone does, and unless your player base increases or your release frequency does that would mean sales stay flat, so I am comfortable ruling this case out

Not a logical one of itself unless we are talking PHBs only.

still logical, see above

We don’t know.

if you want an exact number, no, but ballpark is not that hard to arrive at

How do you know this? I believe 4e sold less phbs than 5e, but I don’t think we have the data to quantify that.

3e sold around 700k, 4e sold less, 5e sold around 6M. Ben Riggs, Ben Riggs and Alphastream respectively

Then there’s also the inflow outflow problem. People do tend to leave dnd eventually, meaning phb lifetime sales isn’t a great indicator of overall player base at any given moment in time.

agreed, that is why I used a conservative number, but that might work against 4e and in favor of 5e just as well.

 

[DarkCrisis]

either they caught a bad moment, or I just live in the wrong country to qualify

It was all bad.

Apparently she realized she couldn't outperform the other breakdancers so tried a more interpretive dance thing which bombed and she got 0 points.

 

[FrogReaver]

we have sales, see the quarterly reports, should not have said all books as it contains digital as well and you probably assumed print

Interesting since Hasbro financial statements don’t break out d&d sales.

 

[mamba]

Interesting since Hasbro financial statements don’t break out d&d sales.

they kinda do, you have to look a little closer though, they might even spell out the growth explicitly

 

[Dire Bare]

I'm pretty sure WotC/Hasbro isn't expecting sales of the 2024 rules to seriously juice short-term profits. That isn't the point. The new rules are intended to help the long-term health of the game.

Which, is something a lot of capitalists don't seem to get.