PHB2 sold out!

[Obryn]

As said elsewhere, they should be able to sell up to as many PHB2s as PHB1s. So, too, for the PHB3, etc. That is the business model now in use for D&D.

It cracks me up when gamers try to set goals for WotC that WotC themselves haven't set.

"Here's the unrealistic goal I think they (should/obviously do) have. They have not met that goal. FAILURE!!"

It's so silly. Why not let WotC set their goals and then have them determine if they've met the goals?

-O

 

[Mark]

It cracks me up when gamers try to set goals for WotC that WotC themselves haven't set.

"Here's the unrealistic goal I think they (should/obviously do) have. They have not met that goal. FAILURE!!"

It's so silly. Why not let WotC set their goals and then have them determine if they've met the goals?

-O

Don't spin my post like that. That's not setting a goal, it is a limitation I describe. I hope they sell a lot but it is unlikely that they will sell any PHB2s to many who do not have the PHB1, etc.

 

[Treebore]

The problem is that WOTC has touted for years that there are 6 million D&D gamers worldwide for years. This court filing is far from the first time they have made this number known. They never made their number of sales known, until now.

So for years they have been giving the impression they had a market of 6 million D&D players that they were selling too. Now we know, for sure, they were no where close to selling to 6 million D&D players. They are only close to selling to maybe half a million. A far different impression now.

So now I ask are there 6 million D&D players? IF so, what D&D are they playing if it isn't 4E? Is 1E and 2E as dead as many have assumed all these years? Or do they make up a large number of those 6 million gamers? Or is the 6 million a total lie? What is the real number if 6 million is a lie? 1 Million? 500,000? 350,000?

Plus now that we know that WOTC isn't selling to these 6 million gamers, in fact far, far fewer, WOTC and the D&D brand isn't this overwhelmingly dominating brand anymore, are they? They only cater to a few hundred thousand people now, not millions.

 

[Ourph]

Again, not relevant. Did the sales reach the goals set by corp management? When you know the answer to that, you will know whether it was a success or failure...

The fact that the book sold out of its first print run in less than a month would seem to indicate that it sold better than management was expecting. Frame the question in any way you want, but it's not going to convince me that attaching the word "failure" to a book that made #14 on the bestseller list is, in any way, a reasonable interpretation of the facts.

 

[darjr]

I dunno Treebore. I find your argument not very compelling on it's assumptions. And I think you've gone past the point of really hearing counter arguments to those assumptions.

I hope not.

I think that it's entirely reasonable that not all D&D players would immediately buy the latest version, for all sorts of reasons. There wouldn't be any reason to keep the original core books in print after the initial runs if that were not the case.

3.5 PHB's were still being printed for a good long while, slowly going out the doors to that 6 million.

What other brand of RPG gets even close to the numbers on those top selling lists? Show that and the argument for D&D not being the top dog will start to hold some water.

 

[Obryn]

Don't spin my post like that. That's not setting a goal, it is a limitation I describe. I hope they sell a lot but it is unlikely that they will sell any PHB2s to many who do not have the PHB1, etc.

Sorry, when you said "WotC should be able to sell..." it looked like a goal, not a limit.

-O

 

[Treebore]

I dunno Treebore. I find your argument not very compelling on it's assumptions. And I think you've gone past the point of really hearing counter arguments to those assumptions.

I hope not.

I think that it's entirely reasonable that not all D&D players would immediately buy the latest version, for all sorts of reasons. There wouldn't be any reason to keep the original core books in print after the initial runs if that were not the case.

3.5 PHB's were still being printed for a good long while, slowly going out the doors to that 6 million.

What other brand of RPG gets even close to the numbers on those top selling lists? Show that and the argument for D&D not being the top dog will start to hold some water.

Why do people keep saying I am making assumptions?

Fact: WOTC claims there are 6 million D&D players world wide, for many years now.

Fact: WOTC admits to selling only "a few hundred thousand copies of" their core books.

Fact: WOTC has publicly claimed that 4E is out selling 3E.

So if all of those are true facts, I am not making any assumptions except for what exact numbers might be. Its still a fact that there are far fewer than 1 million players of 4E. If 4E is indeed already outselling 3E we now know 3E never had more than a few hundred thousand sales as well.

So we now know for a fact that there may be 6 million D&D players out there, but most of them (4 million+) NEVER played 3E or 4E.

These are not assumptions, these are facts proven by the numbers given by WOTC themselves. This is taking into account 1 set of books per group of 6 players, since that is the only way they can even approach 2 million players, let alone customers, with only a few hundred thousand sales of their core books.

These are not assumptions, but facts derived from the numbers given by WOTC themselves.

Do the math, do the estimates based on various estimates of books per group, etc... the numbers prove what I say.

 

[Mark]

Sorry, when you said "WotC should be able to sell..." it looked like a goal, not a limit.

-O

Your ellipsis ends just before the crucial "up to" part of the quote. That's what makes it a limit. I wonder if they might sell some PHB3s to people who have the PHB1 and not the PHB2?

 

[Remathilis]

Why do people keep saying I am making assumptions?

Fact: WOTC claims there are 6 million D&D players world wide, for many years now.

Fact: WOTC admits to selling only "a few hundred thousand copies of" their core books.

Fact: WOTC has publicly claimed that 4E is out selling 3E.

So if all of those are true facts, I am not making any assumptions except for what exact numbers might be. Its still a fact that there are far fewer than 1 million players of 4E. If 4E is indeed already outselling 3E we now know 3E never had more than a few hundred thousand sales as well.

So we now know for a fact that there may be 6 million D&D players out there, but most of them (4 million+) NEVER played 3E or 4E.

These are not assumptions, these are facts proven by the numbers given by WOTC themselves. This is taking into account 1 set of books per group of 6 players, since that is the only way they can even approach 2 million players, let alone customers, with only a few hundred thousand sales of their core books.

These are not assumptions, but facts derived from the numbers given by WOTC themselves.

Do the math, do the estimates based on various estimates of books per group, etc... the numbers prove what I say.

FACT: All cats die.

FACT: Socrates is dead.

THEREFORE: Socrates was a cat.

Sure Wizards has 6 million people playing D&D; they are counting people who play older editions with the D&D logo on it, people who play with the SRD, people who online/game versions (like DDO or NWN), etc. Not all of these people bought, or play, 4e. The PHB2 holds no value to them.

Similarly, not everyone who plays D&D 4e needs to buy a PHB2. In my group, we have three copies among five players (a couple who ones one set of each books between, myself, and the DM). Heck, one guy doesn't even have the PHB1!

If Wizard's has said "We sold 6 million 4e PHBs" last year and then followed it up with "a few hundred-thousand" PHB2, then you'd have a point. But what you're implying is that unless WotC sells 3 million PHB2s, it a failure and D&D will die.

I guess that'd make D&D a cat, wouldn't it?

 

[darjr]

One assumption is that 'hundreds of thousands' means a number close to 500,000.