Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[Nifft]

So where's the Exalted SRD? What type of license does the Exalted OGL come with?

I too would be quite interested in some Exalted OGL / SRD.

Dancey, make it happen.

Cheers, -- N

 

[BryonD]

Give me something that isn't pure conjecture and I can address it. I probably wouldn't bother, because I have no horse in this race, but at least you would have a valid point then.

lol
There is plenty there, both conjecture and non-conjecture, that may be addressed. You are using circular logic. You don't need to demonstrate a lack of substance because after all, there is no substance.... sigh

Of course, even if it was 100% conjecture, false conjecture can be exposed.
Go for it.

What outside parties think is going to happen to D&D in the future is mostly useless, in the same way that a layman's thoughts on what the weather is going to be in the future are mostly useless. Hey, when I woke up this morning and there were dark clouds overhead, I was positive it was going to rain.

I think equating Dancey to an outsider equivalent to a total layman weather forecaster is either ill-considered or intentionally misleading.

That said, I do agree that it isn't that big a deal.
To me the amusing observation is that so many people toss his claims out the window (still without actually responding to the points themselves) because he "has a horse in the race". And yet the people most worked up here are the ones who take WotC comments as gospel. I find it quite amusing.

The benefit that other games would gain from a perception of D&D decline is minimal. Whereas the gain or harm WotC would see based on how the status of D&D is perceived would be much more significant. Though even that is far from the factor that will make or break the game.

I think that demonstrating a position as wrong is better than ad hominem attacks.
I think that declaring a position to be unsubstantiated and therefore refusing to offer any form of rebuttal is a very weak form of dodge. I think that consistently avoiding rebuttal and leaning on change-the-subject responses is pretty damning of the opposing stance.
I think even if Dancey is correct in his PHB2 claims, it is way over-stated to claim this constitutes a "death spiral".
I think WotC has vastly more reason to spin the data than Dancey.
I think that PHB2 sales are good.
I think that 9 months after the release of the game itself, PHB2 sales better be good or the game is in real trouble.
I think that, taken as a whole group, the 4E target audience is distinctly less inclined to buy a lot of supplements than the 3E target audience was.
I think the people who told me the edition wars would be over by the end of last summer were wrong.

 

[Invisible Stalker]

I'm having a contest between D&D, comic books and horse racing as to which one I can spend money and support yet drive into extinction at the same time.

 

[pawsplay]

The solution to the "death spiral" is pretty straightforward.

- Develop products slowly. Forget about constant growth. This may be heretical to Hasbro, but in the end, there are only so many people in this world willing to sacrifice their Saturday afternoons to pretend to slay orcs for gold. Instead, tend your customers lovingly and patiently.
- One substantially new edition every ten years, at most. Instead, focus on fixing errata and improving the readability of the books.
- Roll out new supplements that are fairly modular. This is your evergreen stuff.
- Sell objects of convenience. Pre-made NPCs, modules, nonstandard monsters, equipment packs, etc.
- Lifestyle items. The day will not come when you cannot sell a T-shirt with a dragon on it to a geek.

How to do things wrong:
- Continually try to establish a beachhead on a mass market for RPGs that does not exist. There is plenty of untapped market out there, but they are not lurking in Borders or the mall waiting to be pried away from their Pokemon, WoW, or collapsible skooters.
- Repeat the costly cycle of development often.
- When trying to create a product that could be either awesome or disdained (e.g., an adventure module, more monsters), set deadlines and force production to move ahead, rather than letting development follow the availability of qualified, careful people.
- View your customer's wallets as well-defended fortresses that must be breached and conquered, or else die trying.
- Try to create material that is not likely to be offensive to the parents of the typical fifteen year old.

 

[Spatula]

There is plenty there, both conjecture and non-conjecture, that may be addressed. You are using circular logic. You don't need to demonstrate a lack of substance because after all, there is no substance.... sigh

Of course, even if it was 100% conjecture, false conjecture can be exposed.
Go for it.

Well I had a long post typed out but the 404 goblins ate it. So quick summary:

"The regressive forces are in control." Are they? Maybe he has an accurate picture of the current polticial situation inside WotC's management. Seeing as he hasn't worked there in years (and furthermore, works for the competition so his views are potentially biased), I am skeptical. Whatever information he's getting from friends still working there is second-hand and most likely incomplete.

It's equally possible that the "regressive forces" have scored a one-time victory with the PDF thing, having an easy case to make to the prime decision makers: low sales, high piracy, creates conflict with loyal retailers.

"OGL." That decision happened long ago, so if the "regressive forces" were running the show at that point, other signs of the apocalypse other than the PDF thing would have turned up by now, no? D&D is still more "open" to 3rd party participation than it was pre-OGL, and moreso than most (all?) other major RPGs (that aren't d20-derived, and thus open by definition). Not embracing 100% open gaming isn't a sign of regressive leadership, unless White Wolf and other non-d20 industry players are all equally backwards-thinking.

Everything else: conjecture & predictions based on conjecture. The RPGA hasn't been cut to my knowledge, no one outside WotC knows the status or the current funding of the flubbed DDI apps, no one outside WotC has WotC's sales data, quality hasn't been cut, etc. etc.

And even if some or all of those business contractions did happen, is it because of the "regressive forces" are running the show, or because we've been teetering on the edge of a global financial meltdown? Or some mixture of the two?

I think equating Dancey to an outsider equivalent to a total layman weather forecaster is either ill-considered or intentionally misleading.

If he's basing his statements off some inside info (which he makes no claim of), he can cough that up. Otherwise it's just an opinion regarding a business competitor, one whose leaderhip has partially rolled back the one (good) thing that he's known within the industry for. Like I said before, we're all stuck reading the tea leaves. The people who have the actual data that one could form meaningful predictions from aren't going to make it public, making this whole conversation irrelevant.

and yet here we are on page 7.... sigh.

 

[Thauredhel]

Forget about constant growth. This may be heretical to Hasbro,

Heretical might be an understatement. It is "Profit Growth or Close Shop. If we arn't Expanding we are Dying!!!1!1!1!!!ZOMG! and we should just close it down right now to avoid throwing good money after bad!"

 

[BryonD]

So you are not going to expose any false conjecture. You are just going to be round about in agreeing that it is conjecture and we don't know the truth from either side.

Simply being conjecture doesn't make it false. You are conjecturing that he doen't have good data. By your reasoning, you have now been proven wrong.

Obviously, it does not work quite that way.

Again, my point is that he makes a reasonable case that may be correct. It may not, but it certainly may. And WotC has vastly more reason to spin than he does.

Anyone who says the case is closed because WotC says so is fooling themselves.

I'll just say that my own anecodtal evidence supports the idea that WotC's talk involves a good chunk of spin. And more and more I hear secondary sources, most with little reason to advocate, that WotC's story doesn't smell quite right. Could all that still be wrong? Of course. But it could also be right and being closed minded in blind faith to one side is silly.

 

[carmachu]

He also works for White Wolf, which is basically D&D's biggest competitor for largest tabletop game franchise. Anything negative Dancey says about D&D can only benefit his company. He's certainly not losing anything by convincing people that OMG DND IS DYING LOL

Yeah, I'd have to say between the GAMA fiasco and his possible vested interest in the failure of 4e, anything Ryan Dancey says is questionable at best. While his thoughts are an interesting read, they can't be taken as anything more than that.

So then, by an extention of that logic, anything Scott Rouse says, or other WotC employees come on and say, is questionable at best since they have a very vested interest inthe success 4e?

I'm curious to see where exactly the line is going to be drawn.

 

[Spatula]

So you are not going to expose any false conjecture.

So, show me where I ever said anything about "false" conjecture.

You are just going to be round about in agreeing that it is conjecture...

Well, yes. Dancey's statement was a hypothesis of future events, based on unknowable data. That was my point this whole time, but you kept insisting that someone should disprove it somehow. Both the future and WotC's internal numbers are unknown to Dancey and to everyone here, so refuting his words is rather impossible.

 

[avin]

I think that demonstrating a position as wrong is better than ad hominem attacks.
I think that declaring a position to be unsubstantiated and therefore refusing to offer any form of rebuttal is a very weak form of dodge. I think that consistently avoiding rebuttal and leaning on change-the-subject responses is pretty damning of the opposing stance.
I think even if Dancey is correct in his PHB2 claims, it is way over-stated to claim this constitutes a "death spiral".
I think WotC has vastly more reason to spin the data than Dancey.
I think that PHB2 sales are good.
I think that 9 months after the release of the game itself, PHB2 sales better be good or the game is in real trouble.
I think that, taken as a whole group, the 4E target audience is distinctly less inclined to buy a lot of supplements than the 3E target audience was.
I think the people who told me the edition wars would be over by the end of last summer were wrong.

XP for you.