Predictions of the d20/gaming Industry

[RyanD]

FWIW, I think that's part of the business plan. Let me elaborate a bit on some of John Nephew's earlier thoughts.

Nailed it.

 

[mearls]

So they fire you. They revamp and relaunch the line, making your super-army illegal. The die-hard super-customers don't mind and buy lots more product, so GW wins there. New customers try out the new game and get on the product treadmill for the first time, so GW wins there. And customers like you -- the ones who have reached the point of diminishing returns for GW -- get fed up and leave. GW wins there, too, because the 12-year-old coming in will spend more in the next 4 years than you would have.

And, to tie this in to the pricing discussion, the new generation of customers is wholly ignorant of the old pricing schemes. They don't see anything wrong with paying $5.00 for a blister back of 2 figures that used to come 5 figures to an $8.00 pack because they never experienced those older prices. As someone else pointed out, there have been shifts in GW's pricing structures that resulted in larger figures once sold in $12 blisters being repackaged in boxes and sold for $25.

 

[kenjib]

Nailed it.

So then when are we all fired?

Thanks,

Kenji
-Waiting for his slip

 

[Ulrick]

Okay, after reading some of the recent posts dealing with pricing and whatnot. I have new prediction:

Most Gaming Companies will become total bastards to their loyal customers if they haven't already. And if they don't become total bastards, they'll eventually go under because they won't be able to make a profit.

While the old customers will be completely disgruntled with the gaming companies, the newbies in the industry won't think anything of it because the companies have "cool stuff."

That's what I seem to be seeing here according to what I have read.

Ulrick

 

[RyanD]

So then when are we all fired?

Many people who buy a PHB never buy another D&D product.

Those of you who buy a DMG usually buy a MM too. Then you stop buying products.

About a third of you buy something else beyond The Big Three. One or two books.

About a fifth of you buy books "close to the core" like Manual of the Planes or the Psionics Handbook. (A surprising large number of you bought the FRCS, for which I am extremely gratified).

About a tenth of you buy adventures or sourcebooks.

Chris is exactly right when he suggests that unlike GW, the D&D business doesn't rely on regularly disenfranchising its customers; as long as the business stays focused on selling PHBs to new people (and, by extension, that means constantly working to recruit new people), all the previous customers benefit because the network stays strong. Those of you who continue to be interested in buying products are going to be extraordinarily well served by the various OGL publishers - and occasionally, WotC may make something that you really value as well.

The GW and D&D business are different because the 12 year old kid with a PHB can have just as good a character as the guy with $1,000 worth of D&D products. (The 12 year old kid with the contents of an $80 Warhammer 40K starter set gets his ass handed to him every time he plays a vetran WH40K player with a custom built army). The challenge for the D&D business is that many people spend just $20, and most people spend just $60 on the hobby, while a committed GW player averages $500 a year in sales.

There's roughly two million people playing D&D regularly (in the US). There's only about 100,000 Warhammer players (and only about 100,000 Magic players). Warhammer (and Magic) players are worth about $2,000 each in lifetime sales, vs. about $200 for D&D players. And the Warhammer (and Magic) customers buy most of that $2,000 in the first five years they're in the hobby, wheras the D&D player spreads her purchases out over decades.

Now, if someone could figure out a way to sell something to those 2 million active D&D players on a regular basis that increased their lifetime value as customers, you'd really have a tremendous business on your hands. Even if you only managed to get $5 or so a month from them. If I figure that problem out, I'll be sure to let you all know.

 

[Thorin Stoutfoot]

hm... a subscription model for D&D

Ryan,

What about subscriptions to Dungeon and Dragon? Those people pay $35 a year to WoTC. Or are the circulation figures for Dungeon and Dragon negligible compared to the user base?

 

[The Traveler]

Now, if someone could figure out a way to sell something to those 2 million active D&D players on a regular basis that increased their lifetime value as customers, you'd really have a tremendous business on your hands. Even if you only managed to get $5 or so a month from them. If I figure that problem out, I'll be sure to let you all know.

Oh, it's very simple.

Clone me about a hundred times, and buy a small island nation for the resulting game addict horde.

God, I spend too much on games.

Alternately, you could clone Gordon, who works at my FLGS, and make the resulting clones all work at WotC's Game Keeper stores. The man could sell Icebox: The Chilling to fans of Eskimos & Igloos, if you catch my drift.

 

[kenjib]

Ryan,

I can really see the dilemma there for WotC, but you must admit that programmed obsolescence is a bit of a hard pill to swallow. I can see your business logic though and it does present a problem.

WotC already has product diversification into other markets with products that have shorter life spans - this is already underway with movies, novels, TV, and computer games. Does this help at all or does it just introduce more risk of bust/boom Pokemon syndrome?

Subscription services - Thorin Stoutfoot just mentioned the magazines. Has there been thought into a MMORPG billed monthly? Such a thing co co-exist alongside Neverwinter Nights as they fill different niches what with a single persistant world and dynamic content. What other kinds of services are possible? Is it possible to hook people into pre-ordering a year's worth of books at a discount subscription rate? That might encourage people to buy books that they wouldn't have otherwise.

I dunno. It seems like diversification should help keep the business more robust but WotC is already doing all of this as far as I can tell so I don't know what to say. Thanks for your honesty and for giving me such an interesting glimpse into the inside workings of the biz.

 

[RyanD]

Has there been thought into a MMORPG billed monthly?

What would you think about paying to play a MMRPG (no "O")?

 

[hong]

What would you think about paying to play a MMRPG (no "O")?

I would think the logistics of organising the "MM" would be a bit difficult without the "O". But I could be wrong....

What I, personally, would pay money for is something like NWN, but with professional DMs and some sort of long-term campaign. I'm not talking about yet another EQ clone. I'm thinking of something that allows small groups to take part in personalised adventures, without the hassles that go with a massive player population. I think the Vampire CRPG had something along these lines, but the GM's toolkit was a bear to use (and never meant to be released publicly, IIRC).

Mind you, I'm quite surprised that Wizards hasn't already licensed its own EQ-clone, using one of its existing worlds like FR, Greyhawk or even Dominaria.