Those above anecdotes are vital to the discussion because if you have owners and other people in the hobby recommending one over the other, I think that has a large effect on market share. Now granted, just because one poster says their FLGSs are leaning toward Pathfinder that does not mean all of them are. But the more people post about what is happening at their FLGSs, the more we all understand what is going on. I think all of us in this hobby have a vested interest in how this GSL v. OGL thing plays out, because it will shape the future of our hobby in the long term.
That's what I'm getting at. The four (actually, five) stores I'm referencing supporting one vs. the other does not mean that it's that way with all stores.....nor does it mean that 4E isn't selling there. At least in those stores, the annecdotal accounts seem to indicate that uptake of the game isn't as strong as the owners expected. They've commented on how split their customers are on the issue, and in some of their cases, the owners and the regulars aren't even fans of the new game. At least at the places I've been to, Paizo products are getting equal shelf space with 4E....they're not a little shelf at the back.
Does it mean anything empirical? No....I stated that from the beginning. Just pointing out the observations I've made, while visiting my local stores. Someone else might state that 3 stores they went to are full of customers raving about the new edition.
But if the owners, and the customers who spend lots of time coming back to the store are leaning towards one or the other, and a new customer comes in asking about what game to get into, the opinion he's going to hear isn't going to be "4E is the way to go". He's going to find he's got choice.....in the change from 1E to 2E, and 2E to 3E, I don't think that same type of choice was available. Yes, there were other gaming companies out there, and other game systems...but there was only one D&D. Now, there are a bunch of different flavours...if Pathfinder takes off, then you're going to have two main types. I don't *think* we've really had that kind of situation before.....the OGL opened up pandora's box, and I don't think anyone can really predict what's going to happen now. If WotC wants to sell the game, those are the kinds of people they need to win over.
Paizo's benchmark for success is likely much smaller than WotC's. They can probably afford to sell 10% of the copies that WotC does, and still be doing well.
Given that 4E came from, in large part, creativity and minds that were enabled and "blooded" in the 3E/d20/OGL market, I suspect that WotC might find that they have a smaller pool of talent to draw from in terms of designers than they did during the previous edition. And, IMO, that's really not good for anyone.
I'm curious though.....how much of the shrinking market in the last few years is due to appetite for RPGs drying up, and how much of it is actually because economic times are tightening overall? People spend their discretionary income far more carefully when times are tight, and RPGs are firmly in the "discretionary income" sector.
Banshee
