D&D 4E Paizo and 4e - Vive le Revolution!

[Charwoman Gene]

This is the Internet. We could get a fierce and violent debate over whether chocolate is yummy.

I hate chocolate.

 

[Minicol]

2) THERE IS A VIABLE 3X MARKET AFTER 4e IS RELEASED.

Split? If only 2/3rds of 3x players switch to 4e, Wotc will have a splitting headache, the kind that gets people fired because there new edition just underperformed.

Yes.

There is probably a market, though a lot smaller than the full current market. Getting that market together is probably quite a challenge OTOH.

I know I would definitely buy 3.5 indie products after 4e is released, but would the others follow ?

 

[Minicol]

I'm seeing a lot of completely useless results from self-selecting groups comprising terrible sample sizes and answering questions that may or may not bias the responses. I vote in polls here, but all they tell us is how the few people who vote in ENWorld polls on subjects they are personally interested in feel about the subject. The error term on any conclusion you draw would be big enough to have its own gravity well, with unwary statisticians trapped in orbit around it.

How is this not true with any poll ?

After all, if someone stops me in the street to ask about my next political vote, I won't be necessarily inclined to bother

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

I keep seeing this often.

For the record the lowest statistical law is valid with a sampling of around 50 people. then the precision only gets better.

So Yes, these polls are probably valid ... as a trend. No stat is ever the full truth.

It depends entirely on whether your sample is representative of the larger population. If you're asking a question about what to do about fuel prices, and you only poll SUV owners, you're going to get a different result than if you poll a randomized sample. The people who answer ENWorld polls in the 4th edition board do not constitute a randomized sample.

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

How is this not true with any poll ?

After all, if someone stops me in the street to ask about my next political vote, I won't be necessarily inclined to bother

Which is why polls are not reliable sources of information. Read the fine print at the bottom of a published political poll to see how often the statisticians expect their own poll to be completely out of touch with reality. There are lots of times throughout the last 20 years in which a political candidate gets a surprise victory. Why was it a surprise? Because the pollsters failed to predict it.

Also, having a very large sample size helps to remedy the tendency for respondents to self-select. Political polls usually have a minimum sample size somewhere around 500. Still, if you ask 500 lawyers their opinion on the price of legal-sized paper, you'll get a different answer than if you ask 500 random people. Perhaps a very accurate portrayal of the opinions of lawyers, but not an accurate portrayal of the larger population.

 

[Rechan]

I'm seeing a lot of completely useless results from self-selecting groups comprising terrible sample sizes and answering questions that may or may not bias the responses. I vote in polls here, but all they tell us is how the few people who vote in ENWorld polls on subjects they are personally interested in feel about the subject. The error term on any conclusion you draw would be big enough to have its own gravity well, with unwary statisticians trapped in orbit around it.

The bolded section, Dr, is all I wanted to illustrate when I referenced said polls.

As I said before. We cannot make inferences about the larger D&D Playing Community based on Enworld, for obvious reasons. We can, however, make inferences on ENWorld posters who come to the 4e boards and answer the polls.

My point by quoting the polls conducted on this forum is that the people on this forum are, as a majority, positive about 4e. Despite the vocal displeasure in many of these threads, those who hold the negative opinions are in the minority.

Fear not, Doc. I took stats and research methods too.

 

[catsclaw227]

Just because it's not broken to the point of being unplayable doesn't mean that there aren't some serious issues that need fixing, and which justify enough changes to warrant a new edition. Just because something is good doesn't mean it can't be significantly better.

I agree. It is interesting how this argument is so strong for a new edition, that very few of the 4e dissenters can't/won't seem address this.

Certainly, Paizo's adventure paths are well-loved. And their data says that participation in them drops off at higher levels once the sweet spot is exhausted. The claim being made is that you could rewrite those adventures in 4E and make them as fun to play, and to run, at 20th level as at 7th.

(Also, I think a lot of the reason that Paizo's adventures are well-loved is due to the strong writing, independent of the game mechanics. They, like the other companies mentioned, just know how to provide quality product, and could probably do it in any game system, broken or not.)

Again, I agree. It is interesting how this argument is so strong for why Paizo does 3.xe so well (and that they would likely succeed in the same way with 4e), that very few of the 4e dissenters can't/won't seem address this.

We've been playing 3.5 long enough to know where the weak spots are, and 4E is, according to the developers, being designed not to patch those weak spots, but to provide a structure that eliminates them completely. I don't see why the existence of 3.5, which is a totally playable system, and one I plan to continue playing indefinitely, means that D&D can't be improved. Seriously, where are you getting that idea from?

I agree. It is interesting how this argument is so strong for a new edition, that very few of the 4e dissenters can't/won't seem address this.

 

[Dragon Snack]

Because we don't trust WotC to do it right. It looks like a bunch of changes (some of them to things that only seemed to become "issues" recently) with very light playtesting (appearances may be deceiving, but perception is reality - for now at least).

D&D 3.x can be improved, but wholesale change isn't necessarily the best way to improve it...

As for a 3.Paizo, I would like to see what they would come up with. But my jury would still be out on that too...

 

[GVDammerung]

O RLY?

How many new players do you think 4e will pick up?

Because I'm willing to bet that a third or fourth of the 2e players didn't switch to 3e, and 3e survived.

IMO, 4e will not bring to the game nearly the number of new/not-currently-active gamers that 3.0 did. 3.0 was "the perfect storm" of a new edition launch. 4.0 is not. Anecdotally, I was there for both "BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS." 3.0 was greeted with excitement and enthusiasm. 4.0 was greeted this past Gencon with a big "meh" and a scattering of boos. They only people really hyped worked for Wotc. For 3.0 there was a ground swell. For 4.0, there is a sharp division of opinion. If 1/3rd of 3X gamers don't switch to 4e, 4e will "fail" in terms of expectations and perhaps sustainable numbers for Hasbro's purposes.

 

[Stone Dog]

I hate chocolate.

Why do you hate chocolate? Don't you know chocolate is the same as freedom?