Return of the King: critics choice for best picture

[LightPhoenix]

My gf saw Cold Mountain, and her description of it was, "A good movie, and obviously made for the Oscars, and will probably win." Not that she's an expert, more that she's pretty on the ball for these things.

My question is, why does anyone care? Who cares about a bunch of stodgy Academy people? All the recognition FotR, TTT, and RotK need is in the numbers. None of the other candidates did near as well in the box office. And everyone knows it. Which is why it doesn't matter if RotK wins or not.

My theory though is this. We all know that the Academy is a highly political organization. Political in the sense that they don't necessarily (or IMO often) make their decisions based on the merits of a movie, but on external influences as well. Why didn't FotR win? Simple - the Academy chose to simply give PJ the award when the whole trilogy was finished. They decided on this almost as soon as FotR came out - it was never in the running. They know he (and the movie) deserves some kind of award. They just chose to hold off.

Now, the interesting award will be Best Adaptation, which will be quite contested.

Question for the trivia buffs out there. If RotK wins, would it be the first time a sci-fi/fantasy movie wins Best Picture, Best Director, and/or Best Adaptation?

 

[Hypersmurf]

I saw two guys sail what looked like a schooner or a brigantine.

But you're forgetting one thing, mate.

One of them was Captain Jack Sparrow!

I saw somebody take seriously the suggestion that throwing out the anchor was a clever tactic in naval combat.

That, you'll note, wasn't Captain Jack Sparrow.

-Hyp.

 

[barsoomcore]

But one of them was Captain Jack Sparrow!

See, now, if they'd only hired Captain Jack Sparrow to write and direct the picture, we'd be talking solid gold, baby.

 

[Mark]

My prediction: ROTK wins the Oscar for Best Picture.

I'm hoping for this as well, unless they want to create a special Oscar award specifically for this instance to honor all three films as the colossal achievement it is.

 

[Hypersmurf]

I'm hoping for this as well, unless they want to create a special Oscar award specifically for this instance to honor all three films as the colossal achievement it is.

Apparently online bookies are giving odds of 1-4 or 1-5 for RotK to take Best Picture.

Which is pretty promising...

-Hyp.

 

[LightPhoenix]

Apparently online bookies are giving odds of 1-4 or 1-5 for RotK to take Best Picture.

Which is pretty promising...

-Hyp.

Considering there are, what, 5 films nominated usually? 1-5 odds isn't very good at all. In fact, it's pretty much saying it could be any of them.

 

[barsoomcore]

1-5 odds isn't very good at all. In fact, it's pretty much saying it could be any of them.

I think you're misunderstanding the notion of "odds". 1-5 means "bet 5, win 1."

As opposed to 5-1, which means "bet 1, win 5."

1-5 odds doesn't mean there's a one-in-five chance of winning -- not to a bookie, anyway. It means the result is considered so likely by the bookmaker that they won't risk very much money on it, in the hopes of getting more people to bet on the "longer shots" -- which on average will make more money for the bookie.

Odds offered by a bookie don't have any necessary connection to actual probabilities -- though bookies wish they did. But in any event, odds of 1-5 indicate a great deal of confidence in the outcome.

 

[reapersaurus]

I saw two guys sail what looked like a schooner or a brigantine. I saw somebody take seriously the suggestion that throwing out the anchor was a clever tactic in naval combat.

You DO realize that publically defending the Dungeons & Dragons movie forever nullifies your ability/right to be this nitpicky, don't you?

 

[Ranger REG]

My theory though is this. We all know that the Academy is a highly political organization. Political in the sense that they don't necessarily (or IMO often) make their decisions based on the merits of a movie, but on external influences as well. Why didn't FotR win? Simple - the Academy chose to simply give PJ the award when the whole trilogy was finished. They decided on this almost as soon as FotR came out - it was never in the running. They know he (and the movie) deserves some kind of award. They just chose to hold off.

Wait a minute. They're going to create a new category called "Best Film Trilogy of the past 6 years"?

I'm sorry, but holding off until the last film is released when they should be judging each of the threes film separately on their own merit for each of the award year deadline ... that ain't right nor fair to all the other films that production companies tries to get it released before the qualifying deadline for Oscar contention.

 

[Barendd Nobeard]

Now, the interesting award will be Best Adaptation, which will be quite contested.

Question for the trivia buffs out there. If RotK wins, would it be the first time a sci-fi/fantasy movie wins Best Picture, Best Director, and/or Best Adaptation?

Hard to tell for Best Adapated Screenplay. (But I believe the answer is "Yes" for the Picture & Director categories.)

The category wasn't always called that. There used to be three writing awards: Best Writing-Original Story, Best Writing-Screenplay, and Best Original Screenplay.

Here Comes Mr. Jordan (later remade as Heaven Can Wait) won 2 writing Oscars: Best Writing-Original Story and Best Writing-Screenplay. I guess the story won and then the "adaptation" screenplay won as well.

Miracle on 34th Street also won the same two awards.

After the categories evolved into things similar to today's categories, The Exorcist won Best Adapted Screenplay, but that's not sci-fi/fantasy. Same with Silence of the Lambs, which some call a "horror" film (though I think of it as a thriller, not horror, since there are no fantasy elements). SotL also won Best Director, Best Picture, and both major Acting awards.