Pathfinder 1E Ryan Dancey Predicts Pathfinder RPG in '06

[Desdichado]

That RS Dancey is one crafty fox.

I agree with him entirely up to the, "...and probably crushing it." point.

The D&D brand is stronger than he thinks. A significant number of folks will go wherever the brand goes. (Clark Peterson proudly counts himself in this group-- and for the record, I am not knocking it.)

Also, I think you could nitpick his prediction a bit; although it's moving away from the SRD, 4e doesn't really seem to be moving too much away from the D&D paradigm, the shrill voices of internet minority notwithstanding.

Still, it's interesting how close he got even so.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

I guess I still don't see how the divergence thing really matters, though. If third parties don't have access to the ruleset and don't have access to any branding that lets them indicate compatibility, what does it matter that they can fudge a mostly-compatible product? And why would WotC care?

I'll tackle your 3 questions one at a time.

Access to the ruleset: It's not necessary to have access to the ruleset if the ruleset can be derived from Open Content. From what I have seen of 4e, it does not diverge from 3e very much in this respect. I think folks will be able to create 4e compatible stuff without the GSL. When Ryan talks about walking away from the SRD, he means wholesale genocide of sacred cows. The six ability scores, classes with levels, AC, d20, etc.

Access to branding: That's the biggie. No company (of any size) is going to make any serious investment in creating 4e compatible stuff without the branding that the GSL will hopefully enable. You may see some smaller PDF publishers create compatible products for "The current edition of the world's most popular fantasy roleplaying game!" but that's really not any different than the way things have always been.

Why does WOTC care: I don't know. But they obviously do care. The OGL is gone, to be replaced by the GSL. I don't even need to know what the GSL will entail to observe that they have walked away from the OGL. They've actually very specifically reversed their position on it.

 

[SSquirrel]

Traditions matter but sacred cow steak is a tasty, tasty thing indeed They reimagined many things in D&D yes, to which I say good. The game had gotten to a point where way too much was just accepted automatically "oh look trolls, we need to blah blah". Yes, that's out of character knowledge possibly, but the point is that everything is so well known.

It goes back to that vaunted "Sense of Wonder" that some people seem to wax on endlessly about. They're trying to make things more interesting again, which I'm kinda fine with. That goes double for the Realms. It was too well explored, too many products had detailed it down to very fine grain detail. Have a big event happen, then shoot 100 years into the future of the setting. Suddenly not everything in the Realms is as you once knew it. I know many people see these changes and just get mad b/c things are changing. I see things changing and I'm excited at the sense of newness.

 

[ssampier]

I agree. I still think that, in general, most players will stick with D&D - regardless of any d20/OGL game. Unfortunate, but, I think, true.

We'll know in four years!

{groan}

 

[crow81]

I agree. I still think that, in general, most players will stick with D&D - regardless of any d20/OGL game. Unfortunate, but, I think, true.

Man I hope you are wrong I'd like to think that RPG players aren't mindless lemmings that follow a name regardless of quality.

I for one would like to see the better system rise to the top. Else WotC will just churn out edition after edition for as long as people will buy them

 

[Hippy]

I agree. I still think that, in general, most players will stick with D&D - regardless of any d20/OGL game. Unfortunate, but, I think, true.





{groan}

I think they will buy the core rulebooks to see what the game is like and maybe mine some ideas, but I am not convinced they will abandon all other versions of the game and play strictly 4E. I myself plan on buying the core three (most likely after the first errata is put in), but I have huge investment in 3.5 materials and love the game, so I see no reason to change anytime soon (nor do the players in my group). I think unfortunately, that this desire by WOTC and Hasbro to reinvent the need for new book sales every three-five years is likely to fracture the D&D market. I plan on going with Paizo and the 3.5 compatibility. If this takes off other third party companies I think will jump on board and support Paizo as well. There was a much larger segment of the D&D gamer community that was dissatisfied wit the 2E rules, making 3E and 3.5 a very welcome change. I am not convinced there are the same or similar numbers this time around for the 4E rules. WOTC is banking on grabbing the WOW crowd and bringing in new younger video gamers into the tabletop realm. I feel they are doing this at the expense of the long-time gamer market that has been their bread and butter for 30 years, but maybe I'm wrong...we'll see what happens :\

 

[Ourph]

As for the tolerance of those invested in the player network, I think it's not as dire as Dancey believed.

I agree. Although I think the idea of networking externalities working in the RPG field is a valid one, I've never believed the effect was as strong as Ryan seems to think it is. As long as the game uses the same basic d20 mechanic, I think most players will be fine with adapting to the remainder of the rules changes.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Man I hope you are wrong I'd like to think that RPG players aren't mindless lemmings that follow a name regardless of quality.

I for one would like to see the better system rise to the top. Else WotC will just churn out edition after edition for as long as people will buy them

I think quality does count, but not necessarily in a way that's good for the RPG market.
But the big brand "D&D" will stay a common entry to the game. If the quality of D&D is bad, this might lead to less people playing D&D or D&D related games.
Isn't this in some ways what happened with TSR/AD&D and White Wolf/Storyteller? AD&D material was no longer seen as adequate, and people either gave up playing or switched to other games, like White Wolfs Storyteller system.

If the big systems turn out to be bad, hidden gems are exactly that - hidden. Nobody sees them, because they did give up to early.

Luckily, I don't see a risk in seeing D&D 4 of low quality. I don't see 3E as of low quality either, but I still believe 4E will be still be better, but maybe it will also have some different strength then 3E...

 

[buzz]

I for one would like to see the better system rise to the top. Else WotC will just churn out edition after edition for as long as people will buy them

I don't think the quality of WotC product is even in question. They make great stuff; the core, at least.

...and the other great RPGs right now are being made by DIY indie publishers, who will never conquer WotC's market share.

 

[SSquirrel]

I don't think the quality of WotC product is even in question. They make great stuff; the core, at least.

...and the other great RPGs right now are being made by DIY indie publishers, who will never conquer WotC's market share.

Yeah White Wolf would be in a good position to capitalize on any fracturing of the D&D market except the New World of Darkness settings are terrible, w/the exception of Changeling. Exalted is popular, but the 1st Ed of it didn't move me in the least, so I'm not expecting much from the 2nd Ed of the game. RIFTS seems a perennial book mover, but I don't know how it truly stacks up.

Also Hippy, based on the current Alpha compatibility is not what I would call an exact thing so far for Pathfinder.