Predictions of the d20/gaming Industry

[RyanD]

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Personally, I think most of the d20 companies out right now won't be around by this time next year.
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This is nuts. People were saying it two years ago, and it wasn't any more true then than it is now.

I think there's already been a significant winnowing, but most people haven't seen it. I was, at one point, tracking announced d20 products vs those that actually shipped, and starting around October of last year, started seeing more and more not come to market. I attributed that to people expecting to make deals at GenCon in time for Christmas, and failing to do so.

Of the publishers who are likely to get distribution through a major distributor, I suspect that few will "fail" outright. I do believe that a number will not bring further products to market, and essentially be "one shot" publishers; after getting their first product out the door, they've learned that it is very hard work to produce an RPG product and doesn't pay very well.

On the other hand, the publishers who are demonstrating an ability to bring products to market consisently aren't going anywhere.

I think Neverwinter Nights will have a negligible impact upon the paper and pencil roleplaying business, but will outsell the Player's Handbook by orders of magnitude.

I agree that it won't have any affect at all on tabletop RPG play, but it won't sell that well. Baldur's Gate, recognized as the best selling "western" RPG sold a little over a million and a half units through its lifecycle. EverQuest has sold fewer units than the 3e PHB has. I think NWN might outsell the first two years of the 3e PHB, but not the first three years, unless its spectacularly succesful (Baldur's Gate success levels). However, BioWare, who is the developer, is going to have to carry a lot of load on this one, and they're hip deep with Lucasarts on the Knights of the Old Republic (or whatever the heck it's called) new Star Wars RPG, which has all the potential to be a leathal distractor.

I do think that NWN will probably keep a lot of tabletop RPG players busy for a few weeks after it ships, but not much longer than that.

Books will get more expensive. And rightly so.

Amen my brother.

Two years from now, I think someone will make a huge impact using the OGL, rather than the d20 license. I don't think it'll happen this year, and I'd frankly be surprised if it was the recently announced Everquest game that did it.

Unless the EQ game gets into Wal*Mart, in which case it could outsell D&D and create a very competitive network externality.

Last prediction: Publishers are going to start picking very public fights with each other over intentionally stealing product concepts and "adjusting" release dates specifically to screw previously announced projects. This will get very loud, and very ugly. It'll probably also be fairly entertaining.

Already started.

Ryan

 

[RyanD]

I'd be interested to hear your reasoning. If the game is good enough, don't you see people dropping P&P altogether to run their campaigns on NWN instead? Or for that matter, picking up NWN and being introduced P&P gaming through that?

It's not that good. It will require a very sophisticated user to set up and manage effective scenarios - not a sophisticated DM, but someone with actual software development experience (because all the stuff in the engine is scripted behaviors).

The game is essentially Diablo on steroids. It's not a replacement for face to face, tabletop gaming.

On the other hand, it's a first step down a long path that could eventually lead to products that could replace the tabletop RPG (or evolve the form into something so digital that the difference becomes moot.)

NWN is going to replace D&D on the tabletop about as well as Pong replaced tennis on the court.

 

[rounser]

The game is essentially Diablo on steroids.

Darn. Not that Diablo is bad, just the antithesis of what the information available about the game seemed to be making it out to be.

It will require a very sophisticated user to set up and manage effective scenarios - not a sophisticated DM, but someone with actual software development experience (because all the stuff in the engine is scripted behaviors).

I thought they were providing user friendly tools to get around this sort of stumbling block? Nevertheless, no matter how you dress it up though, scripting is scripting is scripting, so I see your point. You'll still be programming it at the end of the day, which is sure to turn a bunch of people off.

 

[Mistwell]

EverQuest has sold fewer units than the 3e PHB has.

Umm, are you sure about that? Everquest sold over 1 million copies, according to their website. See http://www.sonyonline.com/press/Presskit/EN/html/frames/frame3/product_info_eq.htm

Just how many copies of the 3e PHB have been sold to date?

 

[rounser]

Umm, are you sure about that? Everquest sold over 1 million copies, according to their website. See http://www.sonyonline.com/press/Pre...uct_info_eq.htm

Ryan has corrected me in the past on that assumption ("Except that more people play D&D each month than play all the MMOLRPGs combined."), so yes, I'd say he's pretty sure.

D&D is more popular than MMORPGs by a large margin.

 

[Mistwell]

Just for reference, in addition to Everquest, the basic product, selling over 1 Million copies, here are the stats for the remaining expansions:

EverQuest®: The Ruins of Kunark™ : 400,000+ copies to date.

EverQuest®: The Scars of Velious™: 300,000+ copies to date.

EverQuest®: The Shadows of Luclin™: 120,000+ on it's first release date, unknown total sales figures.

Currently, the game has 420,000 active, paying accounts. Each account pays $12.95/month, or less, if they purchase a longer term account.

I have no idea how these numbers compare to Wizards official numbers for Dungeons and Dragons 3rd Edition sales, or even if they are comparable.

It just seems to me that it would be unwise to underestimate the power of online gaming.

 

[rounser]

I have no idea how these numbers compare to Wizards official numbers for Dungeons and Dragons 3rd Edition sales, or even if they are comparable.

I'd judge that Ryan is in a position to compare, having seen the figures.

It just seems to me that it would be unwise to underestimate the power of online gaming.

No offence intended, but...as opposed to, say, underestimating the popularity of P&P D&D, such as you seem to be doing?

I agree with you that it's surprising, but someone's buying those PHBs.

 

[Psion]

Just for reference, in addition to Everquest, the basic product, selling over 1 Million copies, here are the stats for the remaining expansions:

Compared to D&D's 3 millions PH's. And since I am not counting D&D supplements, I won't count your EQ "supplements" either.

Currently, the game has 420,000 active, paying accounts. Each account pays $12.95/month, or less, if they purchase a longer term account.

Which does make it more lucrative than D&D from the seller standpoint, but considering that at the same time that makes it LESS attractive from the consumer standpoint ($13 a month so I can go "level up" when I can get ProgressQuest for free? Why bother? ), I don't think MMPORPGs are going to dry up the D&D "user base." I imagine most poeple who prefer MMPORPGs are already playing them.

It just seems to me that it would be unwise to underestimate the power of online gaming.

It seems to me unwise to over-estimate it as well.

 

[Ashtal]

Hmmm. Neverwinter Nights, Everquest, and D&D.

Okay, totally personal perspective here: I agree. NWN is not going to do anything to the D&D market. Not a blip. People won't be dropping their P&P games in droves to play this game.

Why? Oh, the reasons.

1) Hardware. This is going to take a fast processor, a good video card, and preferably a cable connection. Yeah, you could probably muddle through with 56K, but I could also eat birch bark for fun. That alone removes a LOT of potential people from the P&P gaming community, but that community is only a fraction of the general video game community in the first place. (If it were the same, we'd have a hell of a lot more P&P players!)

2) Software. Each player will need to pick up the game. There's $60-80 bucks, depending on where you live. Much more than a $30 PHB.

3) Computer Skills. Of this I mean the 'mad' variety for the guy hosting the game. While there is a drag and drop interface for dungeon design, if you want to get more into the scripting, that's going to take a fair chunk of time, too.

4) Limitations of the software. Just like any online game, there is a set field of parameters of what is possible. Want to start throwing oranges at the king during a banquet? Sorry, can't do that. There are also the limitations of the palette. You will be able to function reasonably well within the templates and graphics they provide, but they will never be able to recreate your homebrew. I wonder at how slow things will get in massive crowd scenes, too. PCs themselves will be built from a finite number of options - a far cry from the customization offered to you in a P&P game.

What will this replace? I think it has a chance of putting a dent in Diablo 2's popularity and some of the online games where disruptive players are a large problem. At least among users who want a little more customization and better graphics, and don't mind doing some work. But the P&P games, which offer a different kind of experience, aren't going to go away. People didn't stop going to movies in droves when television or the VCR or the DVD were invented. Neither are they going to stop playing P&P games because there is something that shares the same backdrop - fantasy - but offers a different kind of experience.

 

[der_kluge]

die_kluge,

Do you really think that the average game store owner doesn't know what is due out in the market? As a game store owner myself, I think that would be highly irresponsible of them and be terrible for business.

DayKnight, yes, I do think that. Most of the stores I go into, the owner doesn't really have a clue when I ask about a D20 product that is coming out. "When is ABC coming out?" I usually get one of two responses:
"What is ABC?"
or
"When I see it on my shelf, that's when it's out."
or maybe a third response: "I get my shipments in on Friday, check back then."