Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[M.L. Martin]

There's a bunch of concrete information out there. Amazon is pretty generous with information, and compares with other companies.

The problem is that Amazon is 'snapshot' data--how things are doing over an uncertain but apparently fairly short and recent period of time--and purely comparative. It makes it hard to tell how things are doing over the long term, or exactly how well a product ranked at X is doing compared to one ranked at Y.

It's still useful for seeing what's hot and what isn't, but it's not going to give us a very good picture of how 4E is doing over a two-year period in comparison to Pathfinder, or to the 3.5E launch.

 

[I'm A Banana]

There's a bunch of concrete information out there. Amazon is pretty generous with information, and compares with other companies.

In addition to the above points, I'd note that Amazon's snapshot is only one datapoint in an ocean of datapoints that we don't have. DDI subscription rates, FLGS sales, D&D Encounters or RPGA participation, expenses (including shelling out for DDI stuff), and even sales of things like board games and novels play into how well "D&D" is doing.

Again: No one has any real information that could truly sway the debate. It's speculation upon speculation, unless you happen to be a Hasbro accountant maybe.

 

[DumbPaladin]

That's right. Without information on whether or not WotC is making a profit or a loss, and whether said profit is within their deisred range, there's no way to calculate if 4E is doing well, doing poorly, breaking even, or anything else.

 

[prosfilaes]

None of that tells is what WotC considers a success in raw quantity.

The fact that 4E PHB is turning up remaindered tells us that they printed more than the market could hold.

It's still useful for seeing what's hot and what isn't, but it's not going to give us a very good picture of how 4E is doing over a two-year period in comparison to Pathfinder, or to the 3.5E launch.

The point was to respond to

Everything before that point, if it ever comes, is vapid theoretical conjecture fueling partisan nerd rage.

No; we're not going to get spoon-fed all the numbers we want. But we aren't numberless or theoretically conjecturing. We can say definitively that Pathfinder and 3.5 PHB are selling better than 4.0 PHB, and we can watch them change over time. If you want to know how it's doing over a two-year period, we're going to have to sample over a two year period, which is surely not beyond our abilities.

 

[AngryMojo]

We can say definitively that Pathfinder and 3.5 PHB are selling better than 4.0 PHB

We can't even say that. We can say that during the indicated time frame, Amazon sold more copies of Pathfinder than the 4e PhB. We have no reference as to how many were sold in that month, how many were sold in the previous month, or how many were sold in other sales channels.

The fact that the 4e PhB is popping up remaindered also says nothing to the success of the product. Last I checked, nearly every Stephen King book that is published winds up remaindered. I don't think you'd call a bestselling novel a failure, regardless of how many copies pop up on a bargain book rack in a year.

This provides a single point of data, and not even a complete point. It's like looking at a single FLGS that has sold a single copy of Pathfinder this week, but no copies of the 4e phb and claiming that Pathfinder is selling infinitely better than 4e.

Currently, the only people who have real, concrete evidence of sales all work at WotC. I'm sure if Amazon did a full analysis for some bizarre reason, you'd be able to extrapolate some data, but it would have to be Amazon themselves doing it. Quite simply put, there's not enough data out there available to us EN World users to draw any conclusion.

 

[Chrono22]

Release date probably plays a larger role. If someone has tracked standings by the day, for a year or more, then that would probably represent a trend. But just a snapshot isn't enough.

 

[prosfilaes]

The fact that the 4e PhB is popping up remaindered also says nothing to the success of the product. Last I checked, nearly every Stephen King book that is published winds up remaindered. I don't think you'd call a bestselling novel a failure, regardless of how many copies pop up on a bargain book rack in a year.

Books getting remaindered is expensive, and it does matter how many copies of the PHB pop up on a bargain book rack, because WotC has to keep it in print as long as they continue producing 4E products. A PHB doesn't have the rapid rise and fall of a bestselling novel.

It's like looking at a single FLGS that has sold a single copy of Pathfinder this week, but no copies of the 4e phb and claiming that Pathfinder is selling infinitely better than 4e.

If that FLGS was the world's largest online retailer, and one of the largest retailers in the world, I think I might fairly be critical of 4E PHB's sales.

Currently, the only people who have real, concrete evidence of sales all work at WotC. [...] Quite simply put, there's not enough data out there available to us EN World users to draw any conclusion.

Quite simply put, it's rare in life to have a plethora of exact information delivered to your fingertips. Nonetheless, there is almost invariably enough information to draw a tentative conclusion, if that's what you choose to do.

 

[I'm A Banana]

it does matter how many copies of the PHB pop up on a bargain book rack, because WotC has to keep it in print as long as they continue producing 4E products. A PHB doesn't have the rapid rise and fall of a bestselling novel.

That was sort of my point in another thread in pointing out that DDI might be the "new PHB," the new Evergreen sales. Perhaps people are being driven to the DDI, making 4e material subject to rapid rise and fall: the first month is all the sales that they really care about.

The point is less how true that might be, and more that it's one of many believable scenarios. Low PHB sales (or high PHB turnover) don't mean anything in isolation. They could be a datapoint, but we have so few datapoints, it's kind of like taking one strange bone from a dig in the Great Rift Valley and claiming that it shows that humans descended from dire mongoose.

Needs Moar Data.

If that FLGS was the world's largest online retailer, and one of the largest retailers in the world, I think I might fairly be critical of 4E PHB's sales.

Why? Online retailers are just a fraction of sales, especially given how hard WotC is pushing brick-and-mortar FLGS (which is overall a strategy to keep D&D groups forming -- few D&D Groups form over Amazon comments). 4EPHB sales also don't tell us how the edition is doing as a whole.

Quite simply put, it's rare in life to have a plethora of exact information delivered to your fingertips. Nonetheless, there is almost invariably enough information to draw a tentative conclusion, if that's what you choose to do.

Speculation upon speculation. Which is fine, and can be fun, but doesn't project anything concrete. And in this case, it tends to be people saying "My edition is selling great, your edition is selling poorly," which isn't, IMO, a very useful conversation, even if we DID have the evidence for it one way or the other.

 

[Neonchameleon]

There's a bunch of concrete information out there. Amazon is pretty generous with information, and compares with other companies.

For one little bit of information, on Amazon, the Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Core Rulebook is #2,133 in book sales and there is no used books being sold under what Amazon would charge. The 4E PHB is #7,504 in sales and gently used books are being sold at 25% off--many of them labeled as remainders. 2E and 3.0 can be had for $6 (including shipping), but 3.5 is $25, $30 (including shipping) if you want one in good condition, and is #5,432 in sales.

Honestly? I'd be surprised if the 4e PHB was selling well around now. Who would the market be? New players are being directed into Essentials. And old players either have it or are going for DDI. So why by the PHB now? After all it's still in print.

 

[ObsidianCrane]

Its a funny thing, but I remember being involved in gaming stores in the early 90's when people were saying CCGs and video games would kill tabletop RPGs. Hmm its 20 years later and DnD is still apparently dieing.

I think the more important things to look at in those sales figures are the Rules Compendium and Heroes of the Fallen Lands. They are the new entry point product, and the new base line for the 4E rules, not PHB1 & co. They are the 3.5PHB to the 4EPHB being 3.0. WotC might not be admitting that in public but that is their clear market position.