I was reading the 4E boards at Monte's site and he interjected this bit (as well as a later tidbit that AU/AE sold in the range of 30k copies)
http://okayyourturn.yuku.com/sreply/149174/t/4E-AE-I-really-do-hope-so-.html
Not to speak for Monte or dredge the battle about his 2 year old OGL comments, but that post was made 3/13/08 and would seem to reflect some current OGL thinking on his part.
EDIT:For the lazy:
Monte said:
"{I understand your point of view, but the reality hasn't held up that point of view. WOTC has mentioned the many reasons they are not sticking with a complete OGL. Basically, the OGL became a competition for WOTC.}
I'm positive that you're correct that this is what they've said, but that doesn't mean they're right. I think it's more a symptom of the fact that every single person in the company that supported the OGL concept and truly understood the benefits of it is gone now and has been for at least a year.
This is long, but I sort of feel the need to restate it every once in a while. I don't mean to jump on anyone here, though.
To bring this back to AU/AE, let's use it as an example (since it gets used as an example of things that "hurt" WotC through the OGL from time to time). Yes, we had tremendous sales in with AU/AE. Significant even by WotC standards. But I'll ask you, AE fans, in the long run, which of these options best describes the majority of you:
A. You refrained from buying a WotC product you would have otherwise bought so you could buy AU or AE that month, and DIDN'T buy that WotC product later.
B. You stopped buying WotC products altogether BECAUSE of AU/AE.
C. You bought AU/AE but also buy lots of WotC products, either because you also play D&D, or you use them to supplement AE.
D. You bought AU/AE to supplement your D&D game.
E. You stayed with d20-style gaming longer than you would have because of AU/AE.
I'll argue (and I've really been paying attention the last four and a half years) that the vast majority of AU customers were D. Many AU and most of AE customers are C. E is significantly larger than B, which indicates that AU/AE helped D&D more than it hurt. A, the most straightforward example of actual product competition, basically doesn't exist, other than a few corner cases.
And AU/AE's sales are by far the exception in this industry, rather than the rule. Any professional that claims that companies putting a few thousand copies of something providing tangible competetion (that outweighs the benefits*) just doesn't understand the realities of the rpg marketplace.
*To pre-empt a bit, the benefits to D&D of someone buying a non-WotC OGL product are these:
1. Every purchase of an OGL product keeps the customer playing D&D or a D&D-like game rather than learning an entirely new system, which is far more likely to encourage someone to drop D&D.
2. Every purchase of an OGL product keeps the customer playing rpgs. When I was at WotC we realized that the actual competitor to D&D isn't any other game, computer games, and so on. It's real life. People quit playing because they get other friends, get a girlfriend, move away, get married, get busy at work, have kids, lose interest, or find other hobbies. Anything that keeps people gaming a little longer makes it that much more likely that they'll still buy D&D products.
3. A good (or even mediocre) OGL product may serve to fix a customer's percieved problem with D&D and keeps them playing. The more of them the better.
4. A lot of OGL products make the D&D brand look more significant in the marketplace.
So. How 'bout them rhodin?"