PHB2 sold out!

[D'karr]

Well, not really anecdotal. I did a formal survey

Well you can keep on believing your "formal survey." Me, I'm sticking with what is working on the ground. I don't have to do a survey to see that over the past 10 months we have more than doubled in size. The butts on the seats, seem to contradict your survey.

 

[Obryn]

Umm, milk. What ARE you talking about? I already stated this.

There was no self selection. It was a list of current players from groups that didn't know each other I've met over 15 years. Pretty random in location, age and other demographics...

"People I know" is not a statistically random sampling, even if they don't know each other. There's a good deal of inherent bias in a sampling like this. I'm wondering what experience you've had in structuring and performing surveys...

If you have better survey data I'd like to hear about it...

No, I don't, but I don't claim to. My point is that what you consider a survey is no more reliable than anecdotal data, due to problems in your methodology.

-O

 

[Kask]

There's a good deal of inherent bias in a sampling like this.

Please state the "bias" you see.

I'm wondering what experience you've had in structuring and performing surveys...

I've successfully run mktg for a very large multinational for 10+ years & 5 years of a large US company. How about you?

 

[malraux]

[

Please state the "bias" you see.

Your survey was limited to people you met personally in the past. That strongly biases your sample pool. Not getting this immediately casts doubt on you claim that you know anything about doing sampling.

 

[Obryn]

Please state the "bias" you see.

"People I know" is not a randomly selected subset of the population of "all D&D players." And therefore any extrapolation is statistically questionable.

I've successfully run mktg for a very large multinational for 10+ years & 5 years of a large US company. How about you?

In your work, would you consider a survey of people you personally know and (presumably) communicate with to be valid? I somehow doubt it.

If you're looking for credentials, I have a graduate degree in experimental psychology, and focused on statistics and methodology.

-O

 

[Kask]

"People I know" is not a randomly selected subset of the population of "all D&D players." And therefore any extrapolation is statistically questionable.

It is when I found them by random means and in random places.

So, what is your experience in marketing & surveying? I'll wait for you to answer this inexplicably, unanswered question...

 

[Ourph]

Nope. Having worked in publishing it means they didn't really know how fast it would move.

What about the above statement contradicts the idea that it moved faster than they expected.

"We don't know how fast PHB2 will move."
"Let's guess X and print X."
"OK."
"We ran out of books. I guess PHB2 is performing better than X."

Are you just arguing for the sake of arguing?

 

[sfield]

Real Numbers Analysis and the Book Industry

First off the lawsuit states core books. If you go to Wizards website and look at their product list almost every "Core" book is included with the exception of Forgotten Realms. However that being said:

Ingram is a book supplier that you can obtian sales numbers through. They have an automated system (615) 213-6803 and all you have to do is type in a ISBN number and it will give you the sales numbers for the books they have distributed for Last year and the current year.

I have read on other websites that if you multiply by a factor of 6 these numbers somewhat represent US sales. I don't know if that is true. There are some pay for service firms that will provide hard numbers as well.


In any case from the system:
The 4th Edition Core Gift Set
YTD: 123 2008: 2,200

The 4th Edition Players Hand Book
YTD: 197 2008: 5,785

The 4th Edition Deluxe Players Handbook
YTD: 1 2008: 25

Totalled: 8,331 copies of the Players Handbook have sold.
If we multiply that by 6 (See Above) that gives us a sales level of 49,986 units.

The Players Handbook II:
YTD: 1,440 2008: N/A

With the Multiplier factor we get: 8,640 units

To be on the best seller list I have also read that you can get on with sales at a minimum level of 5,000 weekly units. The fact that PHB2 is higher rated than the PHB on the New York times bestseller list means nothing. It is all based on how the competeting books are doing. I believe the print run for PHB2 is lower than PHB1.

If you look at the rest of the numbers you will see that their accessory products don't sell that well.

Take it for what it's worth but they are real numbers at least.

4th Edition Core Rulebook Gift Set
YTD: 123 2008: 2,200
Adventurer's Vault
YTD: 116 2008: 1,127
An Adventurer's Guide to Eberron: 0786948558
YTD: 8 2008: 88
D&D Dungeon Tiles VI: Fane of the Forgotten Gods 0786948000
YTD: 52 2008: 252
Draconomicon I:
YTD: 68 2008: 132
DU1 Halls of the Giant Kings Dungeon Tile 0786948736
YTD: 0 2008: 256
DU2 Streets of Shadow Dungeon Tiles 0786949791
YTD: 255 2008: 244
Dungeon Delve 0786951397
YTD: 362 2008: 0
Dungeon Master's Guide 0786948809
YTD: 82 2008: 1,440
Dungeon Master's Screen 0786949279
YTD: 180 2008: 485
Forgotten Realms Campaign Guide
YTD: 61 2008: 603
Forgotten Realms Player's Guide 0786949295
YTD: 151 2008: 1,666
H1 Keep on the Shadowfell 0786948507
YTD: 120 2008: 828
H2 Thunderspire Labrynth 0786948728
YTD: 11 2008: 326
H3 Pyramid of Shadows 078694935X
YTD: 36 2008: 238
Manual of the Planes
YTD: 309 2008: 519
Monster Manual 0786948523
YTD: 124 2008: 2,237
Open Grave 0786950692
YTD: 124 2008: 2237
P1 King of the Trollhaunt Warrens 0786949287
YTD: 15 2008: 137
P2 Demon Queen's Enclave 0786949775
YTD: 47 2008: 47
P3 Assault on Nightwyrm Fortress 0786950005
YTD: 18 2008: 0
Players Handbook
YTD: 197 2008: 5,785
Wizards Presnts: Worlds and Monsters 0786948027
YTD: 7 2008: 523
Players Handbook 2
YTD: 1,440 2008: N/A
Deluxe Players Handbook 0786950439
YTD: 1 2008: 25
Deluxe DM's Guide 0786950447
YTD: 0 2008: 19
Deluxe Monster Manual 0786950455
YTD: 1 2008: 14
3.5 Players Handbook: 0786928867
YTD: 0 2008: 426

 

[xechnao]

[

Your survey was limited to people you met personally in the past. That strongly biases your sample pool. Not getting this immediately casts doubt on you claim that you know anything about doing sampling.

No. His servey is limited to "a list of current players from groups that didn't know each other I've met over 15 years. Pretty random in location, age and other demographics..."

This is not a servey of the general population but a more focused group servey (for example "old timers" group or rather group of people that have played D&D in the past).

 

[malraux]

It is when I found them by random means and in random places.

So, does this mean you just called people out of the phonebook? After tossing a dart at a map to determine which town to go to? Or could there have been a biasing effect at how you found your subsample?