In
@Lanefan 's example I am pretty sure that it is established that picking the lock is now established to not work; that is that Lanefan applies the no-retry rule, and find it so obvious it doesn't need mentioning.
Sure. I had presumed that.
A second thing that could have happened and that is very common in this kind of play is that behind the scenes a random event check was done. This would also be something beyond "nothing happen, just unimportant time passing", even if this is not visible in the fiction.
I don't really buy that the time--what, a minute? two minutes?--taken to pick a lock is relevant for this. I'm also, as usual, very, VERY skeptical of all these things that are kept completely mum from the players.
A third thing that could be happening is that there is a hidden clock ticking down. (Edit Side note - I actually think this is what the classic 6 turns between each random encounter check is in practice)
I don't see how this is any different from the previous point. It's just saying the same thing in a different way. Whether you roll the encounter now or "6 turns from now" is not a difference of method.
A fourth thing that could be happening is that the GM subtly changes their tone of voice, reflecting the situation becoming more foreboding or urgent (And take that into account in future crossroads).
But it explicitly isn't becoming more urgent. That's....literally part of the problem is that we've been specifically told it is NOT becoming more urgent.
Nothing happens.
Your criteria is very narrow. And the techniques for avoiding the problem you describe pose is so worked in and well known that they generally are not considered worth mentioning. It is just assumed that you use some flavor of them, exactly which is not so important.
I mean when I am specifically calling this out as a problem, I should think it would need mentioning! But beyond that, I don't really accept much of what you have provided here. The lock being established as unpickable
is (part of) the problem, I just flat-out do not see 1-2 minutes as making sense for a "random event check" situation, I don't see how "hidden clock ticking down" is any different from that previous thing, and all this "subtly changes their tone of voice" is specifically
contradicting the idea that, again, as specifically stated many times over,
nothing happens.
Further, all of these things go right back into what I've been saying all along: that what is actually happening is the GM orchestrating an experience, not simply dispassionately portraying a world as that world itself is. Your "fourth" point (recognizing that I think you've only really stated two points here, namely "encounters might occur because of time taken" and this point) is particularly problematic, because it is very literally all about establishing an emotional response, a feeling, a tone--which are all
drama concerns, not simulation ones.
So, what do we do if--again, building off what Lanefan himself has said!--no meaningful time has been expended? That seems to leave us with "the GM narrates the scene in a way that has the sound of greater drama". That's...really not much of anything at all, because no events have occurred, and the players already know that they still need to get into the house! Seems to me that if we're caring about drama, it's better served by actually having something
happen, so long as that happening is reasonably linked to what we know to be true. Hence why I use examples like,
because Lilia has been fiddling with the lock for five minutes trying to get it open,
that is why she's now in a tight spot because the chef is about to exist the door (or whatever else)--it is in fact her failure to pick which has put her in that compromised position.