I wouldn’t say that Pf2 is shrinking based on the Amazon numbers and Roll20, but there’s no way I’d say it’s growing right now. It has an engaged fan base (me included). That’s a start.
If they want more players then Paizo needs a hook to reach the category of 5e players open to something new.
I also don't think you can definitively make a call from those numbers about the total number of players. However, I do think the Amazon numbers tell you how the "casual" players are picking up the game. To me, this person is someone who wants to try the game but doesn't want to spend a lot of money; may not have or even know about a Friendly Local Gaming Store; saw the game somewhere and wants to see more without a big investment; etc. The declining numbers say to me that this crowd in general is not picking up the game. That's not too surprising given the complexity of PF2 vs 5e and it's prominence.
While I don't think message boards are of statistical signfigance, I don't think thats data we have in the first place. I'd argue its likely the best data we have.
I may be misunderstanding your point here, but I think they are a factor that can help explain what we see. When I look at survey data, I look at the comments to help give other answers context. Here, the number of comments and frequency tell me how energetic the crowd is. If I wanted to read what people say, that tells me narratives people hold about the game, which is a different question than what we've all been discussing.
The Amazon sales rank depends specifically on sales through Amazon when Amazon most definetly doesnt carry the pdfs, which probably have massive volume, and doesnt reflect subscriber number, or the inventory-clearing sales surge from the humble bundle either.
Yes, all that is true, which is why I don't use Amazon numbers to say anything about the overall health of Paizo. We can't say anything regarding PDF sales or volume unless Paizo releases numbers. I haven't seen any disclosures like
Hasbro makes about D&D sales in 2020. I don't think the company has to like Hasbro does, but until I hear or see a stat about growth there, I can't tell anything about it. Without an official statement of some kind, I will only assume subscriptions are staying the same. Someone please educate me if there has been news on this that is recent.
Meanwhile roll 20 while strong for other game systems is recommended against heavily in the Pathfinder community, which from an information sciences perspective means Google searches looking (functionally) for consumer review material are turning up the Foundry recommendation.
Yup, which is why I don't see the declining numbers in and of themselves as a bad thing. It's more a reflection on Roll20 and it's lack of support. Based on other comments, the lack of support is probably not a big thing, either.
Similarly, online discussion has changed dramatically over the last few years as Discord has come to be a center for that kind of engagement, rather than traditional forums.
That is a good point, but that would affect all game systems, too. That is why I look at the established forums I used to go to that are still around for a cursory examination, and I don't see a lot of PF2 chatter.
Its also one of a few things giving us information that things are going well, as Paizo is still hiring, and the release schedule shows no signs of slowing down beyond them having gotten the core of the game out in a crunch and transitioning to the pace theyve been talking about since day one.
I don't want to talk too much about items involving the economic health of Paizo because that involves other areas that aren't relevant to PF2's reception and uptake, even if it's the flagship product. Hiring is good news overall, true. Knowing a little about publications, I put less weight into the release pace. That's dictated months and months in advance. It's good they haven't changed it, but I don't see that as changing too much unless things went really poorly, which there's absolutely no sign of.