I think you're putting the horse behind the cart, so to speak.
IMHO, "Tumble to avoid AoOs" isn't "I wait for him to make an AoO against me, then I duck/dodge the blow". It's "I perform a sudden, unexpected somersault/cartwheel/whatever that gets me past my startled opponent before he can react". You make the Tumble check when you move, not when the enemy AoOs.
Note that this means, for example, that when Orc #1 can make only one AoO per round, and The Rogue successfully tumbles past him, Orc #1 still has his AoO available to whack at someone else who tries to move past him - he did not "use it and miss" vs The Rogue.
With Acrobatic Strike, you are using the "tumble past" rules to essentially "get behind" the opponent for a second - but since 3.5's "no facing" system doesn't allow figures to have a "behind", this is simulated with a bonus to hit.