Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[Tallifer]

Indeed. The only "Essentials" book which is exclusively for new players is the Red Box Starter Set, which does not even have character generation rules for its premade characters.

All the other Essentials books introduce additional material which is integrated seamlessly into the existing Fourth Edition game system.

 

[MrMyth]

I thought their purpose was to market the game to new audiences in order to draw in new gamers and expand the player base.

Granted, I could be totally wrong in that.

So, basically, we should draw no differences between something like the Essentials line and, say, a new Eberron book, or a new Martial powers splat?

As I see it:
Essentials Primary Goal - Draw in new players.
Essentials Secondary Goal - Draw back in lapsed players from classic editions.
Essentials Tertiary Goal - Provide new options and resources for existing players.

Other elements may have influenced the design, but the material in them is 4E material usable by 4E players. Now, some people may not want or need that - just like some might not pick up the Eberron Player's Guide because they don't need any new Eberron material, or Martial Power 2 because they don't play any Martial classes.

If you liked the idea of playing a Seeker, it was worth picking up the PHB3. If you like the idea of player a Thief or Cavalier, you can pick up the appropriate Hero book. DM's Kit and Monster Vault may not be quite as expansive as the DMG2 or MM3, but there probably are useful elements in them for existing players as well.

Really, the Red Box is the only thing that is for new players only. The rest are perfectly viable products for existing 4E players.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

In my experience, these sort of threads tend to be categorized by one or both of the following:

1. People who conclude that D&D is dying because D&D no longer caters to their preferences.

2. People who would like to see D&D fail, so it can be remade in a manner better suiting their preferences.


I would assert that the two above statements are just as applicable to Ryan Dancy as they would be to the average anonymous forum poster.

 

[ggroy]

In my experience, these sort of threads tend to be categorized by one or both of the following:

1. People who conclude that D&D is dying because D&D no longer caters to their preferences.

2. People who would like to see D&D fail, so it can be remade in a manner better suiting their preferences.


I would assert that the two above statements are just as applicable to Ryan Dancy as they would be to the average anonymous forum poster.

There's one simple explanation for this: ego.

Some individuals are so resentful about the fact that they themselves are not calling the shots. If they cannot have something (their way), then nobody else can have it. They rather see something destroyed which is a product of somebody else calling the shots.

 

[Ron]

If that's true, we should see ~24 products (2 years 4E). How come I see ~2.5 times that number of 4E books on my shelf?

More book space means that WotC is getting more money out of the property, either by producing more books, more hardcover books, or thicker books. Sure that softcover 3.0 adventure might be less thick, but that 4E adventure is 2.5 times as expensive ($9.95 vs. $24.95). The same sized adventures are 50% more expensive ($9.95 vs. $14.95) WotC has now moved to publishing very tiny race books. Half of that difference might be due to inflation, the other half on color prints and poster maps?

Not necessarily. One could argue that this is a sign they are concentrating in a very niche market where a few customers will buy several products to keep the money flowing.

I don't know if this is really happening. Only Wizards has access to the kind of data necessary to evaluate the situation. All we have now are wild guesses.

Quite frankly, people take Ryan Dancey too seriously. He is probably having some fun, enjoying the fact people are all worried by his unfounded opinions.

 

[ProfessorCirno]

There's one simple explanation for this: ego.

Some individuals are so resentful about the fact that they themselves are not calling the shots. If they cannot have something (their way), then nobody else can have it. They rather see something destroyed which is a product of somebody else calling the shots.

I agree it's pure ego, but I think it's even simpler then that. I don't think it's rooted in their desire to be calling the shots; rather, I think that's one of the many causes of something else.

Everyone wants to think of themselves as the model customer.

It's not something you just see in tabletop gaming either. "If I don't like it, nobody likes it, because my tastes are what the majority shares." It doesn't matter what the tastes are, be it someone decrying that Blizzard will fail because they dislike the art direction of Diablo 3 or someone proclaiming that this MMO will finally be the WoW killer, or someone deciding that it's so obvious Watchmen was a complete failure, I mean, I didn't see it.

It's the idea of "I represent the norm." And thus, when someone doesn't like "thing" and doesn't buy "thing" they assume nobody else is either.

Proclamations of 4e's doom have been around since before it came out. They all find their way to the same root. "I didn't like it, and I don't know of anyone else who liked it, so it's going to fail." Nevermind that often times they totally know people who liked it. It's those first four words that cause everything else. The same thing happened to Pathfinder on places like The Gaming Den: "We don't like it, so it must be a complete economic failure."

 

[DumbPaladin]

So, I have a question:

It's fairly safe to say (having seen nothing posted that suggests this) that there's no concrete evidence that 4E is doing badly or a drain on WotC, or even a mild failure.

Is there also no concrete evidence that it's doing well? Selling well? Making a profit? My own opinions about 4E aside, I'd actually like to know the facts.

 

[I'm A Banana]

It's fairly safe to say (having seen nothing posted that suggests this) that there's no concrete evidence that 4E is doing badly or a drain on WotC, or even a mild failure.

Is there also no concrete evidence that it's doing well? Selling well? Making a profit? My own opinions about 4E aside, I'd actually like to know the facts.

Yeah, this is right. There's no concrete evidence either way.

The reports we've heard from WotC directly aren't very useful, because WotC has an ulterior motive (they'd want to talk up the success of the game, and talk down the failures of the game, so the reported numbers are unreliable, or, at least, heavily skewed in favor of "it's selling like gangbusters!"). And no one else has any concrete information. Like most smart corporations, WotC isn't sharing sales information with the public.

Which is why even Ryan Dancey's comments seem narmed to me.

The earliest we can get an accurate picture of how 4e is doing/has done as an edition in comparison to 3e (because before that, there's no concrete sales info) will be when they announce 5e and start talking about all the things that 4e is doing wrong/has done wrong/will have done wrong, economically. What sold and what doesn't.

Everything before that point, if it ever comes, is vapid theoretical conjecture fueling partisan nerd rage.

 

[prosfilaes]

And no one else has any concrete information.

There's a bunch of concrete information out there. Amazon is pretty generous with information, and compares with other companies.

For one little bit of information, on Amazon, the Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Core Rulebook is #2,133 in book sales and there is no used books being sold under what Amazon would charge. The 4E PHB is #7,504 in sales and gently used books are being sold at 25% off--many of them labeled as remainders. 2E and 3.0 can be had for $6 (including shipping), but 3.5 is $25, $30 (including shipping) if you want one in good condition, and is #5,432 in sales.

Bestsellers in Gaming
#1: 4E Rules Compendium (#416 in sales)
#2: 4E Heroes of the Fallen Lands
#3: 4E Dungeon Tiles Master Set - The Dungeon
#4: Warhammer 40K RPG: Deathwatch Core Rulebook (#1,380 in sales)
#5: Dungeons & Dragons Fantasy Roleplaying Game: An Essential D&D Starter (#1,963 in sales)
#6: Pathfinder Roleplaying Game: Core Rulebook (#2,133 in sales)
#7: Lords of Madness: A D&D Miniatures 6-pc Booster Pack
#8: Pathfinder Roleplaying Game: Advanced Player's Guide (#2,814 in sales)
#9: 4E Essential Dungeon Master's Kit (#2,857)
#10: 4E D&D Gamma World Roleplaying Game (#3,781)
#11: Dark Sun Campaign Setting: A 4th Edition D&D Supplement
#12: Player's Handbook 2: A 4th Edition D&D Core Rulebook
#13: Monster Manual 3: A 4th Edition D&D Core Rulebook
#14: Psionic Power: A 4th Edition D&D Supplement
#15: 4E Essentials Heroes of the Forgotten Kingdoms
#16: 3.5 PHB (#5,432)
#17: 4E Essentials Monster Vault
#18: Rogue Trader: Into the Storm (Warhammer 40,000 Roleplay)
#19: Pathfinder Roleplaying Game: The Pathfinder Bestiary
#20: Player's Handbook 3: A 4th Edition D&D Core Rulebook
#21: 4E PHB (#7,540)

just looking at core books

#24: Dungeons and Dragons Core Rulebook Gift Set, 4th Edition (#9,598)
#29: Legend of the Five Rings 4th Edition RPG (#12,552)
#36: 3.0 PHB (#16,744)
(There are no systems not otherwise noted in the first 36 books.)

So D&D is still the monster of the roleplaying world. The problem is the forms of D&D are not entirely controlled by Hasbro; both Pathfinder and D&D 3.5 have significant followings. I'd say the fact both the Pathfinder core rulebook and the 3.5 PHB outsells the 4.0 PHB at Amazon is a big deal, along with the fact that the 4.0 PHB is starting to get remaindered and is starting to get undercut by used copies.

 

[AdmundfortGeographer]

There's a bunch of concrete information out there. Amazon is pretty generous with information, and compares with other companies.

None of that tells is what WotC considers a success in raw quantity. They budgeted for some quantity and we don't know if they hit that despite impressive-looking rankings. Then there is year-over-year sales numbers . . .