Predictions of the d20/gaming Industry

[Mystic Eye]

Finally

I am thrilled to see that most folks have stopped yelling "The sky is falling, D20 is going to crash and sales are going fall off so badly the market will go away" opinion and come to a more realistic viewpoint. I see now that most people, while expecting less new companies and some buy outs, etc realize that the market is simply stabilizing a bit after the "boom".

Personally, I think that d20 is still young as a business opportunity though I also believe that the "window of opportunity" for new print publishers has narrowed a great deal.

I think that someone mentioned that the industry has not found a great way to target their consumers and I think that is true. I still think there is a large, untapped market potential that is available yet for d20 publishers. I hope with OGL based products like Everquest Rpg and more innovative settings may bring a broader range of people into the d20 arena.

Also, something I did not see mentioned is a reverse of an FFG or AEG. d20 compaines branching out into other areas. This will happen, heck, we are doing it, and it will help to expand the market some. D20 was a FANTASTIC springboard for a small publisher to become known to distribution and retail channels enough to attempt a non-d20 RPG product, or a boardgame, card game, etc. Each one of these attempts, if reasonably sucessful will potentially draw a new consumer to role playing and d20.

My opinion is that you will see much greater focus on setting material over time and less generic products. Eventually, there will be a generic book to cover almost anything and it will come down to setting fan bases and innovations with the rule set.

I also feel that you will see a market gap appear. Existing publishers will raise the bar. They will step up in more quality, content, and a higher prices and those that do not or cannot follow in suite will slow production and fade away overtime without an massive announcements of bankruptcy or people losing their shirts. I think most small guys will just say " this is to hard and I make to little money".
Publishing is not easy, it is a business and you are putting you money on the line ( or at least someone is). Most that go away will simply not want to put forth the effort and lose any cash.
Without some sort of reasonable business background it will be hard for some to manage tight cash flows while still marketing and producing new products. They will eventually shrug and walk away from it. I bet that has happened to several of those who announced a product that never got to print.

Well, just my two cents!

I think d20 is still a great thing for us all and has a ton of potential.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

quote:
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Originally posted by Erik Mona
Books will get more expensive. And rightly so.
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Amen my brother.

Then those books had better not be so shoddily made as to be falling apart within months of being bought. The whole argument people have to justify books being worth the expense is that the book will be around in a few decades, at least. We saw complaints soon after publication of books starting to come apart, and now even the books I take care of quite well are starting to show signs of disintegration.

That's why I think that electronic distribution may ultimately win out, over the long haul. One can get the electronic version, print it out, and when it starts to look bad, one can print out a fresh, clean copy. Of course, this is predicated upon printers and print cartridges becoming less and less expensive, which isn't too much of a stretch - especially when talking about decades of time.

 

[Buttercup]

Just about everybody who posts here knows more about this than I do, but I do have a few things to say that might be of interest.

I came to P&P through CRPGs. To be precise, Baldur's Gate. I found an online community which discussed the game, and got curious about the hobby from whence the game was derived. And I wasn't the only one.

Right now there are numerous online communities of CRPGers chomping at the bit, waiting for NWN to come out. During this interminable wait, many of us have started playing on the tabletop. I think that if NWN is a success, more players will be recruited, especially people like myself, who want to DM, but don't want to learn to script. Also, there are still millions of people out there who don't have a high speed internet connection, and can't afford to get one. Those people may be drawn to P&P as a way to further explore their hobby.

I agree that time is the most scarce resource. And now that I have two hobbies, CRPGs and P&P RPGs, I'm really crunched for time. Just ask my husband, who calls himself a D&D widower.

 

[Nadia]

look at the media craze with LOTR movie series and Henry Potter


its great news for all aspects of fantasy fandom
- books, games, etc

I dont have any sales figures,
but its refreshing to see rpg rule books being "pumped out" again in gamestores

 

[Vuron]

Ok these are my predictions for the d20 Marketplace (Personally I don't see a massive evaporation of the other RPGs as people were initial predicting)

1) Fewer Publishers making fewer but better produced products. I think one of the problems facing the d20 marketplace is that there is such a huge number of products coming out that you seem to have a couple of weeks before your products are buried under newer products. The only real way to break out of this is to produce a catchy product of substantial utility to DMs and Players alike.

2) More producers signing distribution agreements with larger firms. WW distributes Necromancer and Fiery Dragon, which gives those groups access to the mainstream marketplace (B&N) etc which they would otherwise be unable to access.

3) Slower sales on class books and option books than initial expected

4) Depending on sales of d20 stand-alone games (which seem to be more sluggish than desirable) there will be an attempt to create more alternate d20 products. However those products will not simply succeed because they are d20 but because they are good productions.

5) Further Cutbacks at WotC as CCG sales continue to weaken. However this will mean a greater exodus of creative talent to smaller design firms.

6) More reliance on freelancers to sell products, in the presence of so much product names that help sell products (Ed Greenwood, Monte Cook, etc) will be more important as buyers look to thier records of consistency in quality.

7) More emphasis on visual arts quality to acchieve greater sales, Wayne Reynolds art is better at drawing the casual shopper than unknown house artists.

