PHB2 sold out!

[Glyfair]

So for years they have been giving the impression they had a market of 6 million D&D players that they were selling too. Now we know, for sure, they were no where close to selling to 6 million D&D players. They are only close to selling to maybe half a million. A far different impression now.

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I don't know where you got your impression, but the original data was from the big market analysis done by WotC before 3E was released. In the information released by Ryan Dancey, that number was specifically mentioned as including players who play older systems, and that many of them haven't made a significant D&D purchase in years.

 

[Maggan]

Fact: WOTC admits to selling only "a few hundred thousand copies of" their core books.

Fact addition: ... in the first year of the product cycle, for a product line with probably an 8 year life.

/M

 

[DracoSuave]

When D&D isn't a success, WoTC/Hasbro will sell it, like they did other properties that were not reaching their intended goals.

WoTC isn't looking for buyers for the D&D property, therefore it is reasonable to assume that it's not in bad shape.

If there are 6 million players, then it is not a sign of failure if they haven't sold 6 million books... it's a sign that the revenue stream from that profit can continue to flow as they have untapped market potential. If you are a player but haven't bought the book, then you are a potential buyer and might in the future.

Once you buy the book, however, barring physical destruction of that book you are no longer going to buy that book, which means you are no longer a revenue generator for that one book.

Once the number of buys gets closer to market saturation, then it's time to either start courting new customers, or... a new edition needs developed. Developing a new edition costs money, which means that it costs you money if too many buys happen too quickly. It's a balancing act. Too few buys means you don't generate profit now, too many buys means you don't generate profit in the future.

 

[Maggan]

When D&D isn't a success, WoTC/Hasbro will sell it, like they did other properties that were not reaching their intended goals.

I've been under the impression that WotC/Hasbro would rather shelve the IP in question until something can be done with it.

What properties have they sold off?

/M

 

[Kask]

The fact that the book sold out of its first print run in less than a month would seem to indicate that it sold better than management was expecting.

Nope. Having worked in publishing it means they didn't really know how fast it would move. That is disconnected from the goals set by corp management for the product line in general. Top management doesn't make print run decisions (unless it is a tiny company.)

 

[Kask]

Fact: WOTC claims there are 6 million D&D players world wide, for many years now.

Fact: WOTC admits to selling only "a few hundred thousand copies of" their core books.

Fact: WOTC has publicly claimed that 4E is out selling 3E.

All I know is that when I surveyed the ~90 people I know that play D&D on 3 different continents, only 10 replaced playing 3.x with 4.0. About 25 bought the 4.0 PHB, DMG, MM in some combo.

 

[D'karr]

All I know is that when I surveyed the ~90 people I know that play D&D on 3 different continents, only 10 replaced playing 3.x with 4.0. About 25 bought the 4.0 PHB, DMG, MM in some combo.

Oh, okay. Anecdotal evidence is all well and good? I run the local gamedays and I have numbers that show that in the past 10 months we've gone from about 25 people playing to over 70. We are growing at such a pace that we are expanding the gamedays to multiple locations on multiple dates, because we can't handle the overflow.

That is playing on a consistent basis, at least once a month, closer to twice a month, and all of those gamers are playing 4e.

With each game we have added more "new" people. And of those new people there is a significant number that had never played D&D before. In addition, we are adding younger players, 11+ to 22 year olds.

The whole group is an amalgam of players, so there are players that had never played before, those that never played 3.x, many that played 3.x and continue to play it in addition to 4e, and many that switched to 4e completely.

But the interesting number is not that we've added many new people. The interesting number is that we have great retention. These people keep coming back, month after month, and they are having a great time.

 

[Kask]

Oh, okay. Anecdotal evidence is all well and good?

Well, not really anecdotal. I did a formal survey to known customers. And yes, I know how to structure and perform surveys. Sample size isn't too bad considering size of cust base. My data covers 3 continents of players who don't know each other. Overall, my survey is a better sampling than any single game store regarding players converting to 4.0...

 

[Obryn]

Well, not really anecdotal. I did a formal survey to known customers. And yes, I know how to structure and perform surveys.

How were the survey recipients selected? "Known customers" of what?

What controls did you use for selection bias?

If you didn't control this, I would say, much like ENWorld polls, this was not a formal survey.

Sample size isn't too bad considering size of cust base. My data covers 3 continents of players who don't know each other. Overall, my survey is a better sampling than any single game store regarding players converting to 4.0...

While geographical distribution helps, I'd argue that neither is a scientific sampling unless you're making your methodology clear. I'd agree that 90 is a pretty adequate sample size - so long as the sampling was done properly, that is.

-O

 

[Kask]

How were the survey recipients selected? "Known customers" of what?

Umm, milk. What ARE you talking about? I already stated this.

What controls did you use for selection bias?

There was no self selection. It was a list of current players from groups that didn't know each other I've met over 15 years. Pretty random in location, age and other demographics... If you have better survey data I'd like to hear about it...