Yeah, I know that the ogre's just an example.
Cyraneth said:
... still a 45% risk that you'll end up dead instead. Most likely less than what a 1st-level fighter might expect when facing an ogre ...
The fighter's risk, depending on tactics, might be even higher than that.
An ogre has 10' reach and a high enough attack bonus (+8) to hit the fighter rather easily, as well as the damage (2d8+7) to drop him (or any 1st-level character, for that matter).
And a 1st-level fighter (or barbarian or...) would have a hard time doing the ogre in (AC 16, 29 hp) before being slain by the monster.
'course, an ogre is really an opponent for a 3rd-level party anyway; 1st-level characters going up against one should expect heavy casualties.
But whether 1st or 3rd level - a sorcerer or wizard has a chance of ca. 55% of defeating the ogre in one round; melee combatants have to struggle for quite a bit longer than that.
Example: half-orc Bbn3, Str 22 (due to rage; 16+2race base), mw greatsword, WF - greatsword, Power Attack.
This Bbn has Attack +11, Dmg 2d6+9.
Normal attack: Hit on 5+ (80% chance), damage 2d6+9 (average of 16 points, or 55% of ogre's total)
Power attack +1: Hit on 6+ (75% chance), damage 2d6+11 (average of 18 points, or 62% of ogre's total)
Power attack +2: Hit on 7+ (70% chance), damage 2d6+13 (average of 20 points, or 69% of ogre's total)
Power attack +3: Hit on 8+ (65% chance), damage 2d6+15 (average of 22 points, or 76% of ogre's total)
And unless you put an 18 in Strength or have any useful magic items, that's about as bad as it can get at 3rd level (using only PHB races, at least).
'course, critical hits can change things very much; I once saw a 1st-level orc Barbarian (Str 22, or 26 while raging) take out an advanced (to 8 HD) barbazu in one blow (using only a greataxe and 1 pt. of D&D 3.0 Power Attack). He didn't have a magic weapon, so the barbazu's DR of 20/+2 counted.
(Note: The barbazu was at <10 hp already but the character's total damage was higher than the barbazu's hp while unwounded.)
Come to think of it, ogres with Power Attack would be quite nasty.
