I agree that people want that type of product and I expect that form of service to grow over the years.
As to how much it reflects the base, who knows?
I know that there have been multiple sales comparisons between PF and 4E before and a common refrain has been that it is meaningless because DDI has replaced books for the bulk of the 4E fan base. I'm not saying that is true, I'm saying it has been claimed by 4E fans repeatedly.
I presumed that was implicit in your point. If it wasn't, then I retract that part of the rebuttal.
I still see that all signs point toward a significant loss of market share on the D&D brand side. DDI is ultimately just the silver lining. And in this thread it seems to be more a diversion than anything.
I assume that there has been a significant loss of market share, but for WotC "significant" might mean 5%. No one knows the true number, but based on word-of-mouth, internet exposure, and core sales, I believe that 4e still controls a vast majority of the market (but obviously not as much as WotC would like).
Pathfinder book sales are surpassing 4e sales based on what's selling right now. Distributors say they are moving more Pathfinder products currently, as in single month figures for the most recent months, not total sales across the life of both systems. This is because of the saturation of the 4e market, which Pathfinder obviously hasn't experienced yet, and a lack of new offerings from 4e's publisher.
My argument is that WotC has slowed publishing physical books, because late-system supplements don't sell nearly as well as the core and early supplements, but this time they can move their efforts to a very profitable DDI. While DDI might only represent a small portion of the 4e player base*, it's working out better than late-system economics typically work out for them.
They are still interested in releasing 5th edition, because the start of new editions are where are the real money is, but I believe DDI is making the transition much easier for them economically. For this reason, it will most likely be several years before we see 5th, though they've obviously started working on it already.
*My best WAG is that 1-in-5 regular play groups have a DDI account or use DDI, based on the stores I've been to and the people I've talked with. And that's a pretty high guess for the amount of DDI exposure. In addition, each account probably represents on average 5 players (9 people use our account, but I can see cases where every person in a group has their own account, thus the average). My completely wild guess for the (somewhat frequent play) 4e player base would be about 1,450,000 (on the low side) (58,000 x 5 x 5). At least 2,000,000 is probably a better guess.
In 2006, WotC estimated that
as many as 4 million people played
D&D regularly in the US (the largest market), thought that number has likely continued to decline.
Play D&D: Parents. D&D probably represented around 90% of all tabletop RPG groups in the past, though the number has obviously dipped lower recently.
I suspect that 4e represents at least half of the overall D&D market (versus Pathfinder and earlier editions, as measured by monthly players as opposed to current sales). I believe that 4e almost assuredly has the largest current player base out of every tabletop RPG.
