D&D 4E Non-WotC publishers - 4ed, settings, and $5,000

[Mercurius]

Given that the new OGL/GSL/DSL/Whatevathafuhitis hasn't officially come out yet--and we still have no idea who will or will not shell out the five grand to start publishing 4ed products this summer--this query is admittedly highly speculative (on this forum? No way...). I am curious if there is any sign of what non-WotC publishers are going to do with their default settings? Is White Wolf going to 4edize the Scarred Lands, or are they going to start with something fresh? Are we going to see 4ed versions of the Wilderlands, Thieves World, the "Freeport world"? And so on.

My thinking is that no one is going to pay the $5,000 and instead wait until next year. Well, maybe one or two companies--White Wolf, for example, is the most obvious choice. But they also have other game lines to make money off of, so I guess the d20-only publishers might be more impatient and inclined to waste spend their money.

I've got two general questions I'd like to hear opinions of the illustrious members of this board on:

First, if you were a 3rd-party d20 publisher (or if you are, for that matter), does it make more sense to: A) Spend the $5,000 and get stuff out there this summer (and perhaps make more money because of the thinned field), or B) Save the dough and flood the market January 1st (or whenever the gate-opening would be), and instead publish stuff that is 3x ed but sneakily "4th edition compatible"?

Secondly, does it make sense to 4edize an already published setting (like WotC is doing with the Forgotten Realms) or start over with a new setting? And if you are going to 4edize, do you do it drastically (like FR) or just more along the lines of rules updates and a newer-and-prettier book?

 

[Kzach]

I'm neither a publisher nor a writer so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

Personally, if I was either, I wouldn't bother with the $5,000 pre-release rules for two main reasons.

1) Sure you'll get the jump on everyone, but the rules you get aren't final until publication anyway, so you'll more than likely end up with higher development costs due to having to constantly change your product to fit whatever changes are made during 4E development.

2) People are going to be broke or at least not willing to spend money on new 4E material until at least a month or two after official release. Everyone will be getting used to learning new rules, conversions of campaigns, getting new players on board, etc. Even a month after I think is probably unrealistic and it will be at least two months before people even start looking at products outside of the core three rulebooks, no matter how good the product is.

 

[Henry]

1) Sure you'll get the jump on everyone, but the rules you get aren't final until publication anyway, so you'll more than likely end up with higher development costs due to having to constantly change your product to fit whatever changes are made during 4E development.

2) People are going to be broke or at least not willing to spend money on new 4E material until at least a month or two after official release. Everyone will be getting used to learning new rules, conversions of campaigns, getting new players on board, etc. Even a month after I think is probably unrealistic and it will be at least two months before people even start looking at products outside of the core three rulebooks, no matter how good the product is.

My own take on those two issues:

1) If I understood the official statement correctly, the publishers who do buy in will receive correct copies of the rules; likely the amount of stuff that would change will likely be in the 1% range, especially since typesetting is either happening or done by now.

2) Don't underestimate the buying power of fans dying for new material upon release of a new D&D. One month after release, assuming the rules are good, you'll probably see people cruising for products to go with this edition, same as what happened in 2000 and 2003.

As to whether the early adopters will find it worth it? I have no idea. I think whoever buys it WILL sell stuff, but only time will tell if it was worth it in the end.

 

[Glyfair]

My thinking is that no one is going to pay the $5,000 and instead wait until next year.

Wolfgang Baur's Open Design already has the money for the project. The only issue right now is if they see the license and decide it isn't worthwhile. The plan is to do a project (likely on his World of Zobeck) for GenCon.

Of course, WotC has decided to take it back to the drawing board for revisions. So, what they decide to do in their legal and design laboratory might have some affect as well.

Necromancer Games is definitely gung-ho, but the same issues are floating around as well. In fact, I think any respectable company will not be any further than 90% for it as this point, waiting to see the details until they make a commitment.

 

[Darrin Drader]

If I were still in the running a publishing company business, I would not invest the $5K on to get my stuff out there sooner. I think there will probably be tons of people jumping onto the 4E bandwagon, so it isn't a question of whether or not it will be popular, but more a question of whether or not it would be worth the investment. Here are a fwe things to consider.

First off, when 3E was released there were a ton of companies jumping into D20. Some already existed, many were new. The one thing that the vast majority of the original companies embracing the D20 license found was that the business was very difficult to sustain over the long term. It's clearly not impossible, as there are companies like Green Ronin, Mongoose, and Necromancer who somehow managed to survive the lean years, but I feel that most of the people who were inclined to take this sort of risk have already done so. Notice that the truly successful companies have diversified so that they no longer rely solely on D20/OGL products (GR has True20, M&M, and Freeport, Mongoose has Runequest, Babylon 5, Conan, etc.) I think a lot of companies learned that following WotC's lead can lead to short term gains while people are looking for new material to go with the game, but is that worth $5K? I think it's likely that whatever extra they make by being first would disappear into the hefty fee they paid in order to do so.

Second, the new rules will be out in what? Another four months? If you're going to have new material out when 4E launches, that can mean only two things: One - you had a WotC 4E designer working on stuff for you on the side, or Two - the rush to publish will lead to a rushed job on a product, and that usually translated into substandard quality in the writing and the editing. The fans will notice this and be less likely to buy your next release, no matter how much better it really is.

If I were still in the publishing biz, I would be taking advantage of Green Ronin dropping the licensing fee for True20 compatible products and creating new books for release up through the release of 4E. I would of course buy into the new rules when they are released to the public, take the time to make sure that people have a firm understanding of the rules, and then start creating compatible products at that point to be released when the license is open to the public. That way I'd be able to concentrate more on quality. Assuming that I had a campaign setting with some sort of a following, I would of course update that to the new edition first, along with something new, like a rule book or adventure. In taking that approach I might miss the initial buying rush, but I would be able to tap into the existing fan base of my IP as well as hopefully attract some new people. I think the market for 3rd party stuff will remain pretty hot for at least two to three years like it was with 3E.

 

[Mercurius]

Good thoughts, all. Anyone want to speculate about the second point, i.e. the settings?

We know Wizards is "drastically" altering the Forgotten Realms, but what about Eberron? My guess is that THEY don't even know yet and are going to play wait-and-see with FR, to see how people like the 4ed version.

 

[delericho]

Firstly, one should only spend the $5,000 for early access if one believes one can recoup that money over the six month window of opportunity. That basically means you need to already have a significant print presence, and at least one successful line. As such, it makes some sense for Paizo, Necromancer, Goodman, and maybe Mongoose. For anyone who is PDF-only, anyone new, and any very minor publishers, it's not a good idea. Better to wait, and release next year.

(Additionally, I will be very surprised if one cannot publish 4e-compatible materials under the existing OGL using some careful wording on compatibility statements and the like. I'm not an IP lawyer, but if I were in the 'not quite big enough to make it worthwhile' category, I would be tempted to explore that option.)

(Additional additional: it may well be that the legalities of the situation are irrelevant, though. The OGL has never been tested in court, and the only players who might be large enough to take on WotC will probably pay the $5,000 anyway. So, if one were to publish a 4e-compatible OGL product, one might be forced to back down if WotC were to press the issue, even if the law is on one's side.)

For the second question, I think we'll see a mix of the three options. We'll no doubt see a bunch of new settings (for example, I expect Paizo's Pathfinder setting to be, or very quickly become, 4e).

Any existing setting that is now 'dead' will probably stay that way. I would be very surprised to see a "Scarred Lands 4e" for example, because although there are a number of rabid fans out there, there obviously wasn't the demand for the setting prior to this point, so there probably wouldn't be sufficient demand now.

Existing 'live' settings may or may not convert. Many of those that do will simply publish a new 4e-ised core book, with no major setting changes, and move on. Others will do a WSE (World Shaking Event) and proceed from an essentially blank slate. To a large extent, the option taken will depend on how tied the setting is to 3e rule elements, and also the presence of metaplot in the setting (I think the more metaplot, the greater the chance of a WSE).

In all seriousness, though, I doubt we'll see many 4e settings, be they new or converted. The "Points of Light" paradigm seems to have grabbed hold of people quite thoroughly, and that cuts out a lot of the need for a setting - if you're living in an isolated town, it really doesn't matter what the rest of the world looks like, and indeed it might be better if it not be fleshed out until the PCs get there.

 

[delericho]

Wolfgang Baur's Open Design already has the money for the project.

My gut feeling is that this is very much a special case. Because Baur collects the money for the projects up-front, he doesn't need to worry about whether he'll recoup the $5,000 over the six months or not - he already has his costs covered.

To be honest, I'm surprised more designers haven't adopted the patron model for their works. I guess it may well be that in order to make it work you need a certain amount of name recognition, and most of the designers with that level of recognition are either working for WotC, White Wolf or Mongoose already, or are out of the RPG design business entirely.

 

[Betote]

I don't think many companies are going the 5.000$ way, mainly because it's late February and the GSL isn't ready yet, so, if they're professionals as I think most people in the 'big OGL companies' are, they'd prefer to wait until January rather than publishing a rushed product.

For example, I think the 3rd Pathfinder campaign is most probably going to be 3.5, and we wouldn't see a 4E Tome of Horrors (if the GSL supports this kind of product) until September-October as early.

 

[catsclaw227]

Any existing setting that is now 'dead' will probably stay that way. I would be very surprised to see a "Scarred Lands 4e" for example, because although there are a number of rabid fans out there, there obviously wasn't the demand for the setting prior to this point, so there probably wouldn't be sufficient demand now.

Of any of the 3e settings, Scarred Lands is just as PoL as any other, and it DID survive with quite a few setting books published in the 3e heyday. I am not sure if it will survive with a COMPLETE overhaul, but a 4e compatibility guide and some supplements for a Scarred Lands 4e could work.

The Wilderlands license has gone C&C for now, and I don't know if Necromancer Games has the rights to produce additional Wilderlands products or not.

Notably, though, Aereth (sp?) from Goodman Games is very PoL and with some luck has already been set up for 4e quite nicely. I would be shocked if we didn't see some 4e setting stuff from them either.

As for Arcanis? Who knows.... Living Arcanis is doing well with 3.5 rules, and I that changing that whole thing would be a massive undertaking, likely not worth the effort.