Elric said:
So, on the defensive end, in return for 18% extra HP, the HOgre gets hit 10% less. If the orc is hit 60% of the time (estimate- seems pretty reasonable), the HOgre is hit 50% of the time. This puts the number of strikes to drop the HOgre at 20% extra, so the half-ogre is actually very slightly ahead on defense. The half-ogre has 1 point worse on his reflex save, but is immune the person spells, making his will save less important.
Your mathematics are awful. Really, really awful
Assuming D is the average amount of damage per swing, and H is the percentage chance to hit the orc. S is the number of swings, and is the number we want to find out for both the ogre and the orc.
S(orc)*D*H=39
S(ogre)*D*(H+10%)=33
If we want to find out how these compare with one another, then we can divide one by the other
Code:
S(Orc)*(H+10%) 39
---------------------------- = -----
S(Ogre)*H 33
Now - we need to know a number for H to resolve this. If we assume 50%, then
Code:
S(orc)*60% 39
-------------- = ----
S(ogre)*50% 33
S(orc) 39*50% 19.5
-------- = --------- = -----
S(ogre) 33*60% 19.8
Or in other words, the ogre comes out very marginally ahead. He's got a 2% lead on the orc.
But there’s a huge variable missing in all of this- the Half-Ogre has reach! He’s a demon with cleave, a demon with combat reflexes and a demon when you actually put him in a party. I’m comparing him to a no-daylight-penalty Orc, which is far and away the best ECL 0 fighter type race.
Reach isn't necessarily all it's cracked up to be.
Fully 1/3rd of the monsters in the MM have reach 10ft + naturally.
More of them have the capability to use a ranged or reach weapon, tumble, sneak etc, all of which negate reach.
If you constantly fight medium or small sized corporeal opponents who make no effort to ambush you, take advantage or restricted terrain or the like, large size is a big benefit.
If you fight against ranged troops or in restricted terrain, large size is a major disadvantage.
That’s a 135% damage ration for the HOgre. This is level 4, against an Orc with no daylight penalties, a race that is almost certainly too strong for ECL +0 (not that it’s anything but awful at ECL +1). With the exception of the level 6 characters, things only get worse for the orc from here.
Orcs are hardly a strong ECL 0, even ones without daylight penalties.