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Just what the dice rolls in games always do: that factors too small or obscure to show in setting difficulty made the difference. That's what they always do.
That's the point. No they don't. In sim leaning games, the dice generate information about how a task succeeded or failed. Again, I've demonstrated this. If your roll is below your modified skill value, you succeeded. Why did you succeed? Well, if the modifier is positive, then any roll lower than your skill rating succeeded because of your skill because you would have succeeded regardless of the modifier. If it succeeds because of the modifier? Well then that modifier obviously had some impact on why you succeeded. Conversely, if you succeeded despite a penalty, you succeded based on your skill. If you failed, but the reason you failed is due to the penalty, then that penalty has something to do with why you failed. If you outright failed, well then your skill was never sufficient to succeed.
You keep focusing on the result. The results don't matter. It doesn't matter what the final result is. That cannot be what makes something a simulation.
Look, every single RPG, of any stripe, has mechanics for resolving tasks. That's a baseline requirement for all RPG's AFAIK. Maybe there are RPG's out there that don't, but, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that in every RPG out there, the player declares an action, the mechanics are used to determine success or failure of that action. It doesn't matter if we use count up, count down, D20, D100 or DWayne (where you ask someone named Wayne to provide an answer). Doesn't matter. ALL RPG's have some sort of mechanic that will create a result of a task.
So, if we are differentiating simulation from other RPG's, simply providing a resolution to a task isn't enough. It can't be since that means that simulation has no meaning - it encompasses all RPG's. So, what differentiates sim leaning mechanics from other games? My answer is that the sim leaning mechanics must provide some information about how the result occured. The sim leaning mechanics must guide the narrative. "Make stuff up" is part and parcel to all RPG's. The most artsy fartsy, pass the story stick Indie game out there has "make stuff up" as a means of justifying results.
If it's not, "simulationist leaning mechanics must provide some guidance to the narration of how a result was achieved" - note, Sorenson's paper on sim very much agrees with this point - then give me an alternative that isn't, "Make stuff up". How do you differentiate a sim leaning mechanic from any other mechanic? Or are we back to "it's sim because I like this game, and I stake my identity as a gamer as not liking those other games, so, it must be sim"? Because that's generally how sim has been defined in the past.