D&D 5E Reasons Why My Interest in 5e is Waning

[Hussar]

The market drops in half and that's no big deal? People, like you, are already clamouring and starting umpteen threads about not having new supplements and how this is going to sink 5e. And you think D&D dropping out entirely won't have a massive ripple effect?

Sorry, no, I don't think so. If D&D was to close up shop today, that would drive the remaining hobby stores virtually entirely out of business (they've been dying a slow death for the last twenty years, last numbers I saw pegged the number of gaming shops at about 500 in the US, down from thousands ten years ago). Which would mean no more Adventurers League and probably no more Pathfinder Society. Which means much fewer new gamers entering the hobby. Ten years from now, natural attrition would pretty much kill the hobby.

 

[BryonD]

So, let me understand this, the size of the industry drops nearly in half with the departure of WOTC and 4e, and that's not harming the hobby? I'd say that's pretty destructive and indicative of what will happen if Hasbro actually does shelve D&D. Was there any indications of growth after WOTC's departure? I doubt it. If WOTC and D&D drop out of the hobby industry, we dwindle and die in ten years.

You mean the industry that you keep coming up with analogy after analogy to describe how we have no real information on the size of it? Is that the one?

Even if your numbers were remotely correct, the extrapolation you proposed here is completely divorced from any form of market theory.

If WotC and D&D go away, the industry doesn't remember it is 3 years. You take a battleship out of the ocean and the hole just fills right in like it was never there in the first place.

It seems that in Cheyenne you could not find a gaming group recently. With the vast variables in play, this could happen in a variety of places.
But there has been no hue and cry through any of the 4E trials with regard to masses of people who couldn't find a group or couldn't get their fix of new gaming product.

Now, it may be down compared to the height of the D20 "golden age". It almost certainly is. But that is not a remotely fair standard.

If we assume that the peak was 30% above "typical" and the low of the 4E era was 30% below "typical" then 70/130 is almost a drop of 50%. So, I guess if you really cherry pick your data and make a lot of assumptions......


But even under that scenario it is foolish to forecast a doomsday scenario. Peaks and valleys around an average do not make for a linear extrapolation in one direction.

 

[MerricB]

The market drops in half and that's no big deal? People, like you, are already clamouring and starting umpteen threads about not having new supplements and how this is going to sink 5e. And you think D&D dropping out entirely won't have a massive ripple effect?

Sorry, no, I don't think so. If D&D was to close up shop today, that would drive the remaining hobby stores virtually entirely out of business .

I'm sorry? What?

If D&D were to close up shop, only a few hobby stores would notice. OTOH, if Magic were to close up shop, that would have a significant impact on hobby stores.

 

[BryonD]

The market drops in half and that's no big deal? People, like you, are already clamouring and starting umpteen threads about not having new supplements and how this is going to sink 5e. And you think D&D dropping out entirely won't have a massive ripple effect?

It would have a HUGE ripple effect.
Some players in the market would get hurt badly.
Others would win big.

Sorry, no, I don't think so. If D&D was to close up shop today, that would drive the remaining hobby stores virtually entirely out of business (they've been dying a slow death for the last twenty years, last numbers I saw pegged the number of gaming shops at about 500 in the US, down from thousands ten years ago). Which would mean no more Adventurers League and probably no more Pathfinder Society. Which means much fewer new gamers entering the hobby. Ten years from now, natural attrition would pretty much kill the hobby.

Gaming shops. True.

The hobby will live very very well without them.

Your presumption that organized play is critical to new players now and/or alternative means of getting into play would also stop existing is without basis.

Again, you are the guy who has found one single point of connection between 3.5 and essentials and declared (Monty Python style) that therefore the two things are expressly connected.

Every analysis you present is just massive confirmation bias overload to justify bitterness.

Edit to account for Merric's good point: I think that hobby shops are a dying breed do to the evolving economy.

 

[BryonD]

I'm sorry? What?

If D&D were to close up shop, only a few hobby stores would notice. OTOH, if Magic were to close up shop, that would have a significant impact on hobby stores.

Also a very good point.

 

[Hussar]

I'm sorry? What?

If D&D were to close up shop, only a few hobby stores would notice. OTOH, if Magic were to close up shop, that would have a significant impact on hobby stores.

Now there's a fair point. I wasn't thinking about the CCG's.

 

[Hussar]

/snip

Again, you are the guy who has found one single point of connection between 3.5 and essentials and declared (Monty Python style) that therefore the two things are expressly connected.

Every analysis you present is just massive confirmation bias overload to justify bitterness.

Edit to account for Merric's good point: I think that hobby shops are a dying breed do to the evolving economy.

And what would that single point be?

And, dude, bitterness? What?

 

[MerricB]

Now there's a fair point. I wasn't thinking about the CRPG's.

Do you mean CCGs?

My FLGS here in Ballarat makes the majority of its money through Magic and Yu-Gi-Oh!, with miniatures from Games Workshop and Privateer also contributing significantly. It sells board games as well, and makes money from D&D as well, somewhere in the mix - but towards the lower end. It doesn't sell Pathfinder. (Although there are PF players, we all find it far more convenient to subscribe to Paizo's releases than go through the hassle of the distributor/retailer chain. That said, I think the main two of us have stopped subscribing to most PF releases, as they're irrelevant to our interests).

There may have been a time when RPGs were a major driver of sales for hobby stores, but I have the feeling that hasn't been true since the early 90s, although there would likely be exceptions.

Cheers!

 

[Hussar]

Do you mean CCGs?

/snip

Blarg. Edited. Sigh.

I'm not sure though. I think that hobby stores are a major gateway point into the hobby still. Sure, word of mouth and being pulled in by existing groups is probably still the most common way, but, I do think that the hobby stores serve as a pretty important, and most importantly, visible point of entry into the hobby. Whether you enter the hobby straight into RPG's or through other means like CCG's or board games.

 

[MerricB]

Blarg. Edited. Sigh.

I'm not sure though. I think that hobby stores are a major gateway point into the hobby still. Sure, word of mouth and being pulled in by existing groups is probably still the most common way, but, I do think that the hobby stores serve as a pretty important, and most importantly, visible point of entry into the hobby. Whether you enter the hobby straight into RPG's or through other means like CCG's or board games.

I think gaming stores are incredibly important as an entry point to hobby gaming. (It's a view that Wizards has, and Paizo does not.)

However, there is a disconnect from "games need hobby stores" and "hobby stores need game" - the hobby stores need games that make money (and preferably, a lot of money. See Magic), while there are games that are far more dependent on hobby store visibility than others.

Cheers!