8) Possible creation of adventure bundles, Module + Map board + Miniatures in one.

9) Compilation CDs, some point in time after initial product sales have deterioted on a product one could expect for a company to produce a compilation CD od several products OOP or otherwise with perhaps additional content or new content to encourage sales. This would save money on reprinting manuals and offer the consumer additional value.

10) A 4th edition version of d20 to enter production within 2 years

 

[RyanD]

Umm, are you sure about that? Everquest sold over 1 million copies, according to their website.

I may be working from faulty data. The last update I saw from a reputable 3rd party estimate was that sales of EQ were slightly higher than .5m units.

If sales volume is 1m units, it will take a couple of years for the 3e PHB to pass EQ.

On the other hand, it's possible that the Sony figure includes all units produced and sold, but does not allow for returns, which may have been significant considering the mass-market distribution the game received (where software returns are quite common).

Figures on play may be more constructive. There were, in 1999, 1.5 million people playing D&D every month in the US, and about 3 million people who reported playing D&D at least once in 1999. I suspect that those figures have gone up, but there is no more recent data available to me.

So even if Sony's number is accurate, and if everyone who bought the game was playing monthly (which they are not), there would still be more regular D&D players than EQ players.

 

[333 Dave]

Take the following as fact, for it will be so.

Companies like Malhavoc Press will become the rule rather than the exception. Small companies producing PDFs with complete autonomy, but a large print publisher (Sword and Sorcery, for example) that prints and distributes the products a few months after PDF release. In the next year the number of PDF publishers will double or more, although the drop off of print publishers will be small, and a slowly over a period of years stabilize to a dozen or so. Large companys like S&SS will take small companies like FDP under their wing, only on a larger scale. Do I think the number of publishers will dwindle? No. Will they be assimilated into larger companies? Yes.

 

[Wolfen Priest]

Re: Finally

Existing publishers will raise the bar. They will step up in more quality, content, and a higher prices and those that do not or cannot follow in suite will slow production and fade away overtime without an massive announcements of bankruptcy or people losing their shirts.

Here is one thing I have seen repeatedly that I do not come close to understanding. If the 3rd party d20 publishers start raising prices on their products, I for one will completely quit buying them, and I know that I'm not alone on this decision.

I have plenty of money to spend on d20 material; that is not the problem. I only have so much time to actually read all the material I do have, but honestly, I think that the level of quality (for the top-notch products from publishers already mentioned like AEG, Fantasy Flight Games, and of course WW) only justifies the current prices!

If prices for 3rd party material were to jump by, say, 20% without a significant increase in quality (and, given the high quality of material already coming out from the aforementioned publishers, that is unlikely), then I don't see myself pouring more money into a hobby where I barely have time to read through the products I do own, much less actually implement the ideas into a campaign.

My point is this: let's not hurry publishers to increase prices, which are already very high for a thin booklet (and don't even get me started on the pdf prices!). If d20 is going to survive, then it must follow the normal rules of commerce like all other facets of the economy; higher prices will mean lower sales volumes, and it will mean less revenue.

 

[kenjib]

I think the module design issue is a huge stumbling block for NWN. The vast majority of scenarios will fall into two categories:

1. Quickly thrown together McDungeons.
2. Ambitious plans for fantastic scenarios that are never finished.

Look at the game mod scene for point of reference. There will only be a few rare quality scenarios. I'd say less than five or six tops. IMO this will be the biggest problem for NWN. Right now everything is theoretical and expectations are running high, but I think that when it gets to the point of practicality it will fall short. Fan based mods (except for simple deathmatch type levels) are of almost consistently of poor quality. Some of them are almost as good as ones that are sold, but almost never as good let alone better. I believe that NWN will be no exception, although I would really love to be proven wrong - believe me on that.

 

[Mystic Eye]

Re: Re: Finally

Here is one thing I have seen repeatedly that I do not come close to understanding. If the 3rd party d20 publishers start raising prices on their products, I for one will completely quit buying them, and I know that I'm not alone on this decision.


If prices for 3rd party material were to jump by, say, 20% without a significant increase in quality (and, given the high quality of material already coming out from the aforementioned publishers, that is unlikely)

You quoted me but did not note what I said (not a big deal, I just want to be clear on it). Clearly, if 3rd party d20 guys raise pricing it will come with a quality increase. I probably should have said "right pricing". If all 3rd party publishers raise the bar to match or exceed AEG (Rokugan d20 and Spycraft primariy) and FF qualities then the prices will go up because the production has gone up. However, Most smaller 3rd party publishers are underpricing already (guilty myself) and in raising the bar the pricing must be correctly in tune with the market place. I am not saying a 20% price increase with no changes to quality should be made, I am not even hinting at that. "Raise the bar" indicates a increase in the overall quality of products.
You have to understand though, if you hire Todd Lockwood, Larry Elmore, or Brom to do an original cover (as one example) the price tag of the product WILL be higher even if only marginally.

My point really is that the market will stablize, products will all achieve a certain amount of quality, and the pricing will "right" itself for the market. Those that cannot make the commitment as a publisher will simply fade away.