New Miniatures... Info?

[Jeff Wilder]

The photos from GoL, as well as the Goliath photo, are paint masters, not production models.

That may or may not be true, but it's irrelevant. The photos posted are what my GoL Commons look like. The implication that the quality of what we've seen of the upcoming set isn't significantly below GoL standards is really pretty silly.

 

[Jeff Wilder]

interest in the skirmish game was dying and sales of the minatures was going down with each new set.

First, interest in the skirmish game may have been dying, but it was definitely helped along in its demise by WotC.

Second, quality of the minis was way, way down. After a minor rebellion a few sets back, there was an uptick in quality for a single set, then another sharp decline (which, IMO, continued through the last set). You can call it chicken-and-the-egg if you like, but I collected multiple cases of the first 14 sets, and didn't bother to even collect all of the models in each set after that. And "lack of quality" was why.

It's not greed, it's reality.

Those two things are very far from mutually exclusive.

Personally, I think "greed" is a bad word. Someone else used "cynical," which I think is closer. I believe that WotC has become dishonest in its marketing over the last couple of years. WotC used to be the White Knight of gaming, so the change, while arguably inevitable, makes me a little sad.

 

[CharlesRyan]

By doing some market research on the secondary market, WoTC could predict what would be great sellers and what wouldn't. [. . .]

In this modern era, where it's very easy to find out what your customers want, this whole, "We have to do it this way" is putting the cart in front of the horse because it's still not listening to the customer.

You seem to be making two points here:

1. It's easy to figure out which items will sell better than others (using modern market-research techniques)
2. WotC has some sort of agenda other than giving their customers what they want

I don't grant either premise. The vagaries of what makes one item "click" with the public while another falls flat are exceptionally complex, especially when dealing with aesthetic issues. Besides, even if market research could overcome sales inefficiency, it isn't free. You're reducing one cost by adding another. Merric's law is upheld.

As for the second point--well, I don't really know how to address it. WotC has struggled with Merric's law just like everyone else; if they haven't delivered exactly what the public wants in one regard, it's only because they're trying to deliver in some other regard. I don't think there's anything more sinister than that!

 

[JoeGKushner]

So are you implying that no market research is being done on the minis? Are they just going to randomly start making minis then? "Here's one in the shape of poo. We hope you like it. We'd have done some research but that would have lead us to charge you more for it." ?

 

[Sammael]

You seem to be making two points here:

1. It's easy to figure out which items will sell better than others (using modern market-research techniques)
2. WotC has some sort of agenda other than giving their customers what they want

I don't grant either premise. The vagaries of what makes one item "click" with the public while another falls flat are exceptionally complex, especially when dealing with aesthetic issues. Besides, even if market research could overcome sales inefficiency, it isn't free. You're reducing one cost by adding another. Merric's law is upheld.

As for the second point--well, I don't really know how to address it. WotC has struggled with Merric's law just like everyone else; if they haven't delivered exactly what the public wants in one regard, it's only because they're trying to deliver in some other regard. I don't think there's anything more sinister than that!

Charles,

While it's certainly not "easy" to figure out which items will sell, there is certainly a way to do it: pick a sample population of DDM buyers and non-buyers, get them to sign NDAs, show concept art to them and ask them to evaluate the minis for (1) desirability (2) aesthetic quality (3) price they would be willing to pay.

This way, you would have a good heads up regarding the potential best-sellers and potential flops.

Of course, for this research to be effective, sculpt and paint quality would have to follow the concept art quality. For some reason, this is often not the case with DDM.

Before WotC canned Skirmish, they had another way of increasing mini desirability: good Skirmish stats. If they're on the fence about popularity of a certain mini, all they had to do is make sure Skirmishers would want it in large quantities.

WotC certainly does have an agenda to push certain types of minis (and creatures) down our throats. Usually, they are somebody's pet creatures (like the Dragonspawn), and that person wants them to gain "traction." This simply doesn't work.

There is a second agenda, which is to make highly desirable creatures (Dragonborn in 4E) rare, so people have to buy lots of boosters to get them. But this is typical for randomized collectable games, so I have no problem with it.

 

[Nebulous]

Charles,

While it's certainly not "easy" to figure out which items will sell, there is certainly a way to do it: pick a sample population of DDM buyers and non-buyers, get them to sign NDAs, show concept art to them and ask them to evaluate the minis for (1) desirability (2) aesthetic quality (3) price they would be willing to pay.

Yes, that would work, but what about simply polling WotC forums and Enworld? Throw up some concept art, whatever, i don't see any reason for it to be a big secret. If they want direct feedback, the internet can provide it in seconds. Over a few months i think there would be a workable base for what customers most want. As an experiement, if that doesn't work or the feedback is insufficient, or worse, the general populace is still displeased wih the end result, then scrap the idea.

 

[Sammael]

I very much doubt that WotC would want their competition to know which minis they'll release in the coming months.

No toy company anywhere would conduct such research publically.

 

[Jhaelen]

By doing some market research on the secondary market, WoTC could predict what would be great sellers and what wouldn't.

If only it would be that easy!

While you can find out via market research which minis have the potential to sell well, it's only one of many aspects that eventually decide on a mini's success.

Apart from that, I believe market research to be both unreliable and too slow for the required production processes:
Just look at the kind of cars that have been produced in the past two years and compare it to the current demands!

Anyway, back to minis:

Take for example the Aboleth mini: It's a mini that has been requested time and again and now that we finally get one, people exclaim 'phooey! It looks like a pokemon dolphin!'.

To sell well, everything about the mini must be good: the choice of mini, the sculpt, the paintjob, the colour scheme, the price, etc. This is also why they're creating design studies of a lot of minis that never make it to the customer. Finally, there are problems related to the production process (just think of the clear plastic minis that are generally more popular than the normal ones).

You cannot really plan for all this. Basically, you can only hope a mini is going to be a hit, even if market research indicates it _should_ be a top-seller!

 

[Nebulous]

I very much doubt that WotC would want their competition to know which minis they'll release in the coming months.

No toy company anywhere would conduct such research publically.

I admit to knowing nothing about business, but what competitors to WotC are releasing name-specific D&D monsters in a 40 set bundle? We already know what 40 monsters are in the upcoming set, and it won't be released until May. I'm not arguing, i just don't see a direct correlation between appealing to the consumers with their input and lost potential revenue. I know that Reaper was coming out with plastic minis, but for all i know that line is defunct.

Regardless, if secretive NDA is the way to go, then do it. Maybe Charles will give his thoughts on that.

 

[Dragon Snack]

But that Aboleth mini is pretty bad...

...what about simply polling WotC forums and Enworld?

Reaper has a "Minis You Would Like To See" thread on their boards (and they use it, lots of minis suggested there have been produced). In that thread, commoners/townsfolk are always one of the most requested miniatures. Reaper does put out Townsfolk packs every so often, but they have been very open about the fact that the sales of Townsfolk packs are consistently below average. Just because someone asks for something on a message board doesn't mean that lots of people will pony up the cash for it.

That said, I don't think market research is as hard as some people are making it out to be. A little thought would save us from things like Wrackspawns